The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for August 19-23, 2024 

The week of August 19-23 is packed with high-impact economic events that traders and investors should notice. These events could shake the market and significantly influence trading decisions and strategies.

High Impact Economic Events

Tuesday 12:30 pm (GMT+0) – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

Wednesday 14:30 (GMT+0) – USA: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (USD)

Thursday 07:15 am (GMT+0) France: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Thursday 07:15 am (GMT+0) France: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Thursday 07:30 am (GMT+0) Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Thursday 07:30 am (GMT+0) Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Thursday 08:30 am (GMT+0) UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

Thursday 08:30 am (GMT+0) UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

Thursday 12:30 pm (GMT+0) USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Thursday 13:45 (GMT+0) USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Thursday 13:45 (GMT+0) USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

Thursday 140:0 (GMT+0) – USA: Existing Home Sales (USD)

Thursday 22:45 (GMT+0) – New Zealand: Retail Sales q/q (NZD)

Friday 12:30 pm (GMT+0) – Canada: Retail Sales m/m (CAD)

Friday 14:00 (GMT+0) – USA: New Home Sales (USD)

12:30 pm – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) monitors fluctuations in prices in Canada by following the expenses of a fixed basket of goods and services in eight categories on a monthly basis. It is a crucial gauge of inflation, indicating shifts in the cost of living for Canadians.

In June, the CPI fell 0.1%, missing economists’ expectations of a 0.1% increase following a 0.6% increase in May.

In addition, they predict a 1.7% increase in the current month compared to the same month of the preceding year.

14:30 – USA: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (USD)

In the week ending August 9, 2024, US refineries increased Crude Oil inputs slightly, operating at 91.5% capacity. Crude Oil imports rose, but gasoline and distillate production decreased. Crude Oil inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels but remained 5% below the five-year average. Gasoline and distillate inventories fell, while propane/propylene stocks rose, 14% above the five-year average. Total commercial petroleum inventories dropped by 3.1 million barrels.

Analysts forecast a further decrease of 1.743 M in this week’s upcoming report on Oil inventories.

07:15 am – France: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained in negative territory for the 18th consecutive month, dropping to 44.0 from 45.4 in June. The primary reason for the decline was a significant decrease in orders for manufactured products, with the subindex for new orders having the most significant impact on the calculation of the PMI.

Economists expect a modest increase, with a 44.9 reading for the upcoming survey.

In July, the seasonally adjusted French Services PMI, which monitors month-to-month changes in business activity levels, achieved a value of 50.1, putting an end to a period of contraction between May and June.

Analysts forecast a slight decline of the Services PMI to 48.8, which is lower than the previous month’s reading of 50.1

In July, the Manufacturing PMI in Germany decreased to 43.2 from 43.5 in June, marking a 25-month period of readings below 50, the longest since 1996. The drop indicated a substantial deterioration in business conditions, primarily attributed to a sharp and swift decline in output.

Following last month’s 43.2 decrease, surpassing analysts’ expectations, economists anticipate a slight rise to 43.8 this week.

In July, the German PMI survey indicated a slowdown in business activity growth within the German service sector for the second consecutive month. This deceleration led to the sector experiencing its first drop in employment this year.

Analysts predict Germany’s upcoming Services PMI will stay unchanged during this week’s reporting.

In the second half of 2024, the UK manufacturing industry got off to a strong start in July. The S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI® rose to 52.1, reaching a two-year high and showing an increase from 50.9 in June. This marks the longest period of growth for the PMI since mid-2022.

Economists anticipate a Manufacturing PMI reading of 50.3 for the upcoming week, down from 52.1 in the previous month.

The UK Services PMI showed a modest improvement from June’s 52.1 to 52.5 in July.

Analysts are expecting similar results from this week’s survey of purchasing managers’ expectations.

According to the Labor Department, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to 227,000 last week, a decrease of 7,000, signaling the job market’s resilience despite high interest rates.

This week’s expected number of unemployment claims is slightly higher at 233,000.

At the start of the third quarter, US manufacturing conditions declined as new orders dropped for the first time in three months. While output and employment grew, the increases were minimal. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI® fell to 49.6 in July from 51.6 in June, falling below the neutral 50.0 mark and indicating a slight downturn in sector performance.

Economists predict that the business conditions index, based on a survey of approximately 800 purchasing managers, will likely remain unchanged at around 49.8

In July, the US service sector continued to expand from the previous six months, driven by an increase in new orders. This growth led to increased hiring by companies and a positive outlook for the future. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index was 52.5, indicating a robust 18-month period of growth in service sector activity.

Analysts see a continuation of the expansion in the services sector with a reading of 54.0.

The Existing Home Sales report reveals the number of residential buildings sold in the previous month. In June, the number of residential buildings sold decreased by 5.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.89 million, showing a 5.4% decline from the previous year. The median sales price rose by 4.1% to a new peak of $426,900, marking twelve consecutive months of increasing year-over-year prices. The inventory of unsold homes increased by 3.1% to 1.32 million, representing a 4.1-month supply at the current sales pace.

According to analysts’ forecasts, the upcoming release of Existing Home Sales is expected to show an annual rate of 3.91 million.

The retail sales volume increased by 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2024, following eight consecutive declines in the preceding quarters.

Analysts anticipate a second consecutive positive quarter with a forecast of 0.9.

12:30 pm – Canada: Retail Sales m/m

In May, retail sales declined by 0.8% to $66.1 billion, with decreases observed in eight out of nine subsectors, notably in food and beverage stores. Core retail sales, excluding gasoline stations and motor vehicle dealers, fell by 1.4%. The volume of retail sales also decreased by 0.7%.

Economists project a 0.3% decline in the volume of goods sold by retailers to households for the specified month compared to the previous month.

The estimated sales of new single-family houses in June 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 617,000. This is a 0.6 percent decrease from the revised May rate of 621,000 and a 7.4 percent decrease from the June 2023 estimate of 666,000.

The median sales price of new houses was $417,300, and the average price was $487,200. At the end of June, 476,000 new houses were for sale, representing a 9.3-month supply at the current sales rate.

This month’s projection is set at 0.681 million to end a three-month consecutive streak of negative New Home Sales.

Company Earnings (August 19 – 23)

Thursday, August 22: BAIDU (Baidu Inc.)