The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for February 10 – 14, 2025 

This week brings a mix of economic data releases and corporate earnings. US CPI and crude oil inventories are scheduled for Wednesday, while Thursday features GDP figures from the UK, Switzerland’s CPI, and US PPI and unemployment claims. On Friday, U.S. retail sales data will be released.

Several major companies, including McDonald’s, BP, and Coca-Cola, will also report their earnings, adding to the week’s market activity.

Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: CPI m/m (USD)
Wednesday 17:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)
Thursday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)
Thursday 09:30 am (GMT+2) – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: PPI m/m (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

15:30 – USA: CPI m/m (USD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services, reflecting spending patterns of urban consumers and wage earners. It includes indexes like CPI-U for all urban consumers and CPI-W for urban wage earners, covering over 90% of the US population. CPI tracks inflation by comparing current prices to a reference base period.

The CPI-U rose 0.4% in December, up from 0.3% in November, with a 2.9% increase over the past year. Energy prices surged 2.6%, driven by a 4.4% rise in gasoline. Food prices increased 0.3%, both at home and away. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.2%, with gains in shelter, airline fares, and used cars, while personal care and communication costs fell. Over the year, core inflation rose 3.2%, energy fell 0.5%, and food increased 2.5%.

Analysts anticipate a reading of 0.3%.

17:30 – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

The Crude Oil Stocks Change Indicator is published weekly by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). It gauges the volume (barrels) of commercial crude oil held by US companies, influencing global oil prices. Increasing stocks signal reduced oil demand, potentially leading to a decline in oil barrel prices.

Refinery inputs rose to 15.3M bpd, and crude imports hit 6.9M bpd. Crude inventories grew by 8.7M barrels but remained 5% below the five-year average. Gasoline stocks rose, distillates fell, and total petroleum inventories dropped 2.7M barrels. Product demand rose 3.3% from last year.

09:00 am – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures a country’s economic size and health over time, typically quarterly or annually. It can be calculated by totaling the value of goods and services produced, income earned, or spending. Household spending is the largest component, making up about two-thirds of GDP. Growth in GDP signals an expanding economy.

UK GDP grew by 0.1% in November 2024 after a 0.1% decline in October, with no overall growth in the three months to November. Services rose 0.1%, production fell 0.4% due to manufacturing declines, and construction grew 0.4%. Compared to November 2023, GDP was 1.0% higher.

Analysts anticipate a reading of 0.1%.

09:30 am – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the changes in the prices of goods and services that reflect the spending habits of private households in Switzerland.

It shows how much consumers need to adjust their spending to maintain the same level of consumption despite price fluctuations.

The CPI fell by 0.1% in December 2024, reaching 106.9 points (December 2020 = 100). Inflation rose 0.6% year-over-year, while average annual inflation for 2024 stood at 1.1%.

Analysts project a reading of -0.1%.

15:30 – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in prices received by producers for goods, services, and construction. The PPI covers a broad range of industries and is used alongside other economic indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures price changes from the buyer’s perspective. Growth in the index can have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

The PPI rose 0.2% in December, driven by a 0.6% increase in goods, while services were unchanged. For 2024, the PPI increased by 3.3%, up from 1.1% in 2023. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, prices edged up 0.1% in December and 3.3% over the year.

Analysts expect a reading at 0.2%.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

Initial claims rose by 11,000 to 219,000, while the insured unemployment rate held at 1.2%. Total insured unemployment increased by 36,000 to 1.89 million.

Analysts anticipate a figure of 221,000.

15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

The Retail Sales m/m reflects the change in US retail sales from one month to the next. This indicator is used to assess inflation, and an increase in retail sales can positively influence the value of the US dollar.

Retail and food services sales rose 0.4% in December 2024 to $729.2 billion, up 3.9% from December 2023. Total sales for 2024 increased 3.0% from the previous year. Retail trade sales grew 0.6% from November and 4.2% year-over-year, with motor vehicle and parts dealers up 8.4% and nonstore retailers up 6.0% from December 2023.

Economists expect upcoming Retail Sales to remain unchanged (0.0%).

Monday, February 10: MCD (McDonald’s Corporation)
Tuesday, February 11: AIG (American International Group, Inc.)
Tuesday, February 11: BP (BP p.l.c.)
Tuesday, February 11: KO (The Coca-Cola Company)
Tuesday, February 11: LYFT (Lyft, Inc.)

With a range of economic data and corporate earnings on the horizon, this week will provide key insights into inflation, labor market conditions, and overall economic health in the US, UK, and Switzerland. These indicators, combined with earnings from major companies like McDonald’s, BP, and Coca-Cola, are likely to shape market sentiment and influence trading activity across sectors.