Silver Slips as Dollar Strengthens

A series of key economic events this week could impact global markets, starting Wednesday with the US CPI release, followed by Australia’s Employment Change on Thursday, and US PPI data later that day. Friday brings retail sales updates from the UK and US.
Technically, Silver has dropped over 13% since October 22 due to a US Dollar rally driven by Trump’s re-election. A bearish pattern and indicators suggest potential further declines, though a Hammer candlestick hints at a possible reversal. Key resistance levels are 31.670, 32.525, 33.074, and 34.853, while supports are 30.174, 29.578, 28.353, and 26.389.
Fundamentally, Silver faces pressure from a strong US dollar and weak responses to China’s fiscal measures. With interest shifting toward assets like Bitcoin, Silver may test $29 in the near term, though longer-term prospects remain cautiously optimistic.

Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: CPI m/m (USD)
Thursday 02:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: PPI m/m (USD)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

Trump’s re-election victory triggered a rally in the US Dollar, causing Silver prices to contract over 13% since October 22, when the metal reached a high of 34.853.
The formation of a bearish reversal pattern, known as a “failure swing” in technical analysis, ended the uptrend and opened the way for further declines. Specifically, the peak at 34.533 failed to surpass the previous peak, leading to a drop below the key support level at 33.074.
The 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are providing mixed signals. Although prices have fallen below both EMAs, the 20-period EMA still remains above the 50-period EMA. Meanwhile, the Momentum oscillator shows values below the 100 threshold, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50. Both indicators suggest continued negative momentum in the near term.
However, a closer look reveals the presence of a Hammer candlestick pattern, which may indicate a potential pause in the decline and the possibility of a reversal to the upside.

If buyers take control of the market, traders may shift their focus to the following four potential resistance levels:
31.670: The first level of resistance is projected at 31.670, which aligns with the weekly Pivot Point calculated using the standard methodology.
32.525: The second price target is seen at 32.525, corresponding to the weekly resistance, R1, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
33.074: The third price target is established at 33.074, which corresponds to the swing low from October 25.
34.853: An additional price objective is estimated at 34.853, mirroring the high reached on October 22.

If sellers maintain control of the market, traders may focus on the following four key support levels:
30.174: The initial support level is seen at 30.174, representing the recent daily low marked on November 12.
29.578: The second support level is positioned at 29.578, aligning with weekly support, S2, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
28.353: The third downside target is noted at 28.353, corresponding to the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low, 33.074 to the swing high, 34.533.
26.389: An additional downside target is determined at 26.389, reflecting a daily low reached on August 8.

Silver prices are under pressure as China’s fiscal stimulus fails to impress investors and the US dollar and yields surge. With a recent low of $30.174, Silver has dropped over 13% since its October high of $34.853, mirroring declines in gold and copper. Investors are shifting toward risk assets like Bitcoin, which hit a new high as optimism grows around US economic policies under President-elect Trump. Without further support from China, Silver may test support at $29 in the near term, though medium- to long-term fundamentals remain favorable.

In conclusion, with a series of high-impact economic releases set to influence global markets this week, Silver prices remain under technical and fundamental pressure. The recent US Dollar rally, driven by Trump’s re-election, has led to a sharp decline in Silver, compounded by mixed technical indicators pointing to continued downside. However, the emergence of a Hammer candlestick pattern hints at a possible reversal, keeping resistance levels in view. Fundamentals reflect a strong US dollar and shifting investor interest toward assets like Bitcoin, which could push Silver to test lower support levels, though medium- to long-term prospects remain cautiously optimistic.