The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for June 16 – 20, 2025

This week features a packed calendar of high-impact economic events and central bank decisions that could move global markets. From interest rate announcements in Japan, Switzerland, and the UK to major data releases on US retail sales, inflation, and employment trends in Australia and New Zealand, investors and traders will be closely watching for signs of economic momentum or policy shifts. The Federal Reserve and Bank of England are expected to hold rates steady, while attention will also turn to earnings reports from Progressive, Accenture, and Kroger later in the week.

High Impact Economic Events

Tuesday Tentative – Japan: Policy Rate (JPY)

Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Wednesday 21:00 (GMT+3) – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)

Thursday 01:45 am (GMT+3) – New Zealand: GDP q/q (NZD)

Thursday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

Thursday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)

Thursday 14:00 (GMT+3) – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)

Friday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

Tuesday, June 17

Tentative – Japan: Policy Rate (JPY)

The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy aims to achieve price stability, which is crucial for supporting economic activity. Price stability helps individuals and firms make informed decisions about consumption and investment, ensuring efficient resource allocation. To this end, the Bank set a 2% inflation target (CPI) in 2013 and remains committed to reaching this goal as soon as possible.

The Bank of Japan left its benchmark short-term interest rate steady at 0.5% during its May policy meeting, a level that marks the highest since 2008 and aligns with consensus forecasts.

Analysts anticipate that the Bank of Japan will maintain the current policy interest rate without any changes.

15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

The Retail Sales m/m reflects the change in US retail sales from one month to the next. This indicator is used to assess inflation, and an increase in retail sales can positively influence the value of the US dollar.

US retail sales rose 0.1% in April 2025, while core retail trade sales slipped 0.1% from March. Year-over-year, total sales were up 5.2%, and core sales gained 4.7%. March’s increase was revised to 1.7%. Motor vehicle and food service sales posted strong annual gains.

Analysts expect that the upcoming release will show a decrease of 0.6%.

Wednesday, June 18

09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

The most common method for assessing inflation is the annual inflation rate, which looks at price changes over a 12-month period by comparing the current month’s prices with those from the same month the previous year. CPIH is the most comprehensive inflation measure, including the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) plus owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH) and Council Tax.

UK inflation accelerated in April 2025, with the CPIH rising 4.1% year-over-year, up from 3.4% in March. On the month, CPIH increased 1.2%. The CPI rose 3.5% annually, also up from 2.6% in March, and matched CPIH’s 1.2% monthly gain. Owner occupiers’ housing costs, a key CPIH component, rose 6.9% annually but eased from 7.2% in March.

Economists project an increase of 3.3%.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions.

US jobless claims held steady at 248,000 for the week ending June 7, with the prior week’s figure revised up by 1,000. The 4-week moving average rose to 240,250, the highest since August 2023. Insured unemployment climbed to 1.96 million, the highest since November 2021, pushing the insured jobless rate up to 1.3%. The 4-week average of continuing claims also hit its highest level since late 2021.

21:00 – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)

The Federal Reserve adjusts monetary policy by changing its target range for the federal funds rate, which impacts overnight borrowing rates for banks. Lowering the target, or “easing,” reduces interest rates to stimulate the economy during slow growth, low inflation, or high unemployment. Raising the target, or “tightening,” increases rates to cool an overheating economy, high inflation, or low unemployment. These rate changes affect broader financial conditions, influencing household and business spending and ultimately impacting economic activity, employment, unemployment, and inflation.

The Federal Reserve held its policy stance steady on May 8, 2025, keeping the interest rate on reserve balances at 4.4% and maintaining the federal funds target range at 4.25%–4.5%.

Economists expect that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate without any changes.

Thursday, June 19

01:45 am – New Zealand: GDP q/q (NZD)

New Zealand’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the official measure of economic growth. It is calculated using two methods: the production approach, which measures the total value of goods and services produced minus production costs, and the expenditure approach, which measures final purchases of goods and services, adding exports and subtracting imports. An increase in GDP may have a positive impact on the quotes of the New Zealand dollar (NZD).

New Zealand’s economy rebounded 0.7% in Q4 2024, beating forecasts after two straight quarters of contraction. Growth was driven by agriculture, real estate, and manufacturing, while construction and business services remained weak. GDP fell 1.1% year-over-year.

Analysts anticipate a growth rate of 0.7%.

04:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

The Australia Employment Change tracks the monthly variation in the number of officially employed individuals in the country. An increase in employment indicates a stronger labor market and can positively influence the value of the Australian dollar.

Australian employment surged by 89,000 in April 2025, far exceeding expectations and lifting total jobs to a record 14.64 million. Full-time and part-time employment both hit all-time highs, driving the employment-to-population ratio up to 64.4%. Annual job growth of 2.7% outpaced population growth, underscoring strong labor market momentum.

Economists anticipate a reading of 19,900.

10:30 am – Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the changes in the prices of goods and services that reflect the spending habits of private households in Switzerland.

It shows how much consumers need to adjust their spending to maintain the same level of consumption despite price fluctuations.

The Swiss National Bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% on March 20, 2025, citing low inflation and rising downside risks. Inflation fell to 0.3% in February, and the SNB forecasts it will remain within the price stability range through 2027. The central Bank signaled continued flexibility in FX markets and expects Swiss GDP growth of 1–1.5% in 2025.

Economists project that the SNB will keep the policy rate unchanged.

14:00 – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to achieve a 2% inflation target while supporting sustainable economic growth and employment. It adopts a forward-looking, medium-term strategy to ensure inflation remains stable and sustainable.

The Bank of England cut its Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in May 2025, citing continued progress in disinflation. The decision was split 5–4, reflecting differing views on the pace of easing. Inflation fell to 2.6% in March, but upside risks remain. The MPC signaled a cautious, data-dependent approach going forward.

Analysts expect that the official bank rate will remain unchanged.

Friday, June 20

09:00 am – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

Retail Sales m/mshow the changes in the value of retail goods sold in the UK for the given month compared to the previous month. The calculation uses season-adjusted data from British retailers.

The indicator is used in forecasting, budgeting, and developing UK financial and economic policy. Retail sales growth can positively affect British pound quotes.

UK retail sales volumes rose 1.2% in April 2025, up from a revised 0.1% gain in March. Food store sales saw strong growth, aided by good weather. Over the three months to April, sales volumes increased by 1.8% compared to the previous three months.

Economists anticipate a 0.5% decrease.

Company Earnings (June 16 – 20)

Wednesday, June 18: PGR (The Progressive Corporation)

Friday, June 20: ACN (Accenture plc)

Friday, June 20: KR (The Kroger Co.)

Conclusion

With multiple central bank rate decisions and key data releases across major economies, this week promises heightened market sensitivity and potential volatility. Traders and investors will closely monitor signals from the Fed, SNB, and BoE for policy direction, while economic indicators like US retail sales, UK inflation, and employment data from Australia and New Zealand will offer fresh insights into global growth and inflation trends. As always, surprises in data or tone could shift expectations—and markets—quickly.