Markets Rally While Growth Stalls: A Week of Contrasts (June 23- 27 Recap)

Last week was packed with critical economic data that gave investors a clearer picture of global economic conditions amid persistent geopolitical tensions. Flash PMI reports from Europe, the UK, and the US revealed mixed signals across manufacturing and services, while inflation and GDP figures from Canada, Australia, and the US highlighted both progress and persistent challenges in managing price pressures.

Central banks remained in focus as markets interpreted the data for clues on future policy moves. From softening inflation in Australia to a surprise GDP contraction in the US, each release played a role in shaping expectations. Currency markets reacted accordingly, while equities showed strong gains, particularly in tech, even as some companies offered cautious forward guidance.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Monday, June 23

10:15 am – France: Flash PMI (EUR)

In June, business activity in France fell further, with both the manufacturing and services sectors in decline. The composite PMI dropped to 48.5, marking the second straight month of faster contraction and extending the downturn that began in September 2024. Manufacturing saw its first drop in output in three months, while services continued to weaken.

Demand for goods and services worsened, leading to falling new orders and backlogs and prompting firms to cut jobs slightly. Input costs rose modestly, but selling prices barely increased due to weak sales. One bright spot was business confidence, which improved to an eight-month high, though optimism remained cautious amid economic uncertainty and weak demand.

The EURUSD exchange rate rose by 0.5% compared to the closing price the previous day.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash PMI (EUR)

In June, German business activity returned to growth after a dip in May, with the composite PMI rising to 50.4—a three-month high. The recovery was driven by strong performance in manufacturing, which saw its fastest output growth in over three years. Services remained weak but showed signs of stabilizing.

New orders increased for the first time in over a year, led by manufacturing and stronger domestic and international demand. Despite the pickup, companies continued to cut jobs, especially in factories. Price pressures rose slightly, with services pushing up overall selling prices, even as input costs increased at the slowest pace since October. Business confidence dipped slightly, mainly due to caution in the services sector, though manufacturers were more optimistic.

The EURGBP exchange rate edged down by 0.17% from the previous day.

11:30 am – UK: Flash PMI (GBP)

In June, UK business activity grew for the second month in a row, with the composite PMI rising to 50.7. The services sector drove the expansion, while manufacturing continued to decline, though at a slower pace. New business increased slightly for the first time since November 2024, helped by stronger domestic demand. However, export orders fell due to concerns over possible US tariffs.

GBPUSD posted a modest gain of 0.17% compared to the prior session’s closing level.

16:45 – USA: Flash PMI (USD)

In June, U.S. business activity continued to grow, though the pace slowed slightly. The services sector expanded at a softer rate, while manufacturing picked up, posting its strongest output rise in four months. Domestic demand remained solid, helping offset falling exports, which were hurt by concerns over tariffs.

Prices rose sharply, especially for goods, as many firms passed on higher costs linked to tariffs. Despite rising costs, businesses hired more staff, with job creation reaching its highest level in over a year. Backlogs of work also increased, suggesting firms are struggling to keep up with demand. While business confidence dipped slightly, manufacturers were more optimistic than service providers, who remain cautious amid policy uncertainty.

USDJPY slipped by 0.03% compared to the previous session’s closing level

Tuesday, June 24

15:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

In May 2025, Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.7% year over year, with a monthly increase of 0.6%. Slower rent growth and falling travel and airfare prices helped ease inflation, while gas and cellphone prices declined less sharply. Excluding energy, annual inflation was 2.7%. New vehicle prices rose more quickly, driven by higher costs for electric models.

The USDCAD exchange rate decreased by 0.06% compared to the previous day.

Wednesday, June 25

04:30 am – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)

In May 2025, Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator rose 2.1% over the year, down from 2.4% in April. Food, housing, alcohol, and tobacco were the biggest contributors to the increase. However, inflation eased for items like fruit and vegetables, new dwellings, and rent.

Fuel prices fell 10% over the year, and electricity prices dropped 5.9%, helped by government rebates. On a monthly basis, electricity rose 2%, and rents increased 0.3%. Coffee, snacks, and eggs saw notable price hikes, while new dwelling prices were flat for the month. The trimmed mean—a key measure of underlying inflation—fell to 2.4%, suggesting price pressures are easing overall.

The Aussie dollar climbed 0.4% versus the greenback from a day earlier.

Thursday, June 26

15:30 – USA: Final GDP q/q (USD)

In the first quarter of 2025, the US economy shrank at an annual rate of 0.5%, a sharp slowdown from 2.4% growth in the previous quarter. The decline was mainly due to rising imports and lower government spending, while consumer spending and business investment offered some support.

