The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for September 9-13, 2024

The second week of September is filled with key economic events that will provide valuable insights into market dynamics and central bank policies. Major releases include the UK Claimant Count, US CPI and PPI data, and the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision. These events are expected to have a significant impact on market sentiment and currency movements, making them crucial for investors and analysts alike.

Tuesday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)
Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)
Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: CPI m/m (USD)
Wednesday 17:30 (GMT+3) – USA: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Europe: ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR)
Thursday 16:30 (GMT+3) – USA: PPI m/m (USD)
Thursday 16:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

09:00 am – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)

The Claimant Count indicates how many individuals have started claiming unemployment benefits in a specific month.
A rise in the claimant count signifies a labor market experiencing a downturn and might negatively impact the GDP.

In July 2024, the UK Claimant Count rose to 1.801 million, marking an increase both month-on-month and year-on-year. This rise is influenced by a policy change starting in May 2024, which raises the administrative earnings threshold, potentially affecting 180,000 claimants over six months.

Analysts predict that the upcoming release will show 95,500 unemployment claims.

09:00 am – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures a country’s economic size and health over time, typically quarterly or annually. It can be calculated by totaling the value of goods and services produced, income earned, or spending. Household spending is the largest component, making up about two-thirds of GDP. Growth in GDP signals an expanding economy, but it doesn’t capture all aspects of economic well-being.

The UK’s real GDP grew by 0.6% in Q2 2024, slightly down from 0.7% growth in the previous quarter. Compared to the same quarter last year, GDP increased by 0.9%. Monthly estimates reveal that GDP showed no growth in June 2024, following a 0.4% increase in May and no growth in April.

Analysts predict a 0.2% reading.

15:30 – USA: CPI m/m (USD)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services, reflecting spending patterns of urban consumers and wage earners. It includes indexes like CPI-U for all urban consumers and CPI-W for urban wage earners, covering over 90% of the U.S. population. CPI tracks inflation by comparing current prices to a reference base period.

In July 2024, the CPI-U rose by 0.2%, driven mostly by shelter costs. Over the past year, it increased by 2.9%, the smallest annual rise since March 2021. Energy prices stayed flat, and food saw modest growth.

Economists see a 0.2% increase.

17:30 – USA: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (USD)
The Crude Oil Stocks Change Indicator is published weekly by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). It gauges the volume (barrels) of commercial crude oil held by US companies, influencing global oil prices. Increasing stocks signal reduced oil demand, potentially leading to a decline in oil barrel prices.

In the week ending August 23, 2024, U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million barrels per day, with refineries at 93.3% capacity. Gasoline production fell to 9.6 million barrels per day, while distillate fuel rose to 5.0 million barrels per day. Crude oil imports averaged 6.6 million barrels per day. Commercial crude inventories decreased by 0.8 million barrels, and total petroleum inventories dropped by 3.1 million barrels.

Analysts anticipate a decrease of 4.2 million barrels in Crude oil inventories.

15:30 – Europe: ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR)
The ECB kept interest rates unchanged, focusing on returning inflation to its 2% target. Despite high domestic price pressures, the Council will maintain restrictive conditions and make future rate decisions based on incoming data. Current rates are 4.25% for refinancing, 4.50% for lending, and 3.75% for deposits.

Analysts predict a 25 basis points reduction in the interest rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%.

16:30 – USA: PPI m/m (USD)
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in prices received by producers for goods, services, and construction. The PPI covers a broad range of industries and is used alongside other economic indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures price changes from the buyer’s perspective. Growth in the index can have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

In July 2024, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand increased by 0.1%, with a 0.6% rise in goods prices offset by a 0.2% decline in services prices. Over the past 12 months, the final demand PPI rose by 2.2%. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, the PPI increased by 0.3% in July and 3.3% over the past year.

Economists are projecting a slight increase of 0.2%.

16:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

For the week ending August 24, seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims decreased by 2,000 to 231,000. The previous week’s claims were revised up slightly to 233,000. The 4-week moving average also declined by 4,750 to 231,500, following a minor upward revision of the previous week’s average to 236,250.

Analysts are anticipating 231,000 unemployment claims for the upcoming data release.

Monday, September 9: ORCL (Oracle Corp)

Tuesday, September 10: NKE (Nike Inc.)

Thursday, September 12: ADBE (Adobe Inc.)

Thursday, September 12: KR (Kroker)