The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for March 3 – 7, 2025 

Several high-impact economic events and data releases are scheduled for the upcoming week, spanning key global economies such as the United States, Australia, Switzerland, Canada, and the Eurozone. Central bank decisions, employment reports, and Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings will provide fresh insights into economic health and policy directions, creating potentially significant market volatility. Below is a brief overview of the major releases and relevant highlights.

Monday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Wednesday 02:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: GDP q/q (AUD)

Wednesday 09:30 am (GMT+2) – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

Wednesday 15:15 (GMT+2) – USA: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Wednesday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

Thursday 15:15 (GMT+2) – Europe: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index indicating sector expansion if above 50% and contraction below. The report tracks changes in key indicators like New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the manufacturing sector’s health and the broader economy.

Manufacturing activity returned to growth in January 2025, with the PMI reaching 50.9% after 26 months of contraction. New Orders, Production, and Employment expanded while inventories shrank and prices continued to rise.

Economists expect a growth rate of 50.6%.

02:30 am – Australia: GDP q/q (AUD)

It indicates Australia’s economic activity and health; it measures the change in the total value of all goods and services produced in Australia in the current quarter compared to the previous.

Growth in the report can have a positive effect on AUD quotes.

The Australian economy expanded by 0.3% (seasonally adjusted) in September 2024. In nominal terms, GDP rose by 0.4%, while the terms of trade declined by 2.5%. Notably, the household saving-to-income ratio increased to 3.2%, up from 2.4%.

Economists anticipate a reading of 0.5%.

09:30 am – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

The Consumer Price Index tracks the changes in the prices of goods and services that reflect the spending habits of private households in Switzerland. It shows how much consumers need to adjust their spending to maintain the same level of consumption despite price fluctuations.

Switzerland’s January 2025 CPI dipped 0.1% from December but rose 0.4% annually, largely due to cheaper electricity, accommodation, and air travel, offset by higher hotel and insurance costs.

Analysts projrect a reading of 0.5%.

15:15 – USA: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The ADP Non-farm Employment Change tracks the monthly change in employment across 19 manufacturing sectors in the US, excluding the agriculture and government sectors, based on the aggregated and anonymized payroll data of more than 25 million US employees.

Employment growth may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

Private employers added 183,000 jobs in January, extending late-2024 hiring momentum. However, manufacturing lagged, highlighting a labor-market divide. Consumer-facing industries drove growth, while job gains in business services and production were relatively weaker.

Analysts expect that private employers will add 144,000 jobs.

17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

The ISM Services PMI measures activity in the US service sector for the reporting month. It is derived from a survey of supply executives in the services sector. Readings above 50 can have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

In January, the Services PMI registered 52.8%, marking the sector’s seventh consecutive month of expansion but at a slower pace than in December. Business Activity, New Orders, and Employment remained in growth territory, while Supplier Deliveries continued to slow.

Economists expect a growth figure of 53.0.

15:15 – Europe: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)

ECB Interest Rate Decision is announced after the European Central Bank meetings, during which the Eurozone’s monetary policy is discussed. The interest rate decisions are made depending on the inflationary outlook and economic growth.

Cut in deposit rates may have a negative effect on EUR quotes.

On January 30, the ECB’s Governing Council lowered its three key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility to 2.75%, the main refinancing rate to 2.90%, and the marginal lending facility to 3.15%, effective February 5, 2025.

Economists anticipate a rate cut by 25 basis points.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Initial Jobless Claims show the number of people filing to receive unemployment insurance benefits for the first time over the past week.

The indicator is used to assess the state of the labor market. Since the weekly flow of data causes high volatility, the four-week average values are used most often for interpretation.

Indicator growth can have a negative effect on US dollar quotes.

Initial weekly jobless claims rose by 5,000 to 219,000 (seasonally adjusted), while the insured unemployment rate held at 1.2%. The four-week average of initial claims edged down to 215,250, and insured unemployment increased by 24,000 to 1.869 million.

Analysts estimate that 236,000 individuals will file for unemployment insurance benefits.

15:30 – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Canada Employment Change shows a change in the number of officially employed Canadians in the reported month.

The indicator is used when measuring Canada’s labor market. Indicator growth can have a positive effect on CAD quotes.

Employment rose by 76,000 (+0.4%) in January, lifting the employment rate to 61.1% and lowering the unemployment rate to 6.6%. Gains were led by youth (15-24), core working-age adults, manufacturing, and professional services. Average hourly wages grew 3.5% year-over-year to $35.99, while total hours worked rose 0.9% in January and 2.2% annually.

Economists anticipate that employment will edge higher by 17,800.

15:30 – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The Non-farm Payrolls report reveals the number of new jobs created during the given month in all non-agricultural sectors of the US.

Growth in the indicator may have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 143,000 in January, bringing the unemployment rate down to 4.0%. Job gains were reported in health care, retail, and social assistance, while mining-related industries saw declines.

Economists forecast that there will be 156,000 new jobs created.

Thursday, March 6: COST (Costco Wholesale Corporation)

Overall, the week ahead promises heightened market activity, with several significant indicators—from manufacturing and services PMIs to GDP and employment data—providing insight into global economic trends. The ECB’s interest rate decision will also shape expectations for the Eurozone’s monetary path, while labor figures from the US and Canada could influence currency valuations. Traders should monitor these events closely, as they may create substantial volatility across major markets.