The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for May 26 – 31, 2025

Several key economic indicators and central bank decisions are scheduled this week, offering insights into inflation trends, monetary policy direction, labor market conditions, and economic growth across major economies. From Australia’s CPI and New Zealand’s interest rate decision to US GDP, unemployment claims, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the Core PCE—markets will be watching closely. Germany, Canada, and China will also release vital data that could influence global sentiment. In addition, major earnings reports from HP, NVIDIA, and Costco are expected midweek.

High Impact Economic Events

Wednesday 4:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)

Wednesday 5:00 am (GMT+3) – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Prelim GDP q/q (USD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday All Day – Germany: Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Saturday 4:30 am (GMT+3) – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

Wednesday, May 28

4:30 am – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)

The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of goods and services across various categories of household expenditures. This data provides insight into consumer price trends, helping assess the cost of living and inflationary pressures. The CPI is used by policymakers, including central banks, to guide decisions on monetary policy, such as interest rates, and by businesses to adjust pricing strategies and contracts linked to inflation.

Australia’s monthly CPI rose 2.4% in the year to March, unchanged from February. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like fuel, fresh food, and holiday travel, eased slightly to 2.6% from 2.7%. The trimmed mean inflation—a measure that smooths out extreme price changes—held steady at 2.7% for the second consecutive month.

Economists project that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will grow by 2.3%.

5:00 am – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reviews its interest rate policy every six weeks, setting the rate at which loans are provided to commercial banks. This rate is a key instrument of the RBNZ’s monetary policy, aimed at managing the strength of the New Zealand dollar (NZD). A rate increase typically strengthens the NZD by attracting foreign capital and boosting demand for the currency. Consequently, market participants closely monitor changes in the interest rate to determine their potential impact on NZD performance.

In April, New Zealand’s central bank cut the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%, citing stable inflation near target and weak domestic demand. Global trade tensions pose downside risks, giving the Committee room to ease policy further if needed.

Economists predict an additional reduction of 25 basis points.

Thursday, May 29

15:30 – USA: Prelim GDP q/q (USD)

The Prelim Gross Domestic Product represents the valuation of all goods and services produced in the United States in the current quarter compared to the previous one.

GDP growth may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

Economists anticipate a reading of -0.3%.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

In the week ending May 17, US initial jobless claims fell slightly to 227,000, while the 4-week average rose to 231,500. Continuing claims increased to 1.9 million for the week ending May 10, pushing the 4-week average to its highest level since November 2021. The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2%.

Analysts expect initial jobless claims to come in at 229,000.

Friday, May 30

All Day – Germany: Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)

Germany’s inflation eased to 2.1% in April 2025, down from 2.2% in March. Falling energy prices helped slow overall inflation while rising food and service costs exerted upward pressure. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.4%.

Analysts predict a monthly reading of 0.1%.

15:30 – Canada GDP m/m (CAD)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a key measure of the economic output of a country or region. It represents the total value of goods and services produced minus intermediate consumption like raw materials or components. GDP can be calculated using methods such as the value-added approach, which looks at the contribution of each sector to the economy. When GDP grows, it indicates economic expansion, while a slowdown or negative GDP may signal a recession. It’s used as a benchmark for the overall health of an economy.

Canada’s real GDP fell 0.2% in February, partially offsetting January’s 0.4% gain. The decline was led by goods-producing industries, particularly mining and construction. Services edged down 0.1%, with mixed performance across sectors as 12 of 20 industries contracted.

Analysts predict that Canada’s GDP will grow by 0.2%.

15:30 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measure the value of goods and services consumed by individuals and households. It’s a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large portion of economic activity in the US. The PCE is often used to track inflation trends, as it includes data on prices paid by consumers. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index as its preferred measure of inflation to guide monetary policy decisions, aiming to maintain price stability in the economy.

In March, US personal income rose by 0.5% ($116.8 billion), while disposable income increased by the same rate. Personal consumption expenditures grew 0.7% ($134.5 billion), driven by higher spending on both goods and services. The personal saving rate stood at 3.9%. Inflation remained flat, with the PCE price index showing little change, and the Core PCE Price Index—which excludes food and energy—increased by less than 0.1%, signaling subdued underlying inflation pressures.

Economists expect a Core PCE reading of 0.1%.

Saturday, May 31

4:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly indicator of economic activity in China’s manufacturing sector, published by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). It surveys 3,200 enterprises across various industries and regions, measuring key sub-indicators like output, new orders, and employment. A PMI reading above 50 indicates sector expansion, while below 50 signals contraction.

China’s manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0 in April, indicating contraction. Output, new orders, inventories, and employment all declined, while only supplier delivery times slightly improved. All enterprise sizes remained below the 50 threshold.

Economists expect a contractionary reading of 49.5.

Company Earnings (May 26 – 31)

Wednesday, May 28: HP Inc. (HPQ)

Wednesday, May 28: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Thursday, May 29: Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

Conclusion

With a full slate of high-impact economic releases and major earnings announcements, the final week of May is set to offer crucial insights into global economic momentum. Market participants will be closely watching inflation signals, monetary policy shifts, and growth data across key economies, including the US, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Germany, and China. The outcomes of these events could shape near-term market sentiment and influence central bank outlooks heading into June.