The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for August 26-30, 2024

Several high-impact economic events across key global markets mark the week of August 26-30. These events include key data releases from Germany, the United States, Japan, Australia, Canada, France, and China, covering indicators like GDP, consumer confidence, crude oil inventories, and manufacturing activity. These reports are expected to provide valuable insights into the economic health and future outlook of these regions, influencing market sentiment and financial decisions.

Monday 11:30 am (GMT+3) – Germany: Ifo Business Climate (EUR)

Monday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (USD)

Tuesday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – Germany: GDP q/q (EUR)

Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: CB Consumer Confidence Index (USD)

Wednesday 17:30 (GMT+3) – USA: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (USD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: GDP q/q (USD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 02:50 am (GMT+3) – Japan: Retail Sales m/m (JPY)

Firday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: Retail Sales m/m (AUD)

Friday 09:45 am (GMT+3) – France: GDP q/q (EUR)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Friday 16:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Saturday 04:00 am (GMT+3): China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

11:30 am – Germany: Ifo Business Climate (EUR)
The ifo Business Climate is based on approximately 9,000 monthly responses from businesses in manufacturing, the service sector, trade, and construction. Companies reported lower satisfaction with the current situation and increased skepticism about the future. The decline was most pronounced in manufacturing, where order backlogs and capacity utilization dropped, while the service, trade, and construction sectors also showed deteriorating outlooks. The overall economic environment in Germany remains challenging, with growing uncertainty across multiple sectors.

In July 2024, the ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell to 87.0 points, down from 88.6 in June, reflecting a significant decline in business sentiment.

Analysts predict a pessimistic assessment of 85.4 for the upcoming survey.
15:30 – USA: Durable Goods Orders m/m (USD)
In June, new orders for manufactured durable goods (i.e., items that do not wear out quickly and typically have a lifespan exceeding three years) in the US fell by 6.6%, ending a four-month streak of increases. The decline was primarily driven by a significant drop in transportation equipment orders, which fell by 20.5%. Excluding transportation, new orders actually rose by 0.5%, but excluding defense, they decreased by 7.0%.

Analysts predict a further 2.0% decrease overall but a 0.2% increase when excluding transportation items (i.e., core durables).

17:00- USA: CB Consumer Confidence Index (USD)
In July 2024, the Consumer Confidence Index, which provides insights into current business conditions and future expectations, rose slightly to 100.3, but concerns about the present economic situation persisted. Consumers are cautious about elevated prices, interest rates, and potential recession risks.

Economists anticipate that confidence will rise to 104.2 in August.

17:30 – USA: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (USD)
In the week ending August 16, 2024, US crude oil refinery inputs rose to 16.7 million barrels per day. Crude oil imports increased, but commercial crude inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels, now 5% below the five-year average.
Analysts forecast a 2.0 million barrel decrease in crude oil inventories, which could increase the price of crude oil.

15:30 – USA: GDP q/q (USD)
In Q2 2024, US real GDP grew by 2.8%, up from 1.4% in Q1, driven by higher consumer spending and investments. Personal income growth slowed, and the saving rate dipped to 3.5%. The GDP price index increased by 2.3%, indicating moderated inflation.

Economists forecast a 2.8% reading.
15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
In the week ending August 10, initial claims for US unemployment benefits decreased by 7,000 to 227,000, following a revised increase the previous week.

Analysts anticipate that 234,000 individuals applied for unemployment insurance for the first time last week.

02:50 am – Japan: Retail Sales m/m (JPY)
Japanese retail sales rose 0.6% compared to the previous month and 3.7% in June from a year earlier.

Economists expect a monthly minor increase of 0.1%.
04:30 am – Australia: Retail Sales m/m (AUD)
In June 2024, Australia’s retail sales rose by 0.5% month-on-month and 2.9% compared to June 2023.

Analysts anticipate a slight increase of 0.1% compared to the previous month.
15:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)
Canada’s GDP grew by 0.2% in the previous quarter, led by a 0.4% rise in goods-producing industries, especially manufacturing. Retail and wholesale trade sectors declined, slightly offsetting gains.

Advance estimates suggest a 0.1% GDP increase.
16:30 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)
In June, US personal income and disposable income both increased by 0.2%, while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose by 0.3%. The PCE price index, a key inflation measure, increased slightly by 0.1%.

Economists expect a further increase of 0.1% in the upcoming release.

04:00 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)
China’s manufacturing PMI remained at 49.4 in June 2024, indicating continued contraction in the sector. While large enterprises saw a slight decline in PMI, medium and small enterprises experienced modest increases. Key indices like new orders, exports, and employment stayed below the neutral 50-mark, signaling ongoing challenges in the manufacturing industry.

Economists anticipate a further decrease to 48.8 in the upcoming release.

Company Earnings (August 26 – 30)
Wednesday, August 28: HPQ (HP Inc.)
Wednesday, August 28: NVDA (NVIDIA Corp.)
Thursday, August 29: NVDA (Gap Inc.)