The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for December 30, 2024 – January 3, 2025 

The upcoming week features several notable economic indicators that may influence global markets. China’s Manufacturing PMI will provide insights into the health of its manufacturing sector, a key driver of global economic activity. In the US, labor market data, crude oil inventory reports, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI will shed light on economic conditions and industry trends. Alongside these reports, key earnings announcements will offer additional signals for investors and policymakers as the year transitions into 2025.

Tuesday 03:30 am (GMT+2) – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) –USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Thursday 18:00 (GMT+2) – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)
Friday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

03:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly indicator of economic activity in China’s manufacturing sector, published by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). It surveys 3,200 enterprises across various industries and regions, measuring key sub-indicators like output, new orders, and employment. A PMI reading above 50 indicates sector expansion, while below 50 signals contraction.

China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in November, signaling an expansion in the sector. Key indices like output (52.4) and new orders (50.8) improved, reflecting increased demand and production. However, challenges persist, with indices for exports (48.1) and employment (48.2) remaining in contraction. Input prices fell sharply to 49.8, while ex-factory prices dropped to 47.7, indicating easing cost pressures. Small enterprises showed slower recovery compared to larger firms. Business expectations climbed to 54.7, highlighting optimism for future growth.

Analysts expect a contractionary reading at 49.7%.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions.

Continuing unemployment claims rose to 1.91 million for the week ending December 14, the highest in over three years, signaling longer periods of unemployment for workers. Initial claims fell slightly to 219,000, indicating layoffs remain low. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged a cooling labor market but noted it remains solid overall.

Analysts predict that the upcoming release will have 219,000 initial claims.

18:00 – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

The Crude Oil Stocks Change Indicator is published weekly by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). It gauges the volume (barrels) of commercial crude oil held by US companies, influencing global oil prices. Increasing stocks signal reduced oil demand, potentially leading to a decline in oil barrel prices.

For the week ending December 13, 2024, crude refinery inputs averaged 16.6 million barrels per day, with crude imports rising to 6.6 million barrels daily. Commercial crude inventories fell by 0.9 million barrels, 6% below the five-year average.

Gasoline stocks rose by 2.3 million barrels, while distillate and propane inventories declined. Total product supply averaged 20.4 million barrels per day, up 1.3% from last year.

Analysts expect that crude oil stockpiles will decrease by 1.286 million.

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index that indicates sector expansion if above 50% and contraction if below. The report tracks changes in key indicators like New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the manufacturing sector’s health and the broader economy.

The November Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4%, indicating continued contraction but at a slower pace than October’s 46.5%. New orders reached 50.4%, signaling weak growth, while production and employment remained in contraction. Prices rose modestly, and inventories improved, but exports and backlogs continued to decline, reflecting weak global demand.

Analysts forecast a contractionary reading of 48.1

Tuesday, December 31: AGPPF (Anglo American Platinum Ltd)
Thursday, January 2: LFCR (Lifecore Biomedical Inc)
Friday, January 3: GBX (Greenbrier Companies Inc)

The upcoming week provides a critical snapshot of global economic dynamics, with key data releases from China and the US offering insights into manufacturing, labor markets, and energy supplies. As China’s Manufacturing PMI reflects its industrial recovery, US reports on unemployment claims and crude oil inventories will highlight domestic economic trends. The ISM Manufacturing PMI will further gauge the health of US manufacturing amid ongoing global challenges. Together, these events are set to shape market sentiment as 2025 begins, providing valuable direction for investors and policymakers alike.