Markets Rally as Data Sends Mixed Growth Signals (June 29 – July 3, 2026, Recap)

Overview

Last week’s market review was shaped by stronger Canadian growth, mixed US economic data, softer energy prices, and solid gains across major equity indices. Canada’s economy rebounded in April, while US consumer confidence improved slightly and manufacturing remained in expansion, though both reports showed signs of caution beneath the surface. The US labor market also softened, with modest job growth, lower participation, and downward revisions to previous months.

Across markets, crude oil and Brent ended the week lower, while gold and silver advanced. US stock indices posted strong weekly gains, supported by broader risk appetite and selected corporate earnings. NIKE and General Mills shares moved higher after their latest updates, while Constellation Brands declined following earnings miss.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Tuesday, June 30

15:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

In April, Canada’s real GDP grew 0.5%, rebounding from a 0.1% contraction in March. Growth was broad-based, with 14 of 20 sectors expanding. Goods-producing industries rose 1.2%, led by mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, while services-producing industries increased 0.3%, supported by the public sector and transportation and warehousing.

Oil and gas extraction was a major driver, helped by a rebound in oil sands production and stronger pipeline activity. Manufacturing recovered, construction grew for the first time in five months, and finance, insurance, real estate, and rental activity also improved. Early estimates suggest GDP rose another 0.1% in May.

USD/CAD edged down 0.1% on the day.

17:00 – USA: CB Consumer Confidence Index (USD)

US consumer confidence inched up in June, with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rising to 91.2 from a revised 90.6 in May. The improvement was supported by better expectations for business conditions and household income, which were helped partly by easing oil prices and lower inflation concerns.

However, consumers became more cautious about the current labor market. The Present Situation Index fell as more consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” reaching the highest level since January 2021. Inflation and interest rate expectations eased slightly, while buying plans for big-ticket items improved modestly. Travel intentions weakened overall, mainly due to softer domestic travel plans, although international travel plans increased.

EUR/USD was nearly unchanged, slipping 0.006% on the day

Wednesday, July 1

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

US manufacturing expanded for the sixth consecutive month in June, although at a slightly slower pace. The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.3 from 54.0 in May, while the broader economy remained in expansion for the 20th straight month.

New orders and production continued to grow but eased from the previous month, while employment improved but remained in contraction. Prices stayed elevated but declined sharply from May, offering some relief from cost pressures. Overall, 14 manufacturing industries reported growth, with most major industries expanding, though concerns around the Iran war, tariffs, and pricing volatility continued to weigh on sentiment.

EUR/USD declined 0.39% on the day.

17:30 – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

US refineries processed more crude oil in the week ending June 26, with refinery activity rising to 96.6% of capacity. Gasoline production increased, while distillate fuel production slipped.

Crude oil imports fell, and commercial crude inventories dropped by 3.8 million barrels, leaving stockpiles about 7% below the five-year average. Gasoline inventories also declined and remained below normal levels, while distillate and propane inventories increased.

Overall fuel demand was slightly stronger than a year ago, but gasoline and distillate demand were both lower compared with the same period last year.

USD/JPY was nearly unchanged, edging up 0.034% on the day.

Thursday, July 2

15:30 – Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The US labor market showed only modest growth in June, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 57,000 and the unemployment rate holding nearly steady at 4.2%. Job gains were seen in professional and business services, social assistance, and health care, while leisure and hospitality lost jobs due to weaker seasonal hiring.

Wage growth remained moderate, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% on the month and 3.5% from a year earlier. However, labor force participation declined, long-term unemployment remained elevated, and job gains for April and May were revised down by a combined 74,000, pointing to a softer employment picture.

EUR/USD gained 0.46% on the day.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   Crude oil prices declined by 2.56% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   Brent was down 2.28% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with 2.14% weekly gains
4. Silver
   XAGUSD increased by 5.43% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 gained 2.17%
2. DJIA was up 2.09%
3. NASDAQ 100 increased by 2.27%

Top Gainers

1. Linkhome Holdings Inc. (LHAI) 169.77%
2. Universe Pharmaceuticals INC (UPC) 122.54%
3. ClearOne, Inc. (CLRO) 105.71%

Top Losers

1. PS International Group Ltd. (PSIG) -89.62%
2. Farmmi, Inc. (FAMI) -84.79%
3. StablecoinX Inc. (USDE) -70.43%

Company Earnings (June 29 – July 3)

Tuesday, June 30: NKE (NIKE, Inc.)

Tuesday, June 30: STZ (Constellation Brands, Inc.)

Wednesday, July 1: GIS (General Mills, Inc.)

NIKE reported improving momentum in its performance business, especially running, which delivered five straight quarters of double-digit growth and added about $1 billion in revenue. North America also showed signs of recovery, supported by stronger wholesale demand and better results from Foot Locker.

However, the broader turnaround remains uneven. Sportswear and Jordan streetwear continue to struggle and are expected to stay weak into fiscal 2027, which is important because they make up about half of NIKE’s revenue. The company is also restructuring around sport-focused teams to improve execution, while tariffs remain a pressure despite a large one-time benefit that boosted Q4 results.

NKE shares gained 8.20% over the past week.

Constellation Brands reported its Q1 2027 results on June 30, 2026, posting earnings per share of $3.43, below analysts’ expectations of $3.70. Revenue came in at $2.43 billion, down 3.3% from the same period last year but slightly ahead of the $2.39 billion consensus forecast. The company’s trailing EPS stands at $10.48, with a P/E ratio of 13.11. Looking ahead, earnings are projected to rise 4.69% next year, from $11.72 to $12.27 per share.

STZ shares declined 6.04% during the past week.

General Mills ended fiscal 2026 in line with expectations, with flat organic sales in Q4 but higher profit and EPS, helped by cost savings, trade timing, and the extra 53rd week. The company expects fiscal 2027 to improve, guiding for organic sales between down 1.5% and up 0.5%, and adjusted EPS of $3.00 to $3.20.

Management is focusing on stronger innovation, packaging, and brand communication, while targeting $3 billion in cost savings by fiscal 2030. However, the consumer environment remains challenging, with softer category volumes, heavier promotions, and pressure on pricing. Totino’s and Wilderness were highlighted as key weak spots that need improvement in fiscal 2027.

GIS shares gained 4.33% over the past week.

Conclusion

Overall, the week highlighted a market balancing stronger risk appetite with signs of softer economic momentum. Canadian GDP surprised positively, while US data pointed to steady but slowing activity, weaker labor conditions, and cautious consumers. Despite these concerns, equities advanced strongly, precious metals gained, and energy prices weakened. Looking ahead, traders will likely remain focused on upcoming inflation, labor market, and central bank signals to assess whether growth can remain resilient.