The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for December 2 – 6, 2024

The upcoming week is set to feature several high-impact events and data releases that could shape market dynamics across major currencies and sectors. Key indicators like the Nonfarm Payrolls report will offer critical insights into labor market conditions, while other reports will provide updates on inflation, employment trends, and economic performance across different regions. These events will likely drive market sentiment and trading strategies in the days ahead.

Monday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Tuesday 09:30 am (GMT+2) – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

Wednesday 2:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: GDP q/q (AUD)

Wednesday 15:15 (GMT+2) – USA: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

Wednesday 17:30 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USD: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index that indicates sector expansion if above 50 and contraction if below. The report tracks changes in key indicators like New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the manufacturing sector’s health and the broader economy.

In October 2024, US manufacturing activity declined for the seventh consecutive month, with the PMI falling to 46.5, its lowest level this year. Key indices such as New Orders, Production, and Employment remained in contraction, driven by weak demand and reduced output.

Only two major industries—Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products, and Computer & Electronic Products—reported growth, while most others contracted. Rising material costs and economic uncertainty continue to pressure the sector, signaling ongoing challenges ahead.

Economists anticipate a contractionary reading of 47.6.

09:30 am – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the changes in the prices of goods and services that reflect the spending habits of private households in Switzerland.

It shows how much consumers need to adjust their spending to maintain the same level of consumption despite price fluctuations.

Switzerland’s annual inflation rate dropped to 0.6% in October 2024, its lowest since June 2021, down from 0.8% in September. Declines were noted in transport, household goods, and energy, while food prices slightly rebounded. Month-on-month, CPI fell 0.1%, marking five months of no growth, driven by lower costs for hotels, fuel, and vegetables.

Economists expect that monthly CPI will fall by 0.1%.

17:00 – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

It’s a monthly report based on employers’ surveys, indicating job vacancies in the US commercial, industrial, and office areas, excluding the farming industry.

Growth in the indicator may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

Job openings held at 7.4 million in September, down 1.9 million year-over-year. Hires remained steady at 5.6 million, while separations, including 3.1 million quits and 1.8 million layoffs, showed little change. Notable shifts included fewer openings in healthcare and government but increases in finance. The labor market remains stable with minor sectoral variations.

Economists anticipate that the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will report 7.49 million job openings.

2:30 am – Australia: GDP q/q (AUD)

The text reflects Australia’s economic activity and health by measuring the change in the total value of all goods and services produced in the current quarter compared to the previous one. Growth reported can positively impact AUD quotes.

Australia’s economy grew by 0.2% in the June quarter of 2024, marking the eleventh consecutive quarter of expansion. Annual growth for 2023-24 stood at 1.5%, the weakest since 1991-92 outside the pandemic era. Subdued household demand weighed on GDP, detracting 0.1 percentage points, while government consumption provided a steady 0.3 percentage-point boost.

Economists forecast a quarterly growth rate of 0.6%.

15:15 – USA: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

It tracks the monthly change in employment across 19 manufacturing sectors in the US, excluding the agriculture and government sectors, based on the aggregated and anonymized payroll data of more than 25 million US employees.

In October 2024, the US private sector added 233,000 jobs, the highest gain since July 2023. Service industries led the growth, while manufacturing lost 19,000 jobs. Annual pay increased by 4.6% for job stayers and 6.2% for job changers, with large establishments contributing 140,000 new positions.

Analysts expect that the US private sector will add 166,000 jobs.

17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

The ISM Services PMI measures activity in the US service sector for the reporting month. It is derived from a survey of supply executives in the services sector. Readings above 50 can have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

The Services PMI rose to 56% in October 2024, the highest level since July 2022, marking the fourth consecutive month of expansion. Business activity and new orders showed strong growth at 57.2% and 57.4%, respectively, while employment rebounded to 53%. Supplier deliveries slowed, pushing the index to 56.4%.

Despite some challenges like hurricane impacts and political uncertainty, 14 industries reported growth, reflecting robust momentum in the services sector.

Economists expect a reading of 55.6.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

In the week ending November 23, seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims fell by 2,000 to 213,000, while the four-week moving average dropped to 217,000. Insured unemployment remained at 1.3%, with 1.91 million people claiming benefits, the highest since November 2021.

Analysts predict a monthly reading of 215,000.

15:30 – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Change in the number of employed individuals in the previous month. In general, when the actual figure is greater than the forecast, it is positive for the currency.

Employment rose slightly by 15,000 (+0.1%) in October, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.5%. Gains were seen among male youth (+25,000), while declines occurred for women 55+ (-15,000).

Analysts predict that Canada’s employment will grow by 13,500.

15:30 – USD: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

The Nonfarm Payrolls report shows the number of new jobs added in the US across all non-agricultural sectors for a given month. An increase in this indicator can positively impact the value of the dollar.

US nonfarm payrolls added 12,000 jobs in October 2024, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Healthcare (+52,000) and government (+40,000) saw gains, while manufacturing (-46,000) and temporary help services (-49,000) declined. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% to $35.46, up 4.0% annually.

Economists predict the creation of 205,000 new jobs.

Monday, December 2: Zscaler (ZS)

Tuesday, December 3: Salesforce Inc (CRM)

Thursday, December 5: Hewlett Packard (HPE)

In conclusion, the week ahead presents a critical lineup of economic indicators and market-moving reports, highlighting trends in labor markets, inflation, and sectoral performance. These data points, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls report, will offer valuable insights into economic health and provide traders with guidance for navigating a dynamic market environment.