The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for December 9 – 13, 2024

This week features pivotal economic data releases and policy decisions from major global economies. Key highlights include interest rate announcements from Australia, Canada, Switzerland, and the Eurozone, alongside crucial inflation and labor market indicators from the US and the UK. These events are poised to shape currency movements, market sentiment, and economic forecasts. Corporate earnings reports from Oracle, Adobe, and Costco further add to the mix, providing insights into sectoral performance.

Tuesday 5:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)
Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: CPI m/m (USD)
Wednesday 16:45 (GMT+2) – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)
Thursday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)
Thursday 15:15 (GMT+2) – Europe: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: PPI m/m (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)

5:30 am – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)
The interest rate decision is one of the key instruments of the national monetary and credit policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
A higher interest rate leads to the Australian dollar appreciation.
In November, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the cash rate at 4.35%, citing persistently high underlying inflation, which remains at 3.5% and is not expected to reach the 2.5% target midpoint until 2026. Weak economic growth and tight labor market conditions persist, while global and domestic uncertainties add to risks. The RBA reaffirmed its commitment to restrictive policy until inflation sustainably returns to target.
Economists anticipate that the Cash Rate will remain at 4.35%.

15:30 – USA: CPI m/m (USD)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services, reflecting spending patterns of urban consumers and wage earners. It includes indexes like CPI-U for all urban consumers and CPI-W for urban wage earners, covering over 90% of the US population. CPI tracks inflation by comparing current prices to a reference base period.
The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.2% in October, maintaining the same monthly increase for the past three months. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased by 2.6%, with shelter accounting for over half of the monthly rise. Energy prices remained flat, while food prices saw a modest 0.2% increase.
Economists expect that monthly CPI will remain at 0.2%.
16:45 – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)
The Bank of Canada uses the target for the overnight rate, also known as the policy interest rate, to control inflation. This rate influences other interest rates in the economy, affecting loans, mortgages, and savings. The Bank adjusts this rate to either stimulate economic growth by lowering it (encouraging spending) or to curb inflation by raising it (encouraging savings). The target rate is part of the Bank’s broader strategy to maintain economic stability.
On October 23, 2024, the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, citing easing inflation and the need to support growth. GDP is projected to rise gradually, reaching 2.3% by 2026, driven by stronger consumer spending and housing investment. Inflation, now at 1.6%, has normalized, but the Bank remains cautious and may lower rates further based on economic conditions.
Economists anticipate a 50 basis points reduction.

10:30 am – Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)
On September 26, 2024, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowered its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.0%, effective September 27, to address declining inflationary pressures. Inflation fell to 1.1% in August, driven by lower imported goods prices and the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The SNB projects average annual inflation at 1.2% in 2024, declining further to 0.6% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026.
Economists forecast a cut of 25 basis points.
15:15 – Europe: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)
On October 17, 2024, the ECB cut its key interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the deposit facility rate to 3.25%. The decision reflects progress in reducing inflation and weaker economic activity, though wage-driven domestic inflation remains high.
Analysts expect that the ECB will proceed to a 25 basis point cut.
17:30 – USA: PPI m/m (USD)
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in prices received by producers for goods, services, and construction. The PPI covers a broad range of industries and is used alongside other economic indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures price changes from the buyer’s perspective. Growth in the index can have a positive effect on dollar quotes.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2% in October 2024, with a 2.4% year-over-year increase. Core PPI, excluding food, energy, and trade, climbed 0.3% monthly and 3.5% annually. Higher costs for services and materials, including portfolio management and carbon steel scrap, drove the rise, while some energy and food prices declined.
Economists expect a reading of 0.3%.
15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.
For the week ending November 30, seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims rose by 9,000 to 224,000, while insured unemployment dropped to 1.2% with 1.87 million claims. Unadjusted claims fell 14.3% to 210,166, reflecting mixed labor market trends.
Analysts predict a monthly reading of 221,000.

09:00 am – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the value of all goods and services produced in the UK in the current month compared to the previous month. The GDP calculation also includes expenditure on manufactured goods and provided services. Growth in GDP growth may have a positive effect on the pound quotes.
UK GDP rose by 0.1% in Q3 2024, up 1.0% year-over-year. Growth was supported by construction (+0.8%), services (+0.1%), and higher household spending, while production fell (-0.2%). Nominal GDP increased by 0.8%, driven by employee compensation and other income.
Analysts predict that the UK’s GDP will grow by 0.1%.

Monday, December 9: Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
Wednesday, December 11: Adobe Inc. (ADBE)
Thursday, December 12: Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

This week is set to deliver significant economic insights, with major central bank decisions and inflation data shaping the global economic outlook. Key rate announcements from Australia, Canada, Switzerland, and the Eurozone, along with critical US inflation and labor data, will influence financial markets and policy trajectories. Additionally, corporate earnings from Oracle, Adobe, and Costco provide a glimpse into sectoral performance amid evolving economic conditions. These developments will be closely monitored for their impact on currency movements, market sentiment, and economic forecasts.