Markets Juggle Mixed Signals as June Kicks Off with Volatility, Data Surprises, and Policy Shifts (June 2-6 Recap)

The first week of June 2025 featured a busy calendar of key economic indicators and corporate earnings that offered fresh insights into global economic conditions. From soft manufacturing data in the US to surprise rate moves in Australia and the eurozone, market participants navigated a mix of contraction signals, policy shifts, and mixed labor market updates. Currency and commodity markets responded accordingly, while major equity indices ended the week in positive territory. Here’s a concise review of the major developments from June 2 to June 6.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Monday, June 2

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

US manufacturing contracted for a third consecutive month in May, with the PMI at 48.5%, slightly below April’s 48.7%. New orders, production, employment, and backlogs all declined. Supplier deliveries slowed while prices increased. Raw material inventories fell, and customer inventories remained too low, suggesting potential future demand. Exports and imports contracted sharply, reflecting weaker global trade. In total, 57% of manufacturing GDP was in contraction, though a few industries, such as petroleum and machinery, reported growth.

EURUSD increased by 0.8% compared to the previous day.

Tuesday, June 3

09:30 am – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.1% in May 2025 from the previous month, reaching 107.6 (base: December 2020 = 100). Compared to May 2024, inflation was slightly negative at -0.1%, indicating a mild year-over-year decline in consumer prices.

USDCHF rose 0.8% from the previous day’s closing price.

17:00 – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

Job openings held steady at 7.4 million in April. Hires remained unchanged at 5.6 million, and total separations were little changed at 5.3 million. Quits stayed at 3.2 million, and layoffs were stable at 1.8 million. Overall, labor market conditions showed minimal movement.

The EURUSD pair declined by 0.6% from the previous session.

Wednesday, June 4

04:30 am – Australia: GDP q/q (AUD)

Australia’s economy grew 1.3% year-on-year and 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, both below expectations. Growth was weighed down by weak consumer demand, falling public spending, and global trade tensions. Inflation eased to 2.4%, leading the Reserve Bank to cut rates to a two-year low of 3.85%, with more cuts possible if the slowdown continues.

AUDUSD gained 0.5% day-over-day.

15:15 – USA: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

US private employers added 37,000 jobs in May, marking the slowest hiring pace since March 2023. While job growth continues to cool after a strong start to the year, wage growth remains steady and strong for both job-stayers and job-changers.

EURUSD posted a 0.37% daily gain.

16:45 – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.75%, citing global trade uncertainty, a softening domestic economy, and mixed inflation signals. The Bank is proceeding cautiously as it monitors the effects of US tariffs and inflation pressures.

USDCAD dropped 0.31% from its prior closing price.

17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

US services sector activity slightly contracted in May, with the Services PMI at 49.9%, the first decline since June 2024. New orders fell, business activity was flat, and prices rose sharply. Employment edged back into expansion while supplier deliveries slowed.

USDJPY weakened by 0.84% relative to the prior session’s closing price.

Thursday, June 5

15:15 – Europe: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)

In June 2025, the ECB cut its three key interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the deposit rate to 2.00%. The decision reflects progress toward the 2% inflation target and improved policy transmission. Updated projections show softer inflation and modest growth, with the ECB maintaining a data-dependent stance amid global uncertainty.

EURUSD edged up by 0.25% from the previous day’s closing price.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

In the week ending May 31, US initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 247,000, while the four-week average increased to 235,000. Insured unemployment fell slightly to 1.9 million, though its four-week average reached the highest level since November 2021.

USDJPY increased by 0.5% over the last day.

Friday, June 6

15:30 – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

In May, Canadian employment was little changed (+8,800), though the unemployment rate edged up to 7.0%. Core-aged women’s employment rose, while it declined for core-aged men. Job gains occurred in sectors like retail and finance, while public administration and hospitality saw losses. Regionally, B.C., Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick added jobs, while Quebec and Manitoba saw declines. Wages rose 3.4% year-over-year.

USDCAD saw a slight daily increase of 0.21%.

15:30 – USD: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

In May, U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 139,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. Job gains were led by health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance, while federal government employment declined.

EURUSD declined 0.43% day-over-day

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   1. Crude oil prices increased by 6.68% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   1. Brent was up 6.31% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 0.63% weekly increase
4. Silver
   1. XAGUSD increased by 9.06% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 increased by 1.70%
2. DJIA was up by 1.38%
3. NASDAQ 100 increased by 2.13%

Top Gainers

1. Lyra Therapeutics, Inc. (LYRA) 392.50%
2. Liminatus Pharma, Inc. (LIMN) 346.04%
3. Namib Minerals (NAMM) 255.62%

Top Losers

1. EPWK Holdings Ltd. (EPWK) -93.35%
2. PTL Limited (PTLE) -79.86%
3. Huachen AI Parking Management Technology Holding Co., Ltd (HCAI) -78.81%

Company Earnings (June 2 – 6)

Thursday, June 5: Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)

Thursday, June 5: Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)

Friday, June 6: ABM Industries Incorporated (ABM)

Broadcom reported Q2 earnings with EPS of $1.58, beating estimates by $0.01. Revenue rose 20.2% year-over-year to $15 billion, slightly above expectations. Earnings are projected to grow 18.6% next year.

AVGO shares increased by 2.01% compared to the previous week.

On June 5, 2025, Lululemon reported earnings with EPS of $2.60, matching estimates. Revenue rose 7.3% year-over-year to $2.37 billion, slightly beating forecasts. Earnings are expected to grow 7.1% next year.

LULU shares decreased by 16.23% compared to the previous week’s closing price.

ABM Industries reported Q2 earnings of $0.86 per share, missing estimates by $0.01, while revenue rose to $2.11 billion, beating expectations.

ABM stock registered an 11.47% weekly loss.

Conclusion

The first week of June 2025 delivered a mix of caution and optimism across global markets. While economic data revealed persistent headwinds in manufacturing and slowing job growth in key regions, central banks responded with measured policy actions. Market sentiment remained resilient, with equities rising and commodities posting strong gains. As global uncertainty continues to shape the outlook, investors will stay focused on incoming data and central bank guidance in the weeks ahead.