The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for December 16-20, 2024 

This week is packed with high-impact economic events that are expected to shape market sentiment across major economies. From the release of flash PMIs in Europe, the UK, and the US on Monday to inflation and interest rate decisions later in the week, investors and analysts will closely monitor these data points for insights into economic health and policy direction. Additionally, significant corporate earnings reports, including those from General Mills, Nike, and FedEx, will provide a deeper look into sector performance as the year-end approaches. These events collectively offer a comprehensive snapshot of global economic and market trends, setting the stage for critical decision-making.

Monday 10:15 am (GMT+2) – France: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
Monday 10:15 am (GMT+2) – France: Flash Services PMI (EUR)
Monday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
Monday 10:30am (GMT+2) – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)
Monday 11:30 am (GMT+2) – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)
Monday 11:30am (GMT+2) – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)
Monday 16:45 (GMT+2) – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Monday 16:45 (GMT+2) – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)
Tuesday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)
Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)
Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)
Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)
Wednesday 21:00 (GMT+2) – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)
Wednesday 23:45 (GMT+2) – New Zealand: GDP q/q (NZD)
Thursday Tentative (GMT+2) – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)
Thursday 14:00 (GMT+2) – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: Retail Sales m/m (CAD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

10:15 am – France: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that reflects the performance of the manufacturing sector. It is based on surveys of purchasing managers across key areas such as new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. The Manufacturing PMI is widely used to gauge the overall health of the manufacturing economy and to anticipate economic trends, influencing business decisions and policymaking.
France’s Manufacturing PMI fell to 43.1 in November 2024, marking 22 months of contraction. Weak demand, particularly from the US and Germany, drove steep declines in orders, output, and employment. Firms cut inventories and slashed prices despite rising input costs. Business confidence remained low, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty.

Analysts anticipate that the contraction will continue this week with a projected reading of 43.2.

10:15 am – France: Flash Service PMI (EUR)
The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector. It is based on surveys of business executives in industries such as finance, healthcare, retail, and other service-oriented areas. The index reflects changes in key variables such as new business, employment, prices, and output. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. It is a critical gauge for assessing economic health and guiding monetary policy decisions.
France’s service sector contracted for the third month in November, with the PMI falling to 46.9, the lowest since January. Weak demand, budget constraints, and uncertainty drove sharp declines in output and new business, while confidence hit its lowest since May 2020. Employment rose slightly despite falling workloads, and input costs increased due to wage pressures.
Analysts predict that the upcoming release will show a contraction, with a reading of 46.9.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
Germany’s manufacturing PMI stayed at 43.0 in November, signaling ongoing contraction. Output, orders, and employment fell sharply, while prices dropped amid weak demand and strong competition. Business confidence improved slightly but remained low.
Analysts expect a reading of 43.1.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)
Germany’s Services PMI fell to 49.3 in November, signaling a modest contraction after eight months of growth. Weak demand, political uncertainty, and reduced business from manufacturers and the public sector drove declines in activity, new work, and employment. Rising wage costs pushed input price inflation to a four-month high, leading to a sharper increase in output prices. Business confidence weakened, reflecting concerns over economic and political uncertainty.
Analysts forecast a reading of 49.5.
11:30 am – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)
The UK Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.0 in November, marking a deeper contraction as output and new orders fell sharply. Small firms were hardest hit, while employment, purchasing, and inventories declined amid rising costs and weak demand. Despite challenges, over half of manufacturers remained optimistic about future production.
Economists project ongoing contraction, with the upcoming release anticipated to show a reading of 48.4.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)
The UK Services PMI fell to 50.8 in November, showing minimal growth and the weakest expansion over a year. Business optimism hit its lowest since 2022, with rising costs and economic uncertainty driving job cuts and higher prices. New orders grew modestly amid cautious investment and weak demand abroad.
Analysts project an expansion in the upcoming release, with expectations pointing to a reading of 50.9.
16:45 – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)
The US Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 in November, nearing stabilization as new orders declined more slowly and optimism hit a two-year high. Job creation resumed, input cost inflation eased, but production fell for the fourth month amid weak exports and lingering uncertainty.
Analysts anticipate a contractionary reading of 49.4.

