Silver Shines at $33: Bulls Eye Higher Highs Amid Trade and Economic Uncertainty

Silver’s bullish momentum remains strong, closing above $33 per ounce at a year-to-date high. Technical indicators support further gains, but upcoming U.S. and UK economic data could introduce volatility. With Silver diverging from traditional drivers like the dollar and Treasury yields, geopolitical risks—especially trade tensions—may play a key role. Traders now watch whether Silver can hold key resistance or face a pullback.

Thursday 14:30 (GMT+2) – USA: PPI m/m (USD)
Thursday 14:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)

Since reaching a trough of 28.731 on December 19, Silver has maintained a well-defined upward trajectory, marked by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The initial trend reversal was confirmed by a failure swing pattern, where the trough at 28.768 remained above the prior low, followed by a breakout above 29.883. This price action effectively signaled the conclusion of the preceding downtrend and the establishment of a new bullish phase.

Further reinforcing this shift, the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has crossed above the 50-period EMA, forming a “Golden Cross” and strengthening the bullish bias. A sustained move beyond the 33.376 resistance level would likely open the door for an extended rally.

Momentum indicators remain supportive of the prevailing uptrend. The Momentum Oscillator continues to hold above the critical 100 threshold, indicating persistent upward pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, reflecting sustained buying interest.

Should the buyers maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:

33.376: The initial resistance level is established at 33.376, which mirrors the high reached on February 14.

33.814: The second price target is set at 33.814, reflecting the weekly resistance, R1, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.

34.304: The third price objective is observed at 34.304, corresponding to the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 32.752 to 31.793.

34.876: An additional upside target is projected at 34.876, mirroring the weekly resistance, R3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.

Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:

32.752: The initial support level is seen at 32.752, corresponding to the peak marked March 6.

31.793: The second support level is estimated at 31.793, representing the trough from March 11.

31.450: The third support level is identified at 31.450, reflecting the weekly support, S1, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.

30.803: An additional downside target is 30.803, mirroring the daily low formed on February 28.

Silver closed at a year-to-date high above $33 per ounce, reinforcing bullish momentum and signaling a potential retest of its October 2024 peak. The metal’s recent strength appears disconnected from traditional drivers like the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, suggesting that escalating trade tensions may be influencing price action.

With Mexico and China accounting for a significant share of global Silver production, the risk of supply disruptions could further fuel gains. However, bulls need to defend the $33 level to sustain the current uptrend. Should trade protectionism intensify, Silver may continue to benefit as a supply-sensitive commodity.

Silver’s strong bullish momentum remains intact, with technical indicators and fundamentals supporting the potential for further gains. However, with key economic data releases on the horizon, volatility may increase, influencing short-term price action.

The ability to hold above $33 per ounce will be crucial in sustaining the uptrend, while a breach of key resistance levels could pave the way for an extended rally. Meanwhile, macroeconomic factors, particularly trade tensions and supply risks, remain pivotal drivers. Traders should closely monitor upcoming economic events and geopolitical developments for potential shifts in market sentiment.