Markets Steady Amid Mixed Economic Signals and Modest Earnings Gains (November 3 – 7, 2025, Recap)

The first week of November featured a series of key economic data releases and corporate earnings that shaped market sentiment across currencies, commodities, and equities. Inflation data from Switzerland showed price stability, while US manufacturing remained weak, contrasting with renewed strength in the services sector. Central banks in Australia and the UK held rates steady, signaling cautious optimism as inflation pressures eased. Labor market data from New Zealand, Canada, and the US reflected mixed momentum, with modest job gains but signs of softening demand.

In corporate earnings, Pfizer and BP both beat profit expectations, while McDonald’s and Devon Energy delivered solid performances despite differing sector challenges. Commodity prices declined slightly, with oil and precious metals losing ground, while US stock indices ended the week lower amid ongoing global uncertainty.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Monday, November 3

09:30 am – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

In October, Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.3% from the previous month to 107.2 points (December 2020 = 100), according to the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Year-on-year inflation stood at +0.1%, reflecting nearly stable prices. The monthly decline was mainly driven by lower prices for hotels, international package holidays, and private transport hire, while clothing, footwear, and housing maintenance costs edged higher.

The USDCHF ticked up by 0.5% on the day.

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

In October, US manufacturing activity contracted for the eighth consecutive month, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI falling to 48.7% from 49.1% in September, signaling a faster pace of decline. The drop was driven by weaker production and inventories, while new orders and employment also remained in contraction territory. Despite modest improvements in some demand indicators, overall manufacturing weakness persisted, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty.

The EURUSD edged lower by 0.15% on the day following the softer manufacturing data.

Tuesday, November 4

05:30 am – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

At its November meeting, the central bank kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.60%. While inflation has eased sharply since 2022, it picked up again in the September quarter, coming in higher than expected. The Board attributed part of the rise to temporary factors but noted that underlying inflation remains above target. Citing ongoing uncertainties in both domestic and global conditions, the Board opted for a cautious stance, maintaining its focus on price stability and full employment.

The AUDUSD fell by 0.8% compared to the previous day.

Tentative – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

The report has been postponed due to the ongoing US government shutdown.

23:45 – New Zealand: Employment Change q/q (NZD)

In the September 2025 quarter, New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.3%, while the employment rate edged down to 66.6%. The underutilization rate remained steady at 12.9%, indicating persistent slack in the labor market. Wage growth continued, with all salary and wage rates up 2.1% over the year and average hourly earnings rising 3.9% to $43.60

The NZDUSD fell by 1% on the day.

Wednesday, November 5

15:15 – USA: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

In October, US private employers added 42,000 jobs, marking the first increase since July. Job gains were concentrated in education, health care, and trade-related sectors, while professional services, information, and leisure and hospitality continued to lose jobs. Wage growth remained flat, suggesting a balanced labor market.

The EURUSD ticked up by 0.07% on the day following the employment report.

17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

In October, US services sector activity returned to expansion, with the ISM Services PMI rising to 52.4% from 50% in September. Business activity and new orders strengthened, though employment continued to contract for a fifth straight month. Prices rose further, reflecting ongoing cost pressures, while backlogs and inventories remained weak, pointing to uneven momentum in the sector.

The USDJPY ticked up by 0.32% from the previous day.

17:30 – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

In the week ending October 31, 2025, US refineries processed 15.3 million barrels of crude oil per day, operating at 86% capacity. Crude oil inventories rose by 5.2 million barrels to 421.2 million, about 4% below the five-year average, while gasoline and distillate stocks declined. Imports increased to 5.9 million barrels per day, and total petroleum inventories edged up slightly. Product demand over the past four weeks averaged 20.3 million barrels per day, 1.2% lower than a year earlier.

Crude Oil prices fell by 1.25% from the previous day.

Thursday, November 6

14:00 – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)

At its November meeting, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 5–4 to keep the Bank Rate at 4%, with four members favoring a cut to 3.75%. Inflation is seen to have peaked, and underlying disinflation is progressing amid weak growth and a softening labor market. Policymakers signaled that further rate cuts will depend on continued progress toward the 2% inflation target.

The GBPUSD increased by 0.66% compared to the previous day.

Friday, November 7

15:30 – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

In October, Canada added 67,000 jobs, raising the employment rate to 60.8%, while unemployment fell to 6.9%. Job gains were strongest among men aged 25–54 and youth, with growth in retail, transport, and recreation sectors. Construction saw job losses. Wages rose 3.5% over the year to an average of $37.06 per hour.

The USDCAD edged higher by 0.27% on the day.

Tentative – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The report has been postponed due to the ongoing US government shutdown.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   Crude oil prices decreased by 1.71% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   Brent was down 1.36% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 0.04% weekly decrease
4. Silver
   XAGUSD decreased by 0.79% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 decreased by 1.41%
2. DJIA was down 0.97%
3. NASDAQ 100 decreased by 2.75%

Top Gainers

1. MMTec, Inc. (MTC) 290.91%
2. HCM III Acquisition Corp. (HCMA) 280.00%
3. Resolute Holdings Management, Inc. (RHLD) 136.33%

Top Losers

1. Gaotu Techedu Inc. (GOTU) -89.03%
2. Mint Incorporation Limited (MIMI) -81.39%
3. Energys Group Limited (ENGS) -79.96%

Company Earnings (November 3 – 7)

Tuesday, November 4: PFE (Pfizer Inc.)

Tuesday, November 4: BP (BP p.l.c.)

Wednesday, November 5: MCD (McDonald’s Corporation)

Wednesday, November 5: DVN (Devon Energy Corporation)

Pfizer reported third-quarter 2025 earnings of $0.87 per share, beating expectations of $0.79. Revenue came in slightly lower than forecast at $16.65 billion. The company’s earnings are expected to rise modestly next year, with analysts projecting growth from $2.95 to $3.03 per share.

PFE stock price fell by 0.89% compared to the previous day.

BP reported a third-quarter profit of $2.21 billion, beating expectations thanks to higher oil and gas production. The company is focusing on its core fossil fuel business while cutting back on renewables to rebuild investor confidence. BP also announced a $750 million share buyback and said it expects over $4 billion in divestment proceeds this year.

BP shares increased by 4.13% from the previous week.

McDonald’s reported higher sales in the third quarter, with same-store sales up 3.6% and US sales rising 2.4%, but earnings missed expectations. CEO Chris Kempczinski warned that lower-income customers are cutting back and expects this trend to continue into 2026. The company’s value deals and new product launches have helped attract higher-income diners, while global sales also showed solid growth.

MCD shares ticked up 0.41% from the previous week.

Devon Energy reported a third-quarter profit of $687 million, or $1.09 per share, beating analysts’ expectations. Adjusted earnings were $1.04 per share, above forecasts of $0.93. Revenue reached $4.33 billion, also topping estimates of $4.12 billion.

DVN shares rose 3.72% on the week.

Conclusion

The first week of November reflected a cautious yet steady global economic environment. Inflation appeared broadly under control, though manufacturing remained a weak spot, offset by resilience in services and selective labor market gains. Central banks maintained their policy stance, emphasizing prudence amid lingering uncertainty. In corporate results, energy firms like BP and Devon outperformed on stronger production, while consumer-focused companies such as McDonald’s faced headwinds from softer spending trends. Commodities eased and equities retreated, underscoring a market tone of consolidation as investors weighed slowing growth against stable monetary conditions.