The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for March 24 – 28, 2025

A packed economic calendar kicks off the final week of March, with high-impact releases set to test investor sentiment across key markets. Flash PMI readings from France, Germany, the UK, and the US will offer fresh insight into the health of global manufacturing and services sectors following a mixed February. Midweek, inflation data from Australia and the UK could sharpen rate expectations, while US GDP, jobless claims, and Core PCE readings will round out the week with clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. With market volatility lingering, each data point could be pivotal in shaping the near-term outlook.

High Impact Economic Events

Monday 10:15 am (GMT+2) – France: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Monday 10:15 am (GMT+2) – France: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Monday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Monday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Monday 11:30 am (GMT+2) – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

Monday 11:30 am (GMT+2) – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

Monday 15:45 (GMT+2) – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Monday 15:45 (GMT+2) – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

Wednesday 02:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)

Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

Thursday 14:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Final GDP q/q (USD)

Thursday 14:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

Friday 14:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Friday 14:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Monday, March 24

10:15 am – France: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

France’s manufacturing sector remained in contraction in February, but the pace of decline eased, with the PMI rising to 45.8—its highest in nine months. Output, new orders, and employment fell more slowly, and business confidence improved. However, input costs surged, and firms faced limited pricing power due to weak demand and competition. While export interest picked up slightly, a broad recovery remains uncertain amid continued pressure on key industries like construction.

Analysts project a contractionary PMI reading of 46.2.

10:15 am – France: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

France’s Services PMI fell to 45.3 in February, signaling the sharpest contraction since October 2023. Demand and employment dropped significantly while input costs rose. Despite a slight uptick in business confidence, overall sentiment remains weak.

Economists predict a small increase, bringing the number up to 46.3.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Germany’s Manufacturing PMI rose to a 25-month high of 46.5 in February, signaling a slower pace of contraction. Output and new orders declined modestly, while employment dropped sharply. Cost pressures eased further, and business optimism remained above average despite global uncertainties.

Analysts anticipate a contractionary figure of 47.1.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Germany’s Services PMI slipped to 51.1 in February, signaling slower growth amid weak demand. New business declined slightly while rising labor costs drove strong input inflation. Job creation eased, and business confidence softened from January’s high.

Economists anticipate the PMI to come in at 52.3, signaling slight growth in Germany’s service sector

11:30 am – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

UK Manufacturing PMI fell to a 14-month low of 46.9 in February, signaling a deeper contraction. Output and new orders declined faster, and job losses were the steepest since mid-2020. Rising costs and weak demand continue to weigh on the sector, despite a slight uptick in business optimism.

Analysts expect the UK manufacturing PMI to be 47.3, indicating a slight increase while still remaining in contraction.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

UK Services PMI edged up to 51.0 in February, indicating marginal growth. However, new orders fell at the fastest rate since 2022, and job losses accelerated to a four-year high. Rising wages drove strong cost inflation, while business confidence slipped to its lowest since December 2022.

Economists forecast the UK services PMI to come in at 51.2, indicating slight growth.

15:45 – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

US Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 in February, the highest since June 2022, signaling stronger growth in output and new orders. However, rising input and output prices—driven by tariff concerns—pushed cost inflation to a two-year high. Employment rose modestly, while export demand weakened and business confidence dipped.

Economists anticipate a reading of 51.9.

15:45 – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

US Services PMI dipped to 51.0 in February, marking the slowest growth since November 2023. New business and confidence weakened, employment declined for the first time in three months, and input costs rose amid tariff-related concerns.

Economists anticipate a reading of 51.2.

Wednesday, March 26

02:30 am – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)

Australia’s monthly CPI rose 2.5% in January, unchanged from December. Underlying inflation measures edged higher, with the trimmed mean up to 2.8% and the CPI excluding volatile items rising to 2.9%.

09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

UK inflation rose in January 2025, with CPIH up to 3.9% and CPI to 3.0% year-on-year. Core inflation also accelerated, driven by higher transport and food costs, while housing and household services offset some gains.

Economists expect a reading of 2.9%.

Thursday, March 27

14:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

US initial jobless claims rose to 223,000 for the week ending March 15, up 2,000 from the prior week. The 4-week average edged up to 227,000. Insured unemployment held steady at 1.2%, with continued claims rising to 1.89 million.

Economists expect unemployment claims to increase by 225,000.

Friday, March 28

09:00 am – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

UK retail sales volumes rose by 1.7% in January 2025, rebounding from a 0.6% fall in December. Food sales led the recovery, though sales were down 0.6% over the past three months.

Economists anticipate a decline of 0.3%.

14:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Canada’s real GDP rose 0.2% in December, driven by gains in both goods and services sectors. Retail trade and utilities led the growth, while manufacturing declined. GDP grew 0.5% in Q4 and 1.6% in 2024, with services driving annual gains and manufacturing acting as the biggest drag for a second straight year.

Analysts project a reading of 0.1%.

14:30 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

In January, U.S. personal income and disposable income both rose 0.9%, while consumer spending fell 0.2%. The personal saving rate increased to 4.6%. Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year.

Economists expect a marginal increase of 0.3%.

Company Earnings (March 24 – 28)

Wednesday, March 26: CTAS (Cintas Corporation)

Wednesday, March 26: PAYX (Paychex, Inc.)

Thursday, March 27: LULU (Lululemon Athletica Inc.)

Conclusion

As March winds down, markets will have no shortage of catalysts to navigate. From PMI snapshots and CPI figures to GDP updates and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the data lineup offers critical insights into global economic momentum. With inflation still sticky in some regions and growth uneven across sectors, this week’s releases could reinforce or reshape expectations around monetary policy. Traders and investors should remain nimble, as any surprises—especially on Friday’s Core PCE or UK CPI—could swing sentiment and shift the macro narrative heading into April.