16:45 – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)
The S&P Global Flash US PMI rose to 55.3 in November, a 31-month high, driven by strong service sector growth. Business optimism hit its highest since May 2022, while inflation eased with modest price rises. Manufacturing output fell, but renewed hiring hinted at recovery potential.
Growth in the services sector is anticipated to continue this week, with projections indicating a reading of 55.7.

09:00 am – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)
The Claimant Count Change indicates how many individuals have started claiming unemployment benefits in a specific month.
A rise in the claimant count signifies a labor market experiencing a downturn and might negatively impact the GDP.
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the UK increased by 26.7 thousand to 1.806 million in October 2024, following a downwardly revised 10.1 thousand rise in the previous month but falling short of market forecasts of a 30.5 thousand growth.
Analysts predict that the number of people claiming unemployment will increase by 28.2 thousand.

15:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services over time. It covers eight major categories: food, shelter, household operations, clothing, transportation, health and personal care, recreation and education, and alcohol and tobacco.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.0% year-over-year in October, up from 1.6% in September, driven by a smaller decline in gasoline prices. Excluding gasoline, the CPI increased 2.2%. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.4% following a 0.4% decline in September, with a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.3%. Goods prices rose 0.1% year-over-year, reversing a prior decline, while services price growth slowed to 3.6%, the lowest since January 2022. Shelter prices rose 4.8%, with slower rent and mortgage cost increases. Grocery prices rose 2.7%, outpacing overall inflation for the third month, and property taxes surged 6.0%, the highest annual increase since 1992.
Economists expect that Canada’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) will show an increase of 0.1%.

15:30- USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)
The Retail Sales m/m reflects the change in US retail sales from one month to the next. This indicator is used to assess inflation, and an increase in retail sales can positively influence the value of the US dollar.

US retail and food services sales rose to $718.9 billion in October 2024, up 0.4% from September and 2.8% from October 2023. Sales for August to October increased 2.3% year-over-year. Retail trade sales grew 0.4% monthly and 2.6% annually, with nonstore retailers up 7.0% and food services and drinking places rising 4.3% from October 2023.
Analysts forecast a reading of 0.6%.

09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)
The most common method for assessing inflation is the annual inflation rate, which looks at price changes over a 12-month period by comparing the current month’s prices with those from the same month the previous year. CPIH is the most comprehensive inflation measure, including the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) plus owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH) and Council Tax.
The CPI inflation rate increased to 2.3% from 1.7%. On a monthly basis, both CPIH and CPI rose by 0.6%. Core CPIH (excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) rose to 4.1%, while Core CPI increased to 3.3%. The largest upward contributions came from housing, while recreation and culture provided the most significant downward pressure.
Economists project an increase, with expectations for a reading of 2.6%.

21:00 – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)
The Federal Reserve adjusts monetary policy by changing its target range for the federal funds rate, which impacts overnight borrowing rates for banks. Lowering the target, or “easing,” reduces interest rates to stimulate the economy during slow growth, low inflation, or high unemployment. Raising the target, or “tightening,” increases rates to cool an overheating economy, high inflation, or low unemployment. These rate changes affect broader financial conditions, influencing household and business spending and ultimately impacting economic activity, employment, unemployment, and inflation.

In November, the Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds rate by 0.25% to 4.5%-4.75%, citing solid economic growth, slightly higher unemployment, and progress toward its 2% inflation target. The Fed also cut the interest rate on reserve balances to 4.65% and the primary credit rate to 4.75%, reaffirming its commitment to adjust policy based on economic data.
Economists anticipate that the Federal Reserve will reduce the federal funds rate by 0.25%.

23:45 – New Zealand: GDP q/q (NZD)
New Zealand’s Gross domestic product (GDP) is the official measure of economic growth. It is calculated using two methods: the production approach, which measures the total value of goods and services produced minus production costs, and the expenditure approach, which measures final purchases of goods and services, adding exports and subtracting imports. An increase in GDP may have a positive impact on the quotes of the New Zealand dollar (NZD).
In the June 2024 quarter, New Zealand’s GDP fell by 0.2% in seasonally adjusted volume terms, following a 0.1% rise in the March quarter. GDP per capita declined by 0.5%, while real gross national disposable income was flat. Expenditure on GDP was unchanged, though in nominal terms, it rose by 0.6%. Annually, GDP fell by 0.2% compared to the year ended June 2023.
Economists see a decline of 0.2%.

Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)
The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy aims to achieve price stability, which is crucial for supporting economic activity. Price stability helps individuals and firms make informed decisions about consumption and investment, ensuring efficient resource allocation. To this end, the Bank set a 2% inflation target (CPI) in 2013 and remains committed to reaching this goal as soon as possible.
The Bank of Japan held its key interest rate at 0.25% in October, citing global uncertainties. It maintained a 2.5% core inflation forecast for FY 2024, moderating to 1.9% in FY 2025 and FY 2026, with GDP growth projections of 0.6% for 2024 and around 1.0% for the following years.
Analysts anticipate that the Bank of Japan will maintain its current policy rate.

14:00 – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to achieve a 2% inflation target while supporting sustainable economic growth and employment. It adopts a forward-looking, medium-term strategy to ensure inflation remains stable and sustainable.
The Bank of England cut the Bank Rate to 4.75% in November 2024, citing progress in reducing inflation, now at 1.7%, though expected to rise to 2.5% by year-end. GDP growth remains modest, and wage growth has slowed but stays elevated. The Monetary Policy Committee aims to maintain a cautious approach, monitoring inflation risks to ensure progress toward the 2% target.
Economists expect the Bank of England to keep its policy rate at 4.75%.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

US jobless claims rose to 242,000 last week, a two-month high, likely due to seasonal volatility around Thanksgiving. Continuing claims increased to 1.89 million, near a three-year high, reflecting longer job searches. November’s jobless rate rose to 4.2%, signaling a cooling labor market. California, Texas, and New York saw the largest increases in claims.
Analysts predict 245,000 initial jobless claims.

09:00 am – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)
Retail Sales show the changes in the value of retail goods sold in the UK for the given month compared to the previous month. The calculation uses season-adjusted data from British retailers.
The indicator is used in forecasting, budgeting, and developing UK financial and economic policy. Retail sales growth can positively affect British pound quotes.
Retail sales in Great Britain fell 0.7% in October 2024, led by a 1.4% drop in non-food store sales, with clothing stores down 3.1%. Online sales declined 1.2% but increased 5.0% year-on-year. Despite the monthly decline, sales rose 0.8% over the three months to October.
Analysts predict a 0.5 reading.

15:30 – Canada: Retail Sales m/m (CAD)
Canada Retail Sales show changes in the value of goods sold in retail stores in the specified month compared to the previous month. The indicator is calculated based on statistics from several thousand retail stores, and the data is then extrapolated to the whole country.
The indicator evaluates consumer activity and inflation. The indicator growth can have a positive effect on CAD quotes.
Retail sales in Canada rose 0.4% to $66.9 billion in September, driven by a 1.4% increase in core retail sales, led by grocery and liquor stores. Gasoline and motor vehicle sales declined. E-commerce sales grew 3.3%, accounting for 6.2% of total retail trade. Third-quarter sales increased 0.9%, with volumes up 1.3%. An advance estimate indicates a 0.7% rise in October.
Analysts predict a reading of 0.4%.

15:30 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measure the value of goods and services consumed by individuals and households. It’s a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large portion of economic activity in the US. The PCE is often used to track inflation trends, as it includes data on prices paid by consumers. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index as its preferred measure of inflation to guide monetary policy decisions, aiming to maintain price stability in the economy.
In October 2024, US personal income rose 0.6%, disposable income increased 0.7%, and spending grew 0.4%, led by higher services expenditures. The PCE price index rose 0.2%, with core PCE up 0.3%. Real disposable income grew 0.4%, while real spending increased 0.1%. The savings rate stood at 4.4%. Year-over-year, the PCE price index rose 2.3%, driven by healthcare and housing services.
Economists predict a reading of 0.2%.

Wednesday, December 18: GIS (General Mills, Inc.)
Thursday, December 19: NKE (NIKE, Inc.)
Thursday, December 19: FDX (FedEx Corporation)

This week offers a crucial set of data and announcements that will provide valuable insights into global economic performance and policy directions as the year winds down. With a mix of PMI releases, inflation figures, interest rate decisions, and retail sales data across major economies, market participants have much to analyze. Additionally, the earnings reports from key corporations add another layer of perspective on sector-specific trends. The outcomes of these events are expected to set the tone for market movements and economic sentiment heading into the new year.