Markets Hold Steady as May Closes with Mixed Signals and Shifting Policy Winds (May 26-31 Recap)

The final week of May 2025 delivered a wave of key economic data and corporate earnings that shaped global market sentiment. Central banks in Australia and New Zealand adjusted policy stances amid shifting inflation trends, while the US economy showed signs of cooling with weaker GDP and rising unemployment claims. Meanwhile, inflation remained sticky, keeping rate expectations in focus. China’s manufacturing sector continued to contract, reinforcing concerns over global growth. In markets, major indices advanced, while commodities like gold and oil declined. On the earnings front, tech and retail giants like HP, Nvidia, and Costco posted mixed results, reflecting diverging pressures across sectors.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Wednesday, May 28

4:30 am – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)

Australia’s consumer inflation held steady at 2.4% in April, slightly above forecasts but still within the central bank’s 2–3% target. Core inflation edged up, though falling fuel and slowing rent growth suggest easing price pressures. Markets still expect rate cuts, with a July move seen as likely.

The AUDUSD decreased by 0.26% compared to the previous day’s closing price.

5:00 am – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)

New Zealand’s central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.25% and signaled a slightly deeper easing path ahead, citing global risks from US trade policies. Inflation remains within target, giving the RBNZ room to support weak domestic growth.

The NZDUSD exchange rate increased by 0.31% from the previous day.

Thursday, May 29

15:30 – USA: Prelim GDP q/q (USD)

US GDP shrank 0.2% in Q1 2025, down from 2.4% growth in Q4 2024, mainly due to higher imports and lower government spending. Corporate profits fell by $118.1 billion after rising sharply in the prior quarter, while inflation remained elevated.

The EURUSD gained 0.65% compared to the previous day.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

US initial jobless claims rose by 14,000 to 240,000 in the week ending May 24, while insured unemployment climbed to 1.92 million—the highest since November 2021. The insured jobless rate ticked up to 1.3%, signaling a softening labor market.

The USDJPY exchange rate decreased by 0.44% compared to the previous day.

Friday, May 30

All Day – Germany: Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)

Germany’s inflation rate is expected to be 2.1% in May 2025, with consumer prices up 0.1% from April. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is estimated at 2.8%.

The EURUSD edged down by 0.16% compared to the previous day.

15:30 – Canada GDP m/m (CAD)

Canada’s GDP rose 0.1% in March after a 0.2% dip in February, led by gains in mining, construction, and key service sectors. Nine of 20 industries saw growth.

The USDCAD rate lost 0.51% from the prior session’s close.

15:30 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

In April 2025, US personal income rose by 0.8% ($210.1 billion), with disposable personal income up by the same rate. Consumer spending increased modestly by 0.2% ($47.8 billion), driven by higher spending on services. The personal saving rate rose to 4.9%. Inflation, measured by the PCE price index, rose 0.1% from March and 2.1% year-over-year, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) increased 2.5% over the same period.

The Pound Sterling weakened against the US dollar, falling 0.13% since the previous session.

Saturday, May 31

4:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

China’s manufacturing activity contracted for a second consecutive month in May, with the official PMI rising slightly to 49.5 from 49.0 in April, remaining below the 50 threshold that indicates growth. The continued slowdown, driven by ongoing trade tensions with the US, has heightened expectations for additional government stimulus to bolster the economy.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   1. Crude oil prices decreased by 1.65% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   1. Brent was down 3.57% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 2.04% weekly decline
4. Silver
   1. XAGUSD decreased by 1.49% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 increased by 1.74%
2. DJIA was up by 1.50%
3. NASDAQ 100 increased by 2.03%

Top Gainers

1. LiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR) 345.55%
2. Basel Medical Group Ltd (BMGL) 343.80%
3. Spero Therapeutics, Inc. (SPRO) 259.04%

Top Losers

1. Ekso Bionics Holdings, Inc. (EKSO) -92.80%
2. Elong Power Holding Limited (ELPW) -77.37%
3. Patriot National Bancorp, Inc. (PNBK) -73.15%

Company Earnings (May 26 – 31)

Wednesday, May 28: HP Inc. (HPQ)

Wednesday, May 28: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Thursday, May 29: Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

HP missed both earnings and revenue estimates in Q2 2025, reporting $0.71 EPS versus the expected $0.80 and $13.22 billion in revenue versus the $13.42 billion forecast.

HPQ shares dropped 11% over the past week.

After a stellar 2024, Nvidia’s stock struggled in early 2025 amid trade tensions and slowing AI capex growth. However, strong Q1 results—driven by surging demand for AI chips—sparked a 50% rebound from April lows. Despite China-related write-offs, revenue jumped 69% year-over-year to $44.1 billion, and adjusted EPS beat estimates. Wall Street remains optimistic as Nvidia continues to dominate the AI chip market.

NVDA shares rose by 2.92% compared to the previous week.

Costco beat Q3 2025 earnings and revenue estimates, reporting $4.28 EPS and $63.21 billion in revenue, driven by strong consumer demand. Despite tariff pressures, the company remains committed to maintaining low prices, according to CEO Ron Vachris.

COST shares rose 3.14% from the previous week.

Conclusion

As May closed, global markets digested a mixed set of economic signals—ranging from slowing US growth and labor softness to ongoing trade tensions and weakening Chinese manufacturing. Central banks are beginning to pivot cautiously, while inflation data keeps monetary policy in sharp focus. Equities ended the week on a positive note, supported by strong tech and retail earnings despite headwinds in commodities. With uncertainty lingering, investor attention now turns to June’s critical data releases and central bank guidance to gauge the path ahead.