Markets Juggle Soft Data, Strong Earnings, and Policy Crosswinds

Last week brought a wave of critical data releases and earnings reports that shed light on global economic momentum, inflation trends, and market sentiment. From softening labor figures in the UK to a surprise slowdown in Canadian inflation, investors were watching closely for clues on potential shifts in central bank policies. US retail sales surprised to the upside, reinforcing confidence in consumer demand, while the ECB cut rates amid growing concerns over trade tensions and economic fragility in the eurozone. In equity markets, earnings season kicked off with solid performances from major names like Johnson & Johnson, Citigroup, and Netflix, providing some optimism despite broader market declines. Commodities were largely higher, led by gains in crude oil and gold, while equities saw a modest pullback across major U.S. indices.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Tuesday, April 15

09:00 am – UK: Claimant Count Change(GBP)

UK payrolled employees fell by 78,000 in March, while vacancies declined for a 33rd straight quarter—now below pre-pandemic levels. Employment rose slightly to 75.1%, unemployment held at 4.4%, and inactivity dropped to 21.4%.

Wage growth remained strong, with regular pay up 5.9% year-on-year and real pay (adjusted for inflation) rising 2.1%. The Claimant Count increased to 1.766 million.

The GBPUSD increased by 0.29% compared to the previous day’s closing price.

15:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

Canadian inflation slowed more than expected in March, rising just 0.3% month-on-month (flat after seasonal adjustment), pushing the annual rate down to 2.3%. The surprise drop was driven by falling travel tour prices and airfares, along with a 1.8% dip in gasoline prices.

Core inflation metrics were steady, with the median at 2.9% and trim at 2.8%, while underlying momentum softened. Excluding food and energy, prices edged lower, easing the older core measure to 2.4%. With gas prices expected to drop further in April, headline inflation could fall below 2% next month.

USDCAD advanced by 0.6% day-over-day.

Wednesday, April 16

09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

UK inflation eased in March 2025, with the Consumer Prices Index, including housing costs (CPIH), rising 3.4% year-on-year, down from 3.7% in February. The standard CPI measure also slowed to 2.6% from 2.8%. Monthly increases for both measures stood at 0.3%, half the pace of March 2024. The main downward pressure came from recreation, fuel, and housing services, partly offset by higher clothing prices. Core inflation also moderated slightly, with both goods and services components showing slower annual growth.

The GBPUSD exchange saw a 0.08% uptick from the prior trading day.

15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

US retail and food services sales rose 1.4% in March 2025 from the previous month, reaching $734.9 billion, and were up 4.6% year-on-year. Sales for the first quarter of 2025 increased 4.1% compared to the same period last year. Retail trade sales also climbed 1.4% monthly and 4.6% annually, with motor vehicle and parts dealers seeing an 8.8% year-on-year rise and nonstore retailers up 4.8%.

The EURUSD strengthened by 1.06% on a daily basis.

16:45 – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.75%, citing heightened uncertainty from US trade policy and tariffs. The Bank presented two potential economic scenarios, ranging from mild weakness to recession, and noted rising short-term inflation expectations. It pledged a cautious, data-driven approach to support growth while maintaining price stability.

The USDCAD exchange rate decreased by 0.72% compared to the previous day.

Thursday, April 17

04:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

In March 2025, Australia’s unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Employment rose by 32,200, with gains in both full- and part-time jobs. The participation rate edged down to 66.9%, while hours worked remained flat. Underemployment stayed at 5.9%, and vacancy pressures appear contained.

The AUDUSD advanced 0.3% compared to the previous day’s closing price.

15:15 – Eurozone: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)

The ECB has lowered its three key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%, amid continued progress in disinflation and signs that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target. While wage growth is easing and core inflation is falling, rising global trade tensions and heightened uncertainty are weighing on the eurozone’s growth outlook. The ECB emphasized a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach going forward without committing to a fixed rate path.

