The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for April 14 -18

This week features several key economic data releases across major economies, with potential implications for global markets and currency movements. From inflation figures in the UK and Canada to interest rate decisions in Europe and Canada, traders and analysts will be closely watching for signals on growth, policy direction, and labor market strength. Employment data from Australia and retail sales in the US are also on the radar, along with fresh earnings reports from major corporations, including Johnson & Johnson, Citigroup, Bank of America, Netflix, and more.

High Impact Economic Events

Tuesday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)

Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

Wednesday 16:45 (GMT+3) – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)

Thursday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

Thursday 15:15 (GMT+3) – Europe: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Tuesday, April 15

09:00 am – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)

The Claimant Count Change indicates how many individuals have started claiming unemployment benefits in a specific month.

A rise in the claimant count signifies a labor market experiencing a downturn and might negatively impact the GDP.

The Claimant Count reached 1.775 million in February, up on both the month and year.

Analysts anticipate a figure of 30,300.

15:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services over time. It covers eight major categories: food, shelter, household operations, clothing, transportation, health and personal care, recreation and education, and alcohol and tobacco.

Canada’s Consumer Price Index rose 2.6% year-over-year in February, up from 1.9% in January. Gasoline prices rose 5.1%, helping to moderate the overall acceleration. Monthly CPI rose 1.1%.

Analysts predict that the upcoming CPI will rise by 0.7%.

Wednesday, April 16

09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

The most common method for assessing inflation is the annual inflation rate, which looks at price changes over a 12-month period by comparing the current month’s prices with those from the same month the previous year. CPIH is the most comprehensive inflation measure, including the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) plus owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH) and Council Tax.

CPIH rose 3.7% in the year to February, down from 3.9% in January. CPI eased to 2.8% from 3.0% previously. Both indices rose 0.4% on the month.

Analysts predict that the Consumer Price Index will show an increase of 2.7%.

15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

The Retail Sales m/m reflects the change in US retail sales from one month to the next. This indicator is used to assess inflation, and an increase in retail sales can positively influence the value of the US dollar.

US retail and food services sales rose 0.2% in February and 3.1% year-over-year to $722.7 billion.

Analysts forecast a reading of 1.4%

16:45 – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)

The Bank of Canada uses the target for the overnight rate, also known as the policy interest rate, to control inflation. This rate influences other interest rates in the economy, affecting loans, mortgages, and savings. The Bank adjusts this rate to either stimulate economic growth by lowering it (encouraging spending) or to curb inflation by raising it (encouraging saving). The target rate is part of the Bank’s broader strategy to maintain economic stability.

In March, the Bank of Canada lowered its target for the overnight rate to 2.75%, setting the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%.

Economists expect that the rate will stay the same.

Thursday, April 17

04:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

The Australia Employment Change tracks the monthly variation in the number of officially employed individuals in the country. An increase in employment indicates a stronger labor market and can positively influence the value of the Australian dollar.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%, but employment fell by 52,800. Both full-time and part-time employment declined, and total hours worked dropped to 1.97 billion.

Economists predict that employment will increase by 40,200.

15:15 – Eurozone: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)

ECB Interest Rate Decisionis announced after the European Central Bank meetings, during which the eurozone’s monetary policy is discussed. The interest rate decisions are made depending on the inflationary outlook and economic growth.

Cutting deposit rates may have a negative effect on EUR quotes.

The ECB Governing Council lowered its three key interest rates by 25 basis points, effective March 12, 2025. The deposit facility rate was reduced to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65%, and the marginal lending facility rate to 2.90%.

Economists expect that the main refinancing rate will be lowered to 2.40%.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions.

Initial jobless claims rose by 4,000 to 223,000, while the 4-week average held steady at the same level. For the week ending March 29, the insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%, following a downward revision from 1.3%. Insured unemployment fell by 43,000 to 1.85 million, with the 4-week average dipping slightly to 1.87 million.

Analysts anticipate that jobless claims will rise to 225,000.

Company Earnings (April 14 – 18)

Tuesday, April 15: JNJ (Johnson & Johnson)

Tuesday, April 15: C (Citigroup Inc)

Tuesday, April 15: BAC (Bank of America Corp)

Thursday, April 17: AXP (American Express Company)

Thursday, April 17: BX (Blackstone Inc)

Thursday, April 17: NFLX (Netflix Inc)

Conclusion

This week’s packed economic calendar and corporate earnings lineup offer critical insights into inflation trends, labor market conditions, and central bank policy direction across key global economies. With major releases from the UK, Canada, the US, Australia, and the eurozone, along with high-profile earnings from financial giants and tech leaders, market participants should be prepared for heightened volatility and potential shifts in investor sentiment. Keeping a close eye on these indicators will be essential for navigating short-term market moves and understanding broader economic momentum.