The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for July 6 – 10, 2026

Overview

Markets face a focused but important week of high-impact economic events, with attention on US services activity, New Zealand’s interest rate decision, US oil inventories, jobless claims, and Canada’s employment report. These releases may shape expectations for economic growth, inflation, labor market strength, and central bank policy, potentially driving volatility across the USD, NZD, CAD, oil, and broader financial markets.

High Impact Economic Events

Monday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

Wednesday 05:00 am (GMT+3) – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)

Wednesday 17:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Monday, July 6

17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector. It is based on surveys of business executives in industries such as finance, healthcare, retail, and other service-oriented areas. The index reflects changes in key variables such as new business, employment, prices, and output. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. It is a critical gauge for assessing economic health and guiding monetary policy decisions.

The ISM Services PMI rose to 54.5% in May from 53.6% in April, marking the 23rd straight month of expansion in the services sector. Business activity and new orders strengthened, while 17 industries reported growth. However, employment remained weak for a third consecutive month as firms continued hiring freezes or avoided replacing departing workers. Price pressures also stayed elevated, with the Prices Index reaching its highest level since August 2022, driven mainly by petroleum-related costs. Inventories jumped sharply to a record-equaling level, but firms remained confident that demand would stay strong.

Economists expect the Services PMI to slip to 54.2 in the next release.

Wednesday, July 8

05:00 am – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reviews its interest rate policy every six weeks, setting the rate at which loans are provided to commercial banks. This rate is a key instrument of the RBNZ’s monetary policy, aimed at managing the strength of the New Zealand dollar (NZD). A rate increase typically strengthens the NZD by attracting foreign capital and boosting demand for the currency. Consequently, market participants closely monitor changes in the interest rate to determine their potential impact on NZD performance.

The Monetary Policy Committee held the OCR at 2.25% on 27 May 2026, while warning that inflation risks have increased due to the Middle East conflict, supply disruptions, and higher petrochemical prices. Annual inflation stood at 3.1% in the March quarter and is expected to peak at 4.3% in the September quarter before returning to the 2% target midpoint in mid-2027. The Committee also signaled that the OCR may need to rise sooner and by more than previously expected if medium-term inflation pressures remain elevated.

Economists anticipate a 25-basis-point increase in the next review.

17:30 – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

The Crude Oil Stocks Change Indicator is published weekly by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). It gauges the volume (barrels) of commercial crude oil held by US companies, influencing global oil prices. Increasing stocks signal reduced oil demand, potentially leading to a decline in oil barrel prices.

US refinery activity strengthened in the week ending June 26, 2026, with crude inputs rising to 17.2 million barrels per day and refinery utilization increasing to 96.6%. Gasoline production rose to 10.0 million barrels per day, while distillate output slipped to 5.2 million barrels per day. Crude imports declined to 5.3 million barrels per day, and commercial crude inventories fell by 3.8 million barrels to 408.4 million, remaining about 7% below the five-year average. Gasoline inventories also dropped, while distillate and propane stocks increased. Overall, petroleum demand was slightly stronger, with total products supplied up 1.7% from a year earlier.

Thursday, July 9

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

US jobless claims edged lower in the week ending June 27, suggesting layoffs remained limited. Initial unemployment claims fell by 1,000 to 215,000, while the four-week average also declined to 222,000, showing a slightly improving short-term trend.

However, the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits rose slightly to 1.814 million, and the four-week average increased. This suggests that while fewer people are losing jobs, some unemployed workers may be taking longer to find new work.

Economists expect initial unemployment claims to rise to 218,000 in the next report.

Friday, July 10

15:30 – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Change in the number of employed individuals in the previous month. In general, when the actual figure is greater than the forecast, it is positive for the currency.

Canada’s job market improved in May, with employment rising by 88,000 and the unemployment rate falling to 6.6%. Most of the gain came from full-time work, while youth employment also improved. Jobs increased mainly in construction, transportation, recreation, and food services, but retail and wholesale trade lost workers. Wages were up 3.0% from a year earlier.

Economists expect employment to rise by 10,000 in the next report.

Company Earnings (July 6 – 10)

Wednesday, July 8: LEVI (Levi Strauss & Co.)

Thursday, July 9: PEP (PepsiCo, Inc.)

Friday, July 10: DAL (Delta Air Lines, Inc.)

Conclusion

Overall, the week ahead may provide important signals about the strength of the US economy, the direction of New Zealand monetary policy, oil demand conditions, and labor market trends in both the US and Canada. With inflation, interest rates, employment, and energy supply still in focus, traders should watch for surprises that could influence currency, commodity, and equity market sentiment.