The EURUSD fell by 0.3% from the previous day.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

US initial jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 215,000 in the week ending April 12, while the four-week average dipped to 220,750. Continuing claims rose by 41,000 to 1.89 million, but the insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2%. Despite weekly fluctuations, overall labor market conditions remain stable.

The USDJPY exchange rate strengthened by 0.73% compared to the previous day.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   1. Crude oil prices increased by 3.66% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   1. Brent was up 4.75% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 2.77% weekly increase
4. Silver
   1. XAGUSD increased by 0.79% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 decreased by 1.20%
2. DJIA was down by 2.54%
3. NASDAQ 100 fell 2.04%

Top Gainers

1. Elong Power Holding Limited (ELPW) 238.26%
2. Motorsport Games Inc. (MSGM) 233.33%
3. Splash Beverage Group, Inc. (SBEV) 212.31%

Top Losers

1. Click Holdings Limited (CLIK) -88.36%
2. Mullen Automotive, Inc. (MULN) -68.89%
3. XChange TEC.INC (XHG) -65.54%

Company Earnings (April 14 – 18)

Tuesday, April 15: JNJ (Johnson & Johnson)

Tuesday, April 15: C (Citigroup Inc)

Tuesday, April 15: BAC (Bank of America Corp)

Thursday, April 17: AXP (American Express Company)

Thursday, April 17: BX (Blackstone Inc)

Thursday, April 17: NFLX (Netflix Inc)

Johnson & Johnson reported Q1 2025 sales of $21.9 billion, up 2.4%, with adjusted EPS rising 2.2% to $2.77. The company highlighted strong product pipeline progress and raised full-year sales guidance while maintaining its adjusted EPS growth outlook despite tariff and acquisition-related costs.

JNJ ended the week up by 3.78%.

Citigroup reported first-quarter earnings of $1.96 per share on $21.60 billion in revenue, beating analyst forecasts. Profit rose 21% to $4.1 billion, helped by higher trading income and lower expenses. Fixed-income trading brought in $4.5 billion, while equities trading revenue jumped 23% to $1.5 billion. CEO Jane Fraser expressed confidence in the US economy despite trade tensions.

C shares rose 2.60% from the previous week.

Bank of America posted Q1 earnings of $0.90 per share on $27.51 billion in revenue, topping analyst forecasts. Profit rose 11% to $7.4 billion, driven by strong net interest income and better-than-expected trading results. BAC shares increased by 4.10% compared to the previous week.

American Express reported Q1 2025 earnings growth, with higher net income and EPS, and reaffirmed its full-year revenue guidance.

AXP shares ticked lower by 0.07% from the previous week.

Blackstone’s Q1 2025 earnings report showed a 10% revenue decline to $3.17 billion and a 27% drop in net income to $614.9 million. Despite lower profit margins and EPS at $0.80, both revenue and EPS beat analyst expectations. The company projects 15% annual revenue growth over the next three years, outperforming the 5.2% industry forecast.

BX shares increased 2.52% from the previous week.

Netflix delivered a strong first-quarter 2025 performance, beating earnings expectations with EPS of $6.61 and revenue up 13% year-over-year to $10.54 billion. While the company no longer discloses subscriber numbers, it highlighted growth in subscriptions and ad revenue, reaffirmed its full-year guidance, and launched its own ad tech platform to boost long-term ad strategy.

NFLX shares advanced 5.96% compared to the previous week.

Conclusion

Last week’s data painted a mixed but largely resilient picture of the global economy. Central banks took a cautious tone, with the ECB easing policy in response to softening inflation and trade headwinds, while the Bank of Canada opted to hold steady amid heightened uncertainty. Labor markets in the UK and Australia showed signs of cooling, while Canadian inflation dropped more than expected, hinting at future policy flexibility. In the US, strong retail sales and earnings from major firms like Netflix and Citigroup lifted sentiment, helping equities rally across the board. Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor incoming data and corporate guidance for clues on the path forward amid ongoing global risks.