Mixed Signals, Diverging Policies: A Global Week in Focus

Last week was marked by key economic data releases and central bank decisions across major economies, offering a broad snapshot of global economic momentum and policy direction. From U.S. retail sales and inflation data in Canada to rate decisions in Japan, Switzerland, and the UK, markets responded to signs of mixed growth, sticky inflation, and diverging monetary policies. Commodity prices moved higher, led by oil and gold, while major equity indices posted modest gains. Notably, Nike’s earnings beat expectations but failed to lift its stock, which fell sharply on the week.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Monday, March 17

14:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

Retail sales in February rose 0.2% after a sharp January drop, but the picture was mixed. E-commerce, general merchandise, supermarkets, and health stores saw strong gains, while gas and auto sales fell due to lower prices—not weaker demand. A major concern is that restaurant sales dropped despite rising prices, raising questions about consumer appetite for dining out.

The EURUSD exchange rate rose by 0.43% compared to the previous day.

Tuesday, March 18

14:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

The Consumer Price Index rose 2.6% year-over-year in February, up from 1.9% in January. Monthly CPI rose 1.1%, or 0.7% seasonally adjusted.

The USDCAD exchange rate increased by 0.04% compared to the previous day.

Wednesday, March 19

Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

The Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate at around 0.5% as the economy continued with a moderate recovery. Inflation remains elevated, with core CPI rising 3.0–3.5% year-over-year. Wage growth and reduced government subsidies are pushing prices up.

The USDJPY fell by 0.4%.

20:00 – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)

The Fed kept interest rates steady at 4.25–4.5% as the economy continued to grow solidly and the labor market remained strong. Inflation is still somewhat elevated, and uncertainty around the outlook has increased.

The EURUSD declined by 0.4% compared to the previous day’s closing price.

23:45 – New Zealand: GDP q/q (NZD)

New Zealand’s economy grew 0.7% in Q4, beating forecasts and ending its recession. Despite the rebound, the central bank is expected to proceed with planned rate cuts, as annual GDP still declined 1.1% and global risks persist. Growth was driven by services and tourism, though construction remains weak.

The NZDUSD declined by 0.09% compared to the previous day.

Thursday, March 20

02:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

Australia’s jobless rate held steady at 4.1% in February, but 52,800 jobs were lost as labor force participation fell to 66.8%. The decline was partly due to fewer older workers rejoining the workforce.

The AUDUSD fell by 0.85% compared to the previous day.

10:30 am – Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% due to low inflation and rising downside risks. Inflation fell to 0.3% in February, driven by lower electricity prices.

The USDCHF exchange rate increased by 0.47%.

14:00 – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)

The Bank of England held interest rates at 4.5% in March, with one member voting for a cut. While inflation rose slightly to 3.0% in January, wage and price pressures are easing. The MPC sees progress on disinflation but remains cautious amid global uncertainty, keeping policy restrictive to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target.

The GBPUSD decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous day.

14:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Initial jobless claims rose slightly to 223,000 in the week ending March 15, while the 4-week average edged up to 227,000. The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2%, with continuing claims rising to 1.89 million.

The EURUSD exchange rate decreased by 0.47% compared to the closing price from the previous day.

Friday, March 21

15:30 – Canada: Core Retail Sales m/m (CAD)

Retail sales in Canada fell 0.6% to $69.4 billion in January, led by declines at motor vehicle and parts dealers. Core retail sales dropped 0.2%, and sales volumes declined 1.1%. Food and beverage retailers also saw notable declines, while gasoline sales rose. Quebec and Ontario posted the largest provincial declines.

The USDCAD increased by 0.14% compared to the previous day.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   1. Crude oil prices increased by 1.89% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   1. Brent was up 1.99% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 1.31% weekly increase
4. Silver
   1. XAGUSD decreased by 2.29% from the last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 increased by 0.81%
2. DJIA was up by 1.42%
3. NASDAQ 100 increased by 0.63%

Top Gainers

1. Impact BioMedical Inc. (IBO) 726.67%
2. Regencell Bioscience Holdings Limited. (RGC) 364.58%
3. TEN Holdings, Inc. (XHLD) 201.79%

Top Losers

1. Bon Natural Life Limited (BON) -88.09%
2. LQR House Inc. (YHC) -78.84%
3. Damon Inc. (DMN) -76.98%

Company Earnings (March 17 – 21)

Thursday, March 20: NKE ( NIKE, Inc.)

Nike reported earnings of $0.54 per share for the quarter, beating estimates by a wide margin but down from $0.98 a year ago. Revenue came in at $11.27 billion, also topping expectations, though below last year’s $12.43 billion.

NKE shares dropped by 5.19% compared to the previous week.

Conclusion

This past week offered a clear window into the evolving global economic landscape, marked by mixed signals on growth, inflation, and monetary policy. Central banks largely held steady, with the notable exception of the Swiss National Bank’s rate cut, while economic data from major economies highlighted both resilience and emerging concerns. Markets responded cautiously, with equities posting modest gains and commodity prices mostly higher. Currency movements reflected diverging policy paths and macro shifts. As investors digest this flurry of data, the focus will turn to how central banks balance inflation control with supporting growth in an increasingly uncertain global environment.