The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for November 4 – 8, 2024

Key economic events for the week include the US presidential election on November 5, Australia’s cash rate decision, and key indicators like the ISM Services PMI and US unemployment claims. The UK and US are anticipated to make rate adjustments, while Canada reports on employment. Major earnings releases include AIG, Devon Energy, eBay, and Lyft.

Tuesday All Day – USA: Presidential Election (USD)

Tuesday 05:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

Tuesday 23:45 (GMT+2) – New Zealand: Employment Change q/q (NZD)

Thursday 14:00 (GMT+2) – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Thursday 21:00 (GMT+2) – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USA)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

All Day – USA: Presidential Election (USD)
The US presidential election is tomorrow, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump locked in a close race. Key issues like the economy and healthcare are driving voters as both candidates make their final pitches in this highly anticipated election.

05:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)
The interest rate decision is one of the key instruments of the national monetary and credit policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

A higher interest rate leads to the Australian dollar appreciation.

The Board, in its meeting following September 24, decided to keep the cash rate at 4.35% and the rate on Exchange Settlement balances at 4.25%, citing persistent inflation above the 2–3% target range.

Economists anticipate that the cash rate will stay at 4.35%.
17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)
The ISM Services PMI measures activity in the US service sector for the reporting month. It is derived from a survey of supply executives in the services sector. Readings above 50 can have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

In September, the Services PMI rose to 54.9%, the highest since February 2023, marking continued sector growth.

Economists see growth for the fourth consecutive month, anticipating a reading of 53.4.
23:45 (GMT+2) – NZD: Employment Change q/q (NZD)
Employment Change shows the change in the number of employed people in New Zealand for the specific quarter compared to the previous one.

An increase in employment numbers implies growth in consumer spending, which in turn may have a positive effect on the New Zealand dollar quotes.

Economists expect a decrease in employment compared to the previous quarter, projecting a change of -0.4%.

14:00 (GMT+2) – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to achieve a 2% inflation target while supporting sustainable economic growth and employment. It adopts a forward-looking, medium-term strategy to ensure inflation remains stable and sustainable.

In September 2024, the MPC held the Bank Rate steady at 5% with an 8–1 vote, as one member preferred a reduction. The Committee unanimously agreed to cut UK government bond holdings by £100 billion over the next year. This decision aims to curb persistent inflation, targeting a steady return to the 2% CPI goal.

Economists anticipate a rate cut of 25 basis points.
15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

Analysts predict that 220,000 individuals filed for unemployment for the first time.
21:00 – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USA)
The Federal Reserve adjusts monetary policy by changing its target range for the federal funds rate, which impacts overnight borrowing rates for banks. Lowering the target, or “easing,” reduces interest rates to stimulate the economy during slow growth, low inflation, or high unemployment. Raising the target, or “tightening,” increases rates to cool an overheating economy, high inflation, or low unemployment. These rate changes affect broader financial conditions, influencing household and business spending and ultimately impacting economic activity, employment, unemployment, and inflation.

At its September 18 meeting, the Committee lowered the federal funds rate target to 4.75%–5.00%, citing inflation progress and risk balance. Future adjustments will depend on data, the outlook, and risks.

Economists anticipate a rate cut of 25 basis points.

15:30 – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)
Canada Employment Change shows a change in the number of officially employed Canadians in the reported month.

The indicator is used when measuring Canada’s labor market. The indicator growth can have a positive effect on CAD quotes.

In September, employment increased by 47,000 (+0.2%), bringing the employment rate down slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 60.7%. Concurrently, the unemployment rate declined by 0.1 percentage points to 6.5%, indicating continued labor market tightening.

Economists forecast an increase of 33,200 employed Canadians, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain 6.5%.

Monday, November 4: American International Group Inc (AIG)
Tuesday, November 5: Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)
Tuesday, November 5: eBay Inc. (EBAY)
Wednesday, November 6: Lyft, Inc. (LYFT)

The upcoming week features significant economic events, including the US presidential election, interest rate decisions from Australia and the UK, and key economic indicators like the ISM Services PMI and employment changes in New Zealand and Canada. These developments, along with major earnings releases from companies like AIG, Devon Energy, eBay, and Lyft, are poised to impact global financial markets and economic outlooks.