The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for September 30 -October 4, 2024

The upcoming week is packed with high-impact economic events, offering valuable insights into global manufacturing activity, labor market conditions, and inflation trends. Notably, China’s Manufacturing PMI will provide a key indicator of the sector’s health, while the US Nonfarm Employment Change report is expected to reveal substantial job growth. Additionally, central bank policies and inflation data from Switzerland and the US will be critical for market participants monitoring currency movements and broader economic stability.

Monday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)
Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)
Wednesday 15:15 am (GMT) +3) – USA: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)
Thursday 09:30 am (GMT+3) – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Thursday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

04:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)
The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly indicator of economic activity in China’s manufacturing sector, published by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). It surveys 3,200 enterprises across various industries and regions, measuring key sub-indicators like output, new orders, and employment. A PMI reading above 50 indicates sector expansion, while below 50 signals contraction.
China’s 2Q24 manufacturing PMI indicated contraction, with large enterprises slowing and smaller ones struggling. Output growth and demand weakened while prices fell. The government is expected to boost policy support, projecting 5.0% GDP growth in 3Q24 and a gradual PMI rise above 50, supported by infrastructure growth and exports.
Analysts project that China’s manufacturing sector will remain in contraction for the fifth consecutive month, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) expected to come in at 49.3, indicating ongoing weakness in industrial activity.

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index that indicates sector expansion if above 50% and contraction if below. The report tracks changes in key indicators like New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the manufacturing sector’s health and the broader economy.
In August 2024, the US Manufacturing PMI was 47.2%, signaling the fifth consecutive month of contraction. New orders, production, and employment declined while prices rose, and exports and imports contracted. Despite weak demand, Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products and Computer & Electronic Products showed growth. Economic uncertainty persists amid cautious investment.
Economists project a reading of 48.6, indicating that the US manufacturing sector will likely remain in contraction territory.
17:00 – USA: JOLTS Job Openings
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey is a monthly report based on employers’ surveys, indicating job vacancies in the US commercial, industrial, and office areas, excluding the farming industry.
Growth in the indicator may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.
In July 2024, US job openings remained steady at 7.7 million, with hires at 5.5 million and total separations rising to 5.4 million. Quits held at 3.3 million, while layoffs and discharges were stable at 1.8 million. Job openings decreased in the healthcare and government sectors but increased in professional services and the federal government. Hires grew in accommodation and food services, while separations rose in healthcare. Revisions to June 2024 data lowered job openings and hires slightly.

Analysts project a modest increase, estimating growth in the range of approximately 50,000.

15:15 am – USA: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)
The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change tracks the monthly change in employment across 19 manufacturing sectors in the US, excluding the agriculture and government sectors.
Employment growth may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.
In August 2024, private sector employment rose by 99,000 jobs, while annual pay increased by 4.8% year-over-year. Job gains occurred mainly in the service sector, with notable increases in construction, financial activities, and education/health services. Employment in medium and large establishments grew, while small businesses saw a slight decline. Wage growth remained stable, with job changers experiencing a 7.3% increase.
Analysts anticipate a modest expansion in private sector activity.

09:30 am – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the changes in the prices of goods and services that reflect the spending habits of private households in Switzerland. It shows how much consumers need to adjust their spending to maintain the same level of consumption despite price fluctuations.
In August 2024, Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable at 107.5 points, with an annual inflation rate of 1.1%. While housing rentals and clothing prices increased, costs for transportation, heating oil, and international holidays declined. Domestic products saw a 2.0% price rise, while imported products dropped by 1.9%. Core inflation, excluding volatile items like energy, was up 1.1%.
Analysts project a modest decrease of 0.2%.
15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

For the week ending September 14, 2024, initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped by 12,000 to 219,000, with the 4-week moving average decreasing to 227,500. The insured unemployment rate remained steady at 1.2%, while the total number of insured unemployed decreased by 14,000 to 1.83 million. In unadjusted data, actual initial claims increased slightly by 6,436 to 184,845.
Analysts project initial jobless claims to come in at 224,500, reflecting expectations of stable labor market conditions.
17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)
The ISM Services PMI measures activity in the US service sector for the reporting month. It is derived from a survey of supply executives in the services sector. Readings above 50 can have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.
In August 2024, the Services PMI registered 51.5%, indicating slight growth in the services sector for the second consecutive month. Business activity and new orders remained in expansion, while employment slowed but still grew. Supplier deliveries improved, with faster delivery times. Prices increased slightly, and inventories grew after two months of contraction. Ten industries reported growth, and the overall services sector has expanded in 18 of the last 20 months.
Analysts project moderate growth in the services sector for the third consecutive month, signaling continued momentum in the sector’s recovery.

15:30 – USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)
The Nonfarm Payrolls report shows the number of new jobs added in the US across all non-agricultural sectors for a given month. An increase in this indicator can positively impact the value of the dollar.
In August 2024, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000, with notable job gains in construction (+34,000) and health care (+31,000). The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with 7.1 million unemployed. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% to $35.21, and the average workweek increased slightly to 34.3 hours.
Analysts project an increase of 267,000 new jobs in the upcoming nonfarm employment report.

Thursday, October 1: <strong> NKE </strong> (NIKE, Inc.)

The upcoming week features several high-impact economic events that are expected to provide crucial insights into global manufacturing performance, labor market conditions, and inflation trends. Notably, China’s Manufacturing PMI will gauge the health of the nation’s industrial sector, while the US Nonfarm Employment Change is forecasted to indicate significant job creation. Additionally, inflation data and monetary policies from Switzerland and the US will play a pivotal role for investors in tracking currency fluctuations and overall economic momentum.