Markets Navigate Mixed Signals Amid Growth and Caution

Economic data last week reflected a mix of resilience and caution. While some sectors, like US services and Australian exports, showed strength, weaker job growth, and manufacturing struggles highlighted ongoing challenges. Inflation trends remain a key focus, with the ECB easing rates and Swiss inflation staying subdued.

Market reactions were varied—gold and silver gained as equities and oil declined, while currencies fluctuated with economic data. With central banks watching inflation and growth closely, investors remain cautious about the path ahead.

Monday, March 3

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The Manufacturing PMI registered 50.3% in February, marking a second month of modest expansion after 26 months of contraction. However, new orders fell back into contraction, employment declined, and prices surged, partly due to anticipated tariffs.

Production grew slightly, but manufacturers are cautious as demand softens and supply chain pressures increase. Despite these challenges, industries like petroleum, food, chemicals, and transportation equipment continued to expand.

The EURUSD rose 1.02% compared to the previous day.

02:30 am – Australia: GDP q/q (AUD)

The Australian economy grew 0.6% in the December 2024 quarter, with GDP rising 1.3% over the year. Growth was supported by household consumption, government spending, and strong exports, particularly driven by increased demand for mineral ores, LNG, and rural goods.

The terms of trade rose 1.7%, ending a three-quarter decline, while the household saving ratio edged up to 3.8%. Private and public investment showed modest gains, with renewable energy and mining projects contributing, though residential construction remained weak due to cost pressures and labor shortages.

While most industries expanded, manufacturing and construction contracted, highlighting uneven sector performance.

The AUDUSD currency pair advanced by 1.41% compared to the previous day’s closing price.

09:30 am – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

Swiss consumer prices rose 0.6% in February 2025 compared to the previous month, bringing the consumer price index to 107.4 points. Annual inflation stood at 0.3%, according to the Federal Statistical Office.

The monthly increase was driven by higher prices for housing rentals, air transport, and international package holidays, while hotel prices, berries, and second-hand cars became cheaper.

The USDCHF exchange rate rose by 0.23% compared to the previous day.

15:15 – USA: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Private employers added 77,000 jobs in February, the smallest gain since July, as hiring slowed across several sectors. Job losses were recorded in trade and transportation, health care and education, and information, with small businesses also cutting jobs.

Policy uncertainty and weaker consumer spending likely contributed to the slowdown, with employers showing increased caution amid growing economic uncertainty.

The EURUSD exchange rate rose by 1.7% compared to the previous session.

17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

The services sector expanded for the eighth straight month in February, with the Services PMI rising to 53.5%, up from 52.8% in January. Business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries all remained in expansion territory, signaling continued growth across the sector.

Prices rose at a faster pace, and order backlogs returned to growth for the first time since mid-2024. While 14 industries reported growth, respondents expressed concerns over potential tariffs and federal spending cuts, which could weigh on future business conditions.

The USDJPY currency pair declined by 0.16% compared to the previous day’s closing value.

15:15 – Europe: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR) 

The ECB Governing Council lowered its key interest rates by 25 basis points, reducing the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, effective 12 March 2025. The decision reflects updated inflation projections, with headline inflation expected to average 2.3% in 2025 before falling to 2.0% by 2027.

While inflation is gradually easing, domestic price pressures remain due to delayed wage adjustments. Loan growth is improving slightly, but overall lending remains weak amid past rate hikes and ongoing economic uncertainty. The ECB reiterated its data-dependent approach, keeping future rate moves open based on evolving inflation and economic conditions.

The EURUSD exchange rate declined by 0.048% from the previous closing price.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

In the week ending March 1, initial jobless claims fell by 21,000 to 221,000, though the 4-week moving average edged slightly higher to 224,250. The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2% while continuing claims rose by 42,000 to 1.897 million. The data reflects ongoing stability in the labor market, though insured unemployment continues to gradually trend upward. Analysts estimate that 236,000 individuals will file for unemployment insurance benefits.

The USDJPY exchange rate fell by 0.71% relative to the previous day.

15:30 – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Canada’s job market stalled in February, adding just 1,100 jobs after a hiring spree in previous months. The unemployment rate held at 6.6%, largely due to a shrinking labor force as population growth slows. Full-time employment fell by nearly 20,000, and severe mid-month weather likely contributed to a 1.3% drop in total hours worked. A slight surprise came from wages, which rebounded to a 3.8% year-over-year rise, though still below last year’s 5% pace.

The USDCAD increased by 0.42% from the previous closing price.

15:30 – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

US job growth slowed in February, with nonfarm payrolls adding 151,000 jobs, below the recent 12-month average of 168,000. The unemployment rate remained largely unchanged at 4.1%. Job gains were seen in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance, while federal government employment declined. The number of people working part-time for economic reasons rose sharply by 460,000, and the labor force participation rate stayed at 62.4%. Average hourly earnings increased 4.0% year-over-year, with a 0.3% rise in February.

The EURUSD rose by 0.55% compared to the previous session.

1. Crude Oil
   1. Crude oil prices decreased by 4.18% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   1. Brent was down 3.72% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 1.79% weekly increase
4. Silver
   1. XAGUSD increased by 4.52% from the last week

1. S&P 500 decreased by 3.09%
2. DJIA was down by 2.33%
3. NASDAQ 100 declined by 3.33%

1. Visionary Holdings Inc. (GV) 317.24%
2. Bit Origin Ltd (BTOG) 240.66%
3. Able View Global Inc. (ABLV) 165.45%

1. Aureus Greenway Holdings Inc. (AGH) -87.22%
2. Nvni Group Limited (NVNI) -73.66%
3. PicoCELA Inc. (PCLA) -72.99%

Thursday, March 6: COST (Costco Wholesale Corporation)

Costco reported strong results for the second quarter of fiscal 2025, with net sales rising 9.1% to $62.53 billion and net income reaching $1.79 billion, or $4.02 per share. For the first 24 weeks, net sales grew 8.3% to $123.52 billion, with comparable sales up 6% and e-commerce sales jumping 17.1%.

February sales rose 8.8% to $19.81 billion, supported by solid performance in the US and strong online growth. Despite some softness in international markets, Costco’s broad-based gains across categories and channels highlight continued consumer demand and the company’s resilient business model.

COST shares experienced a weekly decrease of 8.04%.

Major economic data last week showed mixed signals. US manufacturing expanded slightly but faced weakening demand and rising costs. Australia’s economy grew steadily, while Swiss inflation remained low. The ECB cut rates as inflation eased.

Job growth slowed in the US and Canada, though US services continued expanding. Costco reported strong earnings driven by consumer demand.

Gold and silver rose, while crude oil and equities declined amid market uncertainty. Currencies saw sharp moves in response to economic data and policy shifts.