Economists anticipate a reading of -0.2%.

EURUSD edged up 0.35% from the prior session’s close.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

In the week ending June 21, 236,000 people filed new unemployment claims in the US, down 10,000 from the week before. However, the number of people continuing to receive benefits rose to nearly 2 million—the highest since late 2021. The four-week average of ongoing claims also hit a new high not seen since November 2021, signaling a gradual softening in the job market despite stable headline unemployment rates.

USDJPY registered a 0.55% pullback from the last session’s closing price.

Friday, June 27

15:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

In April, Canada’s economy shrank slightly, with real GDP slipping 0.1% after a 0.2% gain in March. The decline was mainly due to a 0.6% drop in goods-producing industries, especially manufacturing. Meanwhile, the service sector grew modestly by 0.1%, helped by gains in public administration, finance, and entertainment. Half of all sectors saw growth during the month.

USDCAD increased by 0.28% from the previous day’s closing price.

15:30 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

In May 2025, US personal income fell by 0.4%, while disposable income—what people have left after taxes—dropped by 0.6%. Consumer spending also slipped by 0.1%, as people cut back on buying goods, though spending on services rose slightly.

The drop in income was mainly due to lower government benefits and a decline in farm income. The personal saving rate held at 4.5%, with savings totaling $1.01 trillion. Inflation remained modest, with prices rising 0.1% in May and 2.3% compared to a year earlier. Excluding food and energy, annual inflation was 2.7%.

EURUSD rose 0.13% from the prior session.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   1. Crude oil prices decreased by 12.07% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   1. Brent was down 12.00% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 2.81% weekly decrease
4. Silver
   1. XAGUSD decreased by 0.05% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 increased by 3.26%
2. DJIA was up by 3.98%
3. NASDAQ 100 increased by 4.00%

Top Gainers

1. Vor Biopharma Inc. (VOR) 341.12%
2. Cyngn Inc.Robin Energy Ltd. (CYN) 308.25%
3. Locafy Limited (LCF) 213.21%

Top Losers

1. Ostin Technology Group Co., Ltd. (OST) -95.45%
2. Globavend Holdings Limited (GVH) -90.83%
3. Fast Track Group (FTRK) -84.53%

Company Earnings (June 23 – 27)

Tuesday, June 24: FDX (FedEx Corporation.)

Wednesday, June 25: MU (Micron Technology, Inc.)

Thursday, June 26: NKE (NIKE, Inc.)

FedEx reported strong fourth-quarter results, with revenue of $22.2 billion and earnings of $6.07 per share—both beating Wall Street expectations. The company saw improved performance in its Express segment due to cost-cutting efforts, though its Freight division struggled with higher costs and lower fuel surcharges.

Despite the solid quarter, FedEx shares fell as its earnings outlook for the upcoming quarter came in below forecasts. The company expects earnings between $3.40 and $4.00 per share, lower than analysts’ estimate of $4.15. Looking ahead, FedEx plans to cut $1 billion in costs as part of its ongoing transformation efforts.

FDX shares rose by 1.27% compared to the previous week.

Micron reported quarterly earnings of $1.91 per share, beating expectations of $1.59 and more than tripling its earnings from a year ago. This marks a 20% earnings surprise and continues a strong trend, with the company beating estimates in each of the last four quarters.

MU logged a weekly gain of 0.94%.

Nike beat expectations in its fourth-quarter earnings report, posting revenue of $11.1 billion and earnings of 14 cents per share—both slightly ahead of analyst forecasts. However, overall sales dropped 12% from a year ago, with declines seen across all major regions, including a 21% drop in Greater China.

Despite the slowdown, Nike’s leadership remains optimistic. The company is launching a new strategy called “sport offense” to refocus on performance and drive growth. Executives expect current challenges to ease going forward and believe recent actions will start paying off. Nike also returned nearly $800 million to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks during the quarter.

NKE jumped 20.49% over the past week.

Conclusion

Overall, last week’s data painted a mixed but informative picture of the global economy. While some regions showed signs of resilience—particularly in services and employment—others, like Canada and the US, revealed slowing growth and rising economic uncertainty. Inflation trends generally pointed to easing price pressures, which may give central banks more flexibility in the months ahead.

Markets reacted accordingly, with major stock indices posting strong gains and select companies like Nike and Micron outperforming on earnings. However, volatility in commodities and soft forward guidance from key firms suggest investors remain cautious. As economic signals continue to evolve, markets will stay highly sensitive to incoming data and policy cues.