The Week Ahead: August 12-16, 2024 – Market Movers and Earnings Reports

During the upcoming week of August 12 to August 16, 2024, several key economic events are set to take place. These events hold considerable importance for traders and investors, as they could result in significant market volatility and influence trading decisions.

Tuesday 09:05 am (GMT+0) – Germany: ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator (EUR)

Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+0) – Europe: Employment Change q/q (EUR)

Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+0) – Europe: GDP q/q (EUR)

Wednesday 14:30 (GMT+0) – EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (USD)

Wednesday 22:45 (GMT+0) – New Zealand: Electronic Card Retail Sales m/ (NZD)

Wednesday 23:50 (GMT+0) – Japan: GDP q/q (JPY)

Thursday 01:30 am (GMT+0) – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

Thursday 06:00 am (GMT+0) – UK: Manufacturing Production m/m (GBP)

Thursday 12:30 pm (GMT+0) – USA: Core Retail Sales m/m (USD)

Friday 06:00 am (GMT+0) – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

Friday 12:30 pm (GMT+0) – USA: Building Permits (USD)

Germany: The ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR)

The ZEW Economic Sentiment is an indicator that measures the economic outlook of financial experts in Germany, reflecting their six-month expectations for the country’s economy. It is derived from a monthly survey carried out by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW).

Analysts seem pessimistic about the upcoming release of the ZEW indicator, with an expected forecast of 35.4.

Europe: Employment Change q/q (EUR)

In the first quarter of 2024, employed persons in the euro area increased by 0.3%, while the EU saw a 0.2% rise compared to the previous quarter. These trends are similar to those observed in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Analysts see a slight reduction of employed persons in the second quarter with a forecast of 0.2%

Europe: GDP q/q (EUR)

In its most recent release, the seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.3% in both the euro area and the EU in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter.

Economists expect that the increase would remain unchanged for the second quarter.

EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (USD)

In the week ending August 2, there was a 3.7 million-barrel decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories, and gasoline production increased to 10.0 million barrels per day. The average crude oil imports were 6.2 million barrels per day, showing a decrease of 729,000 barrels compared to the previous week. The total commercial petroleum inventories saw an increase of 1.2 million barrels.

Analysts forecast a further decrease of 5.514 M in this week’s upcoming report on Oil inventories.

New Zealand’s Electronic Card Retail Sales m/m (NZD)

The seasonally adjusted monthly indicator measures the monthly percentage change in the value of retail sales transactions processed through electronic cards, indicating consumer spending trends in New Zealand.

July’s reading of -0.6% was below analysts’ 0.8% expectation. This week is projected to see a further 1% decrease in electronic card transactions compared to the previous month.

Japan: GDP q/q (JPY)

Japan’s GDP q/q ratio tracks the quarterly change in the value of goods and services produced, encompassing consumption, government spending, business costs, and net exports. Ranked as the third largest economy globally, Japan has seen a GDP decline since the late 1990s due to sluggish growth and deflation. Higher GDP figures boost the JPY, while lower figures weaken it.

The previous quarter saw a reduction of -0.5%, meeting analysts’ expectations, whereas this week’s projection stands at 0.0%.

Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

In June 2024, Australia’s Labour Force Survey indicated that the unemployment rate had increased to 4.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Employment saw a significant increase of 50,200 positions, surpassing analysts’ expectations of 20,000. The participation rate remained steady at 66.8%.

In this week’s report, analysts and investors anticipate an increase of 50.5 thousand new jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%.

Manufacturing Production m/m (GBP)

In May 2024, manufacturing output increased by 0.4%, meeting analysts expectations. This was driven by a 1.7% rise in food, beverages, and tobacco production, particularly alcohol. This growth was partially offset by a 0.7% decline in transport equipment, primarily due to a 1.8% drop in motor vehicle production.

Economists see a modest increase of 0.1% in this week’s report.

USA: Core Retail Sales m/m

In June 2024, US retail sales, excluding autos, rose 0.4%, the highest in three months, showing consumer confidence. Total sales stayed flat due to a 2% drop in auto sales from a cyberattack. Non-store retailers and health stores led gains, with control group sales up 0.9%, indicating economic resilience despite high interest rates.

Economists expect that the increase will remain unchanged for the second quarter near 0.1%

UK: GDP q/q (GBP)

In May 2024, it is estimated that the monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.4%, beating analysts’ expectations, following a period of no growth in April 2024.

This week’s estimates stand at 0.1%.

UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

Sales volumes dropped by 1.2% in June 2024 after a 2.9% increase in May. Most sectors saw declines, with department stores and clothing retailers returning to their early 2024 levels. Quarterly sales volumes fell by 0.1% in Q2 2024 compared to Q1 2024 and by 0.2% compared to Q2 2023.

Economists expect the decrease in retail sales will continue with an estimated 1.7%.

USA: Building Permits (USD)

Building permits, which indicate future construction activity, increased by 3.4% to an annual rate of 1.45 million, mainly due to a rise in applications for multifamily projects. Conversely, authorizations for single-family homes dropped by 2.3%, reaching their slowest pace in over a year.

Economists expect building permits to reach 1.430 M, slightly below the previous month.

Company Earnings (August 12 – 16)

Wednesday, August 14, CSCO (Cisco Systems Inc.)

Thursday, August 15: BABA (Alibaba Group Holding Limited)

Thursday, August 15: WMT (Walmart Inc.)