The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for December 1 – 5, 2025

This week brings several key U.S. data releases that could influence market sentiment and the U.S. dollar. Traders will focus on updates covering manufacturing, services, jobs, inflation, and consumer confidence for signs of economic momentum and the Fed’s policy outlook.

Highlights include Monday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, Wednesday’s ADP Employment and ISM Services PMI, Thursday’s Unemployment Claims, and Friday’s Core PCE Price Index, Consumer Sentiment, and Inflation Expectations. Earnings from Salesforce (CRM), Snowflake (SNOW), and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) may also add market volatility.

High Impact Economic Events

Monday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Wednesday 15:15 (GMT+2) – USA: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Wednesday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Friday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Friday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD)

Friday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (USD)

Monday, November 25

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index that indicates sector expansion if above 50% and contraction if below. The report tracks changes in key indicators like New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the manufacturing sector’s health and the broader economy.

US manufacturing contracted for the eighth straight month in October, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI slipping to 48.7 percent from 49.1 percent in September. New orders and production declined, prices rose more slowly, and employment stayed weak as firms avoided new hiring. Only Food, Beverage, and Tobacco Products and Transportation Equipment showed growth, while most industries continued to shrink. Overall, about 58 percent of manufacturing GDP contracted, signaling continued weakness in the sector.

Analysts expect the next Manufacturing PMI report to show a 0.3 percent increase.

Wednesday, December 2

15:15 – USA: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The ADP Nonfarm Employment Changetracks the monthly change in employment across 19 manufacturing sectors in the US, excluding the agriculture and government sectors, based on the aggregated and anonymized payroll data of more than 25 million US employees.

Employment growth may have a positive effect on the US dollar quotes.

In October, private employers added 42,000 jobs, marking a rebound after two months of weak hiring. Most gains came from education, health care, and trade, transportation, and utilities, while professional business services, information, and leisure and hospitality continued to lose jobs for the third straight month.

Economists expect private employers to add 19K jobs.

17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

The ISM Services PMI measures activity in the US service sector for the reporting month. It is derived from a survey of supply executives in the services sector. Readings above 50 can have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

In October, U.S. services activity returned to growth as the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4 percent from 50 percent in September. Business activity and new orders strengthened, but employment fell for the fifth straight month. Prices rose at the fastest pace in nearly three years, and although 11 industries expanded, shrinking backlogs signaled lingering uncertainty in the sector.

Economists expect a reading of 52.0 for the next report.

Thursday, December 4

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions.

Jobless claims fell to 216,000 in the week ending November 22, down 6,000 from the previous week. The four-week average slipped to 223,750, while the insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.3 percent, indicating a stable labor market.

Economists expect 220,000 jobless claims.

Friday, December 5

15:30 – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Change in the number of employed individuals in the previous month. In general, when the actual figure is greater than the forecast, it is positive for the currency.

Employment in Canada rose by 67,000 jobs in October, pushing the jobless rate down to 6.9%. Most new jobs were for men aged 25–54 and young workers aged 15–24. Gains were strongest in retail, transportation, and recreation, while construction saw losses. Ontario led job growth, and average hourly wages rose 3.5% from a year earlier to $37.06.

Economists are expecting a loss of about 7,600 jobs in the upcoming labor report.

17:00- USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measure the value of goods and services consumed by individuals and households. It’s a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large portion of economic activity in the US. The PCE is often used to track inflation trends, as it includes data on prices paid by consumers. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index as its preferred measure of inflation to guide monetary policy decisions, aiming to maintain price stability in the economy.

In August, U.S. personal income rose 0.4 percent, and consumer spending increased 0.6 percent, driven by higher wages and government transfer payments, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Spending grew on both services and goods, while the personal saving rate edged down to 4.6 percent. The PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3 percent in August and 2.7 percent from a year earlier. The Core PCE Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2 percent for the month and 2.9 percent year over year, pointing to moderate but persistent inflation pressures.

Analysts expect an increase of 0.2%.

17:00 – USA: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD)

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a monthly measure of how consumers perceive current and future economic conditions. Based on a survey of approximately 500 households, it provides insight into consumer confidence and spending behavior. The index is released in two stages: a preliminary estimate and a final revised figure, with the preliminary version typically having a stronger market impact. A higher-than-expected reading generally supports a stronger US dollar, while a weaker reading may signal economic concerns and pressure the dollar lower.

Consumer sentiment slipped slightly in November, falling 2.6 points from October, though the change was within the margin of error. Confidence improved somewhat after the federal shutdown ended, but many consumers remain discouraged by high prices and weaker incomes. Views of personal finances and big-ticket purchases fell sharply, while expectations for the future improved slightly.

Analysts expect a reading of 52.0 for the upcoming report.

17:00 – USA: Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (USD)

University of Michigan (UoM) Inflation Expectations represent the anticipated percentage change in consumer prices over the coming 12 months, as reported by surveyed consumers. The data is released in two stages—Preliminary and Final (Revised)—with the Preliminary report typically having greater market influence due to its earlier release.

A result above market expectations may support a stronger U.S. dollar (bullish), while a lower-than-expected figure can signal weakness in the dollar (bearish).

Inflation expectations eased in November, with the one-year outlook slipping to 4.5 percent and long-term expectations down to 3.4 percent. Although both have declined for three straight months, they remain higher than at the start of the year. Consumers still say high prices are straining their finances despite signs of easing inflation.

Company Earnings (December 1 – 5)

Wednesday, December 3: CRM (Salesforce, Inc.)

Wednesday, December 3: SNOW (Snowflake Inc.)

Thursday, December 4: HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company)

Conclusion

This week’s data lineup will provide valuable clues about the direction of the U.S. economy heading into year-end. Markets will closely watch for signs of resilience in manufacturing and services, the strength of job creation, and any moderation in inflation pressures. Together, these reports will help shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next moves and could drive volatility across the U.S. dollar, equities, and bond markets.