As global markets drift between resilience and recalibration, a fresh round of high-impact economic releases promises to test the pulse of growth, sentiment, and policy expectations. Flash PMIs across Europe and the US, retail sales from key economies, and labor data converge at a critical junction, offering a composite view of economic momentum under pressure. Meanwhile, Gold—traditionally seen as a key barometer of uncertainty—continues its ascent, technically strong but not immune to exhaustion. Against this backdrop, markets face a delicate balance between trend continuation and inflection.
High Impact Economic Events
Wednesday 10:15 am (GMT+3) – France: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
Wednesday 10:15 am (GMT+3) – France: French Flash Services PMI (EUR)
Wednesday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI(EUR)
Wednesday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Germany: Flash Services PMI(EUR)
Wednesday 11:30 am (GMT+3) – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI(GBP)
Wednesday 11:30 am (GMT+3) – UK: Flash Services PMI(GBP)
Gold has extended its rally following the April 7 rebound from $2,536.38, underpinned by the formation of a Morning Star candlestick formation—a classic bullish reversal pattern. This technical development has positioned the metal to establish a new all-time high near $3,499.86 per troy ounce.
From a technical standpoint, the uptrend is supported by multiple indicators. The Momentum Oscillator remains firmly above the 100 baseline, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to hold above the neutral 50 level, and price action remains elevated above both the 20- and 50-period EMAs. Collectively, these signals suggest strong underlying trend strength and reinforce bullish market sentiment.
That said, emerging signs of exhaustion warrant close attention. A negative divergence between the price and the Momentum Oscillator, alongside a retreat in RSI from overbought territory, could indicate a cooling phase. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the potential for a near-term pause or corrective pullback cannot be ruled out.
Key Resistance Levels
If buyers maintain control of the market, traders may shift their focus to the following four potential resistance levels:
3499.86: The initial resistance level is estimated at 3499.86, mirroring the all-time high reached on April 22.
3555.58: The second price target is seen at 3555.58, reflecting the weekly resistance, R3, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
3720.13: The third price target is established at 3720.13.
3850.59: An additional price objective is estimated at 3850.59, representing the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 3167.53 to 2956.38.
Key Support Levels
If sellers take control of the market, traders may focus on the following four key support levels:
3292.68: The initial support level is seen at 3292.68, representing the weekly Pivot Point, PP, estimated using the standard methodology.
3167.53: The second support level is positioned at 3167.53, aligning with the peak from April 3.
3064.00: The third downside target is noted at 3064.00, corresponding to the 50-period Exponential Moving Average and the weekly support, S3, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
2956.38: An additional downside target is determined at 2956.38, reflecting the swing low from April 7.
Fundamentals
Gold surged to all-time highs this week as rising economic uncertainty pushed investors toward traditional safe havens. Analysts point to escalating trade tensions, fears over inflation, and President Trump’s renewed criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as key drivers behind the rally. The IMF downgraded global and US growth forecasts, further fueling market anxiety. While Gold remains a popular hedge during volatile times, experts caution that it’s not without risk and advise balanced portfolio strategies.
Conclusion
In conclusion, markets remain at a crossroads—navigating between optimism and caution as macro signals gather in force. This week’s data will offer a timely stress test for prevailing narratives around growth and inflation. With Gold soaring to record levels and sentiment hanging in the balance, investors are watching for confirmation or contradiction in both charts and fundamentals. As economic signals converge, the coming days may help define whether current trends evolve into sustained moves—or give way to a broader realignment.
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