Weekly Market Recap: Manufacturing Falls, Services Rise, and Markets Edge Up

During the week of September 23–27, global economic indicators were mixed: the Eurozone and Japan reported declines in manufacturing activity, while the services sector drove US growth despite weak manufacturing. Central banks in Australia and Switzerland made policy decisions, with the Swiss National Bank cutting its rate to 1.0%. The US reported a 3.0% annual GDP growth and modest increases in personal income and expenditures. Commodities like crude oil, gold, and silver saw weekly gains. Major stock indices edged up.

11:00 am- Eurozone: Flash PMI (EUR)
In September, eurozone business activity declined for the first time in seven months, driven by sharp falls in new orders and a deepening manufacturing downturn. Manufacturing output saw its fastest decline in 2024, while services growth was minimal. Confidence hit a 10-month low, leading to further job cuts. Input cost and output price inflation slowed, with the eurozone moving toward stagnation. France and Germany both recorded contractions in activity, while the rest of the eurozone saw modest expansion.
The EURUSD exchange rate decreased by 0.45% compared to the previous day.
11:30 am – UK: Flash PMI (GBP)
September PMI data showed steady economic growth and cooling inflation, signaling a possible ‘soft landing’ for the UK. Both manufacturing and services growth slowed slightly but aligned with a 0.3% quarterly expansion. Business optimism is rising despite concerns over the Autumn Statement. Services inflation hit its lowest since February 2021, bringing the inflation target closer, while hiring slowed amid economic uncertainty, especially in manufacturing.
The GBPUSD currency pair increased by 0.22% from the day before.
16:45 – USA: Flash PMI (USD)
September’s Flash US PMI data showed solid economic growth driven by the services sector, with the Composite Output Index at 54.4. However, optimism is waning, and prices are rising at the fastest rate in six months. Manufacturing remains weak, with output falling for the second month, while input costs in the services sector hit a 12-month high. Employment declined for the second consecutive month, reflecting uncertainty ahead of the Presidential Election. Despite robust growth, inflation pressures suggest the Fed may need to remain cautious on further rate cuts.
The US Dollar Index saw a slight increase of 0.17%.

03:30 am – Japan: Flash Manufacturing PMI (JPY)
Japan’s factory activity slipped in September, with the manufacturing PMI falling to 49.6, marking the third consecutive month of contraction. Softer production and new orders contributed to the decline, while inflation eased. However, the service sector expanded, with the services PMI rising to 53.9, boosting overall business momentum. Manufacturers’ confidence remained subdued due to weak Chinese demand, and the composite PMI stood at 52.5, signaling continued expansion led by services.
The USDJPY exchange rate decreased by 0.27% compared to the previous day.

07:30 am – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)
The Reserve Bank Board has kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%. While inflation has decreased since its 2022 peak, it remains above the target range, with forecasts not expecting a return to target until 2026. Economic growth remains weak, with subdued consumption and persistent labor market strength. The Board is focused on returning inflation to the 2–3% range and remains cautious about economic uncertainties, both domestic and global. The policy will stay restrictive until inflation moves sustainably toward the target.
The exchange rate for AUDUSD declined by 1%.

10:30 am – Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)
On September 26, 2024, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowered its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.0%, effective September 27. This decision reflects the significant decrease in inflationary pressure, partly due to the appreciation of the Swiss franc. Inflation in August was 1.1%, down from 1.4% in May. The SNB forecasts inflation of 1.2% for 2024 and expects moderate GDP growth of around 1%.
The USDCHF currency pair declined by 0.5% from the day before.
15:30 – USA: Final GDP q/q (USD)
In the second quarter of 2024, real GDP grew by 3.0% annually, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. This “third” estimate is consistent with the previous estimate, reflecting upward revisions in private inventory investment and federal spending, offset by lower nonresidential investment and exports. Imports, which subtract from GDP, were also revised upward.
The EURUSD saw a 0.4% increase compared to the previous day.
15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
For the week ending September 21, seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims decreased by 4,000 to 218,000. The 4-week moving average also dropped by 3,500 to 224,750. The insured unemployment rate remained steady at 1.2%, with the number of insured unemployed increasing by 13,000 to 1,834,000.
The US Dollar Index declined by 0.35% compared to the previous trading day.

15:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)
In July, real GDP grew by 0.2%, recovering from stagnation in June. Despite disruptions from wildfires affecting transportation, warehousing, and accommodation services, services-producing industries rose by 0.2%, driven by retail, public sector, and finance growth. Goods-producing industries saw a modest 0.1% increase, with notable contributions from utilities and manufacturing. Overall, 13 of 20 sectors experienced growth during the month.
The USDCAD pair experienced a modest appreciation of 0.38%.
15:30 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)
In August, personal income rose by $50.5 billion (0.2%), while disposable personal income increased by $34.2 billion (0.2%). Personal consumption expenditures grew by $47.2 billion (0.2%). The PCE price index increased 0.1%, with core PCE (excluding food and energy) also up 0.1%. Real DPI and real PCE both rose 0.1%.
The EURUSD exchange rate showed no significant change.

• Crude Oil
  Crude Oil had a 3.9% weekly increase.
• Brent Oil
  Brent rose by 2.8% compared to the previous week
• Gold
  The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 1.38% weekly increase.
• Silver
  XAGUSD increased by 1.53% from the previous week.

• S&P 500 increased by 0.54% Done
• DJIA was up by 0.52%
• NASDAQ 100 increased by 1.00%

• Uxin Limited (UXIN) 228.08%
• Alpha Technology Group Limited (ATGL) 195.36%
• Markforged Holding Corporation (MKFG) 149.22%

• ICG Intchains Group Limited (ICG) -43.99%
• enVVeno Medical Corporation (NVNO) -28.00%
• Theriva Biologics, Inc. (TOVX) -27.46%

Thursday, September 26: COST (Costco Wholesale Corp)

Costco beat earnings expectations with $5.29 per share but missed revenue estimates, posting $79.7 billion instead of the expected $79.9 billion. Same-store sales rose 5.4%, slightly below the forecast of 5.7%. Despite a 0.7% dip in after-hours trading, investors remain optimistic about Costco’s growth, driven by non-food expansions, e-commerce improvements, and a recent membership fee increase. The stock is up 37% this year, though concerns over its high valuation remain.

Cost share saw a weekly decline of 2.36%.

In conclusion, the week presented a mixed economic landscape. Manufacturing sectors in the Eurozone and Japan faced declines, while the US continued to grow, driven mainly by services. Central banks showed divergent policies, with Switzerland cutting rates and Australia holding steady. Commodities like crude oil and precious metals saw gains, and major stock indices edged upward, indicating cautious optimism in global markets despite underlying uncertainties.