The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for July 13 – 17, 2026

Overview

Markets face a busy week of high-impact economic events, with inflation, central bank policy, energy inventories, growth data, labor market figures, and consumer spending all in focus. Traders will closely watch U.S. CPI and PPI for fresh inflation signals, the Bank of Canada’s rate decision, UK GDP, U.S. jobless claims, and retail sales. These releases could influence expectations for interest rates and drive volatility across the USD, CAD, GBP, oil, gold, and major currency pairs.

High Impact Economic Events

Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: CPI m/m (USD)

Wednesday 15:30 am (GMT+3) – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

Wednesday 16:45 (GMT+3) – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)

Wednesday 17:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

Thursday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

Tuesday, July 14

15:30 – USA: CPI m/m (USD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services, reflecting the spending patterns of urban consumers and wage earners. It includes indexes such as CPI-U for all urban consumers and CPI-W for urban wage earners, which together cover over 90% of the US population. CPI tracks inflation by comparing current prices to a reference base period.

US inflation rose again in May, with consumer prices increasing by 0.5% after a 0.6% rise in April. Over the past year, prices were up 4.2%, showing that inflation pressures remained elevated.

Energy prices were the biggest driver, rising 3.9% in May and accounting for more than half of the overall monthly increase. Shelter and food costs also moved higher, although at a slower pace.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% during the month. Prices increased for communication, airline fares, medical care, personal care, and recreation. At the same time, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings, and new vehicles became cheaper.

Overall, the data show that inflation is still being pushed mainly by higher energy costs, while broader price pressures remain more moderate.

Economists expect the monthly CPI to decline by 0.1% in the next release.

Wednesday, July 15

15:30 – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in prices received by producers for goods, services, and construction. The PPI covers a broad range of industries and is used alongside other economic indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures price changes from the buyer’s perspective. Growth in the index can have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

US producer prices rose sharply in May, increasing by 1.1% for the second month in a row. Over the past year, producer prices were up 6.5%, marking the largest annual increase since November 2022.

Most of the monthly increase came from higher goods prices, which rose 2.8% and accounted for nearly 80% of the overall rise. Services prices increased more modestly, rising 0.3%.

Core producer prices, which exclude food, energy, and trade services, rose 0.8% in May. This suggests that inflation pressures are not only coming from volatile categories but are also spreading more broadly across the economy.

Economists expect producer prices to stay flat in the next release.

16:45 – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)

The Bank of Canada uses the target for the overnight rate, also known as the policy interest rate, to control inflation. This rate influences other interest rates in the economy, affecting loans, mortgages, and savings. The Bank adjusts this rate to either stimulate economic growth by lowering it (encouraging spending) or to curb inflation by raising it (encouraging savings). The target rate is part of the Bank’s broader strategy to maintain economic stability.

On June 10, 2026, the Bank of Canada kept its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, as the economy remained weak but inflation risks had not fully disappeared.

Canada’s economy shrank slightly in the first quarter, with weaker housing activity, soft business investment, lower exports, and limited job growth since the start of the year. The unemployment rate remained elevated, at 6.6% in May.

Inflation rose to 2.8% in April, mainly because of higher energy prices. Food prices remained high, while shelter inflation continued to slow. The Bank expected inflation to stay near 3% in the short term before gradually moving back toward 2%.

Overall, the Bank of Canada kept rates steady while watching energy prices, global tensions, and trade uncertainty closely. It said it was ready to act if inflation became more persistent.

Economists expect the Bank of Canada to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.25% at its next meeting.

17:30 – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

The Crude Oil Stocks Change Indicator is published weekly by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). It gauges the volume (barrels) of commercial crude oil held by US companies, influencing global oil prices. Increasing oil stocks signal reduced oil demand, potentially leading to a decline in oil prices per barrel.

US crude oil inventories rose by 3.0 million barrels in the week ending July 3, 2026, even though total commercial petroleum inventories fell by 4.0 million barrels. Crude stocks stood at 411.4 million barrels, still about 6% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Refinery activity remained strong, with refineries operating at 95.8% of capacity, although crude oil inputs, gasoline production, and distillate fuel production all declined from the previous week.

Gasoline inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels, while distillate fuel inventories dropped sharply by 5.0 million barrels. Both remain below their five-year averages, suggesting tighter supply conditions.

Overall demand was little changed, with total products supplied over the past four weeks up slightly from last year. Gasoline demand was lower, distillate demand slipped, while jet fuel demand increased.

Thursday, July 16

09:00 am – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures a country’s economic size and health over time, typically quarterly or annually. It can be calculated by totaling the value of goods and services produced, income earned, or spending. Household spending is the largest component, making up about two-thirds of GDP. Growth in GDP signals an expanding economy, but it doesn’t capture all aspects of economic well-being.

The UK economy grew by 0.7% in the three months to April 2026, marking the fifth straight period of three-month growth. This shows that the economy continued to expand, although growth was uneven across different sectors.

Services were the main driver, rising 0.8%, while construction grew strongly by 1.6%. However, production output slipped by 0.1%, showing some weakness in manufacturing and related industries.

On a monthly basis, GDP fell by 0.1% in April after growing in February and March. This was the first monthly decline since August 2025, mainly due to weaker services activity.

Compared with a year earlier, GDP was up 1.1% over the three months to April, suggesting the economy is still growing, but at a modest pace.

Economists expect UK GDP to increase by 0.1% in the next release.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

US jobless claims fell slightly in the week ending July 4, with 215,000 people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. This was 2,000 fewer than the revised total from the previous week.

The four-week average also declined, suggesting that layoffs remain relatively low and the labor market is still holding up.

Continuing claims, which count people already receiving unemployment benefits, rose by 8,000 to 1.81 million. The insured unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 1.2%.

Overall, the data points to a stable labor market, with fewer new claims but a small increase in people continuing to receive benefits.

Economists expect initial unemployment claims to rise to 215,000 in the next report.

15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

The Retail Sales m/m reflects the change in US retail sales from one month to the next. The indicator is used to assess inflation, and an increase in retail sales can positively influence the value of the US dollar.

US retail sales rose by 0.9% in May 2026, showing that consumer spending remained strong. Sales were also 6.9% higher than a year earlier, with online retailers seeing especially strong growth.

Economists expect employment to rise by 0.3% in the next report.

Company Earnings (July 13 – 16)

Monday, July 13: GE (GE Aerospace)

Monday, July 13: NFLX (Netflix, Inc.)

Tuesday, July 14: JPM (JPMorgan Chase & Co.)

Tuesday, July 14: BAC (Bank of America Corporation)

Tuesday, July 14: GS (The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.)

Tuesday, July 14: WFC (Wells Fargo & Company)

Tuesday, July 14: C (Citigroup Inc.)

Wednesday, July 15: JNJ (Johnson & Johnson)

Wednesday, July 15: MS (Morgan Stanley)

Wednesday, July 15: BLK (BlackRock, Inc.)

Thursday, July 16: GE (GE Aerospace)

Thursday, July 16: NFLX (Netflix, Inc.)

Conclusion

Overall, this week’s data could play an important role in shaping market expectations for inflation, growth, and central bank policy. Softer inflation or weaker economic figures may support hopes for easier policy, while stronger data could keep pressure on policymakers to remain cautious. With several major releases due across the U.S., Canada, and the UK, traders should be prepared for increased volatility across currencies, commodities, and equity markets.