Tariffs, Tensions, and Rate Cuts: A Global Economic Roundup

Last week saw a mix of central bank moves, key inflation and employment data, corporate earnings, and market volatility influenced by ongoing tariff developments. New Zealand cut its policy rate amid global trade tensions, while US inflation eased, and jobless claims edged higher. In markets, oil inventories rose, and product demand remained soft while metals and equities rallied. On the earnings front, major US banks like JPMorgan and Wells Fargo beat expectations, though management expressed caution about the economic outlook. Delta also topped estimates, benefiting from lower fuel costs despite tariff-related headwinds.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Wednesday, April 9

05:00 am – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)

The Monetary Policy Committee lowered the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%, citing weak domestic demand and rising global trade tensions.

Inflation remains near the 2% target midpoint, with spare capacity in the economy and subdued household spending. Recent tariff increases have heightened global uncertainty and pose downside risks to growth and inflation.

The Committee noted that with inflation stable, it has room to ease further if needed. Future decisions will depend on how global trade developments affect medium-term inflation.

The NZDUSD increased by 1.91% compared to the previous day’s closing price.

15:30 – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

Refineries processed 15.6 million barrels per day, with crude imports down to 6.2 million. Crude inventories rose by 2.6 million barrels but remained 5% below the five-year average. Gasoline and distillate stocks declined, with distillates 9% below average. Product demand averaged 19.6 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, down 1.9% from last year. Gasoline demand dipped while distillate and jet fuel use increased.

The price of crude oil increased by 7.6% compared to the previous day.

Thursday, April 10

15:30 – USA: CPI m/m (USD)

US consumer prices fell 0.1% in March, with inflation easing to 2.4% year-over-year. Gasoline prices dropped 6.3%, driving a 2.4% fall in the energy index. Food prices rose 0.4%, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose 0.1%, the smallest gain since 2021.

The EURUSD exchange rate rose by 2.26% compared to the previous day.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Initial jobless claims rose slightly to 223,000, up 4,000 from the prior week. The four-week average held steady at 223,000.

Insured unemployment fell by 43,000 to 1.85 million, with the insured jobless rate unchanged at 1.2%.

The USDJPY declined by 2.20% compared to the previous day.

Friday, April 11

09:00 – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)

UK real GDP grew by 0.5% in February, with all main sectors contributing, following flat growth in January.

The GBPUSD rose by 0.9% compared to the previous day.

15:30 – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand fell 0.4% in March, driven by declines in goods (-0.9%) and services (-0.2%).

Energy prices dropped 4.0%, with gasoline down 11.1%. Core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade) rose 0.1%.

Year-over-year, final demand prices increased 2.7%, while core PPI rose 3.4%.

The EURUSD exchange rate rose 1.43% compared to the previous day’s closing price.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   1. Crude oil prices decreased by 1.36% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   1. Brent was down 1.97% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 6.59% weekly increase
4. Silver
   1. XAGUSD increased by 9.18% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 increased by 5.92%
2. DJIA was up by 5.30%
3. NASDAQ 100 advanced 7.70%

Top Gainers

1. NanoVibronix, Inc. (NAOV) 186.86%
2. Webull Corporation (BULL) 117.67%
3. MEDIROM Healthcare Technologies Inc. (MRM) 104.79%

Top Losers

1. Femto Technologies Inc. (FMTO) -94.74%
2. SUNation Energy Inc. (SUNE) -89.58%
3. XChange TEC.INC. (XHG) -82.12%

Company Earnings (April 7 – 11)

Wednesday, April 9: DAL (Delta Air Lines, Inc.)

Friday, April 11: JPM (JPMorgan Chase & Co.)

Friday, April 11: WFC (Wells Fargo & Company)

Delta beat Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, posting EPS of $0.46 on lower fuel costs. Revenue rose 2.1% year over year to $14.04 billion. Domestic demand was weak due to tariff uncertainty, while international travel remained strong.

DAL shares increased by 9.74% compared to the previous week.

JPMorgan beat Q1 profit estimates with earnings of $4.91 per share, driven by record equities trading and strong investment banking fees. Trading revenue rose 21%, while equities trading surged 48%. CEO Jamie Dimon warned of ongoing economic turbulence, citing trade tensions and credit risks.

JPM shares experienced a weekly increase of 12.33%.

Wells Fargo beat Q1 profit estimates with adjusted earnings of $1.33 per share, which was helped by lower expenses and reduced credit loss provisions. However, net interest income (NII) missed expectations, and the bank lowered its full-year NII outlook. CEO Charlie Scharf warned that new tariffs could slow economic growth, adding to 2025 uncertainty. Shares dipped despite solid investment banking gains and ongoing regulatory progress.

WFC shares rose by 2.51% compared to the previous week.

Conclusion

Overall, last week reflected a cautious but resilient global economic backdrop. Central banks, corporations, and markets are navigating a mix of softening inflation, evolving trade policy, and shifting consumer behavior. While companies like Delta, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo delivered strong earnings, executives emphasized economic uncertainty driven by tariffs and geopolitical tensions. Despite these headwinds, equity markets posted solid gains, and safe-haven assets like gold and silver rallied—signaling a market still alert to risks but encouraged by earnings strength and easing price pressures.