The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for March 17 – 21, 2025 

This week brings several high-impact economic events that could shape market sentiment across major currencies and asset classes. Key data releases include US retail sales, Canada’s inflation report, Japan’s BOJ policy decision, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement. Investors will also closely watch GDP figures from New Zealand, employment data from Australia, and policy rate decisions from the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. Additionally, US unemployment claims and Canada’s core retail sales will provide further insights into the labor market and consumer trends.

Monday 14:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)
Tuesday 14:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)
Wednesday Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)
Wednesday 20:00 (GMT+2) – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)
Wednesday 23:45 (GMT+2) – New Zealand: GDP q/q (NZD)
Thursday 02:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)
Thursday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)
Thursday 14:00 (GMT+2) – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)
Thursday 14:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 14:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: Core Retail Sales m/m (CAD)

14:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

The Retail Sales m/m reflects the change in US retail sales from one month to the next. This indicator is used to assess inflation, and an increase in retail sales can positively influence the value of the US dollar.

US retail and food services sales totaled $723.9 billion in January 2025, a 0.9% drop from December but 4.2% above January 2024. November-to-January sales rose 4.2% year over year, with the November-to-December increase revised to 0.7% (from 0.4%). Retail trade dipped 1.2% on the month but was up 4.0% annually, led by motor vehicle and parts dealers (+6.4%) and food service/drinking places (+5.4%) compared to a year ago.

Economists anticipate an increase of 0.7%.

14:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD) 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services over time. It covers eight major categories: food, shelter, household operations, clothing, transportation, health and personal care, recreation and education, and alcohol and tobacco.

Consumer prices rose 1.9% in January, up from 1.8% in December, mainly driven by higher energy costs. Excluding gasoline, the CPI gained 1.7%. Food prices declined 0.6%, marking their first annual drop since May 2017, primarily due to a sharp decrease in restaurant food costs. On a monthly basis, the CPI edged up 0.1% in January, reversing a 0.4% decline in December.

Analysts anticipate that the upcoming release will indicate a modest increase to 0.6%.

Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy aims to achieve price stability, which is crucial for supporting economic activity. Price stability helps individuals and firms make informed decisions about consumption and investment, ensuring efficient resource allocation. To this end, the Bank set a 2% inflation target (CPI) in 2013 and remains committed to reaching this goal as soon as possible.

In January, the Bank of Japan decided, by majority vote, to maintain the overnight call rate at around 0.5%. As part of this change, the complementary deposit facility rate was set at 0.5%, and the basic loan rate was raised to 0.75%.

Economists predict that there will be no changes.

20:00 – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)

The Federal Reserve adjusts monetary policy by changing its target range for the federal funds rate, which impacts overnight borrowing rates for banks. Lowering the target, or “easing,” reduces interest rates to stimulate the economy during slow growth, low inflation, or high unemployment. Raising the target, or “tightening,” increases rates to cool an overheating economy, high inflation, or low unemployment. These rate changes affect broader financial conditions, influencing household and business spending and ultimately impacting economic activity, employment, unemployment, and inflation.

In January 2025, the Fed kept the fed funds rate steady at the 4.25%-4.5% range, pausing its rate-cutting cycle after three consecutive reductions in 2024.

Economists expect that no changes will be announced at the upcoming meeting.

23:45 – New Zealand: GDP q/q (NZD)

New Zealand’s Gross domestic product is the official measure of economic growth. It is calculated using two methods: the production approach, which measures the total value of goods and services produced minus production costs, and the expenditure approach, which measures final purchases of goods and services, adding exports and subtracting imports. An increase in GDP may have a positive impact on the quotes of the New Zealand dollar (NZD).

New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell 1.0 percent in the September 2024 quarter, following a revised 1.1 percent decrease in the June 2024 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ.

Analysts project a reading of 0.4%.

02:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

The Australia Employment Change tracks the monthly variation in the number of officially employed individuals in the country. An increase in employment indicates a stronger labor market and can positively influence the value of the Australian dollar.

Australia’s employment jumped by 44,000 to a record 14.63 million in January 2025, outpacing forecasts of 20,000. Full-time work surged by 54,100, while part-time positions fell by 10,100. Overall, employment grew by 498,300 (3.5%) year over year.

Economists expect a reading of 29,800.

10:30 am – Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank cut its policy rate by 0.5 points to 0.5% on December 13, 2024.

Economists anticipate a further reduction of 25 basis points.

14:00 – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to achieve a 2% inflation target while supporting sustainable economic growth and employment. It adopts a forward-looking, medium-term strategy to ensure inflation remains stable and sustainable.

In February, the Monetary Policy Committee lowered the Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5% with a 7–2 majority vote.

Economists expect that the official bank rate will remain unchanged.

14:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions.

Initial jobless claims dropped by 2,000 to 220,000 in the week ending March 8, while the four-week moving average rose to 226,000. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% for the week ending March 1, with insured unemployment falling by 27,000 to 1.87 million. Its four-week average edged up to 1,872,250.

Economists expect unemployment claims to increase by 222,000.

15:30 – Canada: Core Retail Sales m/m (CAD)

Canada’s Retail Sales track the month-to-month changes in the value of goods sold by retail stores. This measurement is based on data collected from thousands of retail outlets, which is then scaled up to represent the entire country’s retail activity.

Retail sales jumped 2.5% to $69.6 billion in December, with broad-based gains led by food and beverage retailers and motor vehicle/parts dealers. Core retail sales (excluding gas and autos) also rose 2.5%. Fourth-quarter sales climbed 2.4% overall, while 2024 sales were up 1.3%—driven largely by motor vehicle and parts dealers—reflecting a 0.7% increase in sales volumes.

Economists anticipate that there will be no changes.

Thursday, March 20: NKE ( NIKE, Inc.)

In conclusion, next week’s lineup of policy decisions, economic indicators, and earnings reports offers plenty of potential market-moving developments. Traders and investors should stay alert, as each release—particularly those from the U.S., Canada, Japan, and the UK—can influence currency values, bond yields, and equity markets. Monitoring these events closely will help market participants anticipate shifts in sentiment and position themselves accordingly.