All attention turns to today’s US Nonfarm Payrolls release at 15:30 (GMT+3), a key data point that could significantly influence market sentiment and the dollar’s near-term direction. With recent jobless claims showing signs of labor market softening, investors will be watching closely for confirmation—or contradiction—in the employment figures.
Meanwhile, EURUSD is attempting to regain upward momentum following a pullback from its recent high. The pair remains above key moving averages, with momentum indicators leaning bullish. Combined with the European Central Bank’s recent rate cut and a cautious economic outlook, today’s data could serve as the next major catalyst for price action.
Following its rebound from the January 13 low of 1.01768, marked by a Spinning Bottom candlestick pattern, EURUSD extended gains above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), reaching a high of 1.15724—a 14% increase from trough to peak. However, bullish momentum proved unsustainable, leading to a retracement toward 1.10646 on May 12.
Currently, the pair is attempting another breakout, with 1.15724 emerging as a critical resistance level. A decisive breach could pave the way for further upside. Momentum indicators reinforce a bullish bias—the Momentum Oscillator remains above 100, signaling continued upward pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 50, suggesting growing buying interest.
Additionally, prices are trading above both the 20-period and 50-period EMA, supporting the near-term uptrend.
Key Resistance Levels
Should the buyers maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
1.15724: The initial resistance level is established at 1.15724, which mirrors the daily high marked on April 21.
1.16471: The second price target is set at 1.16471, reflecting the weekly resistance, R3, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
1.17550: The third price objective is observed at 1.17550, corresponding to the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 1.14178 to 1.12094.
1.20922: An additional upside target is projected at 1.20922, mirroring the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 1.14178 to 1.12094.
Key Support Levels
Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
1.12094: The initial support level is seen at 1.12094, corresponding to the daily low marked May 29.
1.10646: The second support level is estimated at 1.10646, representing the swing low marked on May 12.
1.09538: The third support level is identified at 1.09538, reflecting the peak formed on March 18.
1.07099: An additional downside target is 1.07099, mirroring the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement drawn from 1.01768 to 1.15724.
Fundamentals
The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut its three key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2.00%, effective 11 June 2025. The move reflects the ECB’s updated assessment of easing inflation pressures and effective monetary policy transmission. Inflation is now hovering near the 2% medium-term target, with forecasts showing headline inflation averaging 2.0% in both 2025 and 2027 and 1.6% in 2026. Core inflation is projected to ease gradually while wage growth remains elevated but moderating.
Real GDP growth is expected to pick up modestly from 0.9% in 2025 to 1.3% in 2027, supported by higher government investment and resilient household spending. However, trade policy uncertainty continues to pose risks, with alternative scenarios suggesting downside risks to growth and inflation if tensions escalate. The ECB reaffirmed its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and declined to pre-commit to a specific path for future rate moves.
On the other hand, initial jobless claims in the US rose by 8,000 to 247,000 for the week ending May 31. The 4-week moving average increased by 4,500 to 235,000. Insured unemployment declined by 3,000 to 1.904 million for the week ending May 24, while the insured unemployment rate fell to 1.2%. The 4-week average of continuing claims rose to 1.895 million, the highest since November 2021.
All eyes are on today’s upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report, a key data release that will offer critical insight into the underlying strength of the US labor market.
Conclusion
With EURUSD hovering near a key resistance level and broader macro conditions in flux, today’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls release could act as the decisive trigger for the next directional move. A stronger-than-expected print may bolster the dollar and weigh on EURUSD, while signs of labor market softening could reinforce the pair’s bullish momentum.
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