The week ahead – All Eyes on FOMC & Non-Farm Payrolls

Key Upcoming Events: 

• US ISM Services PMI 17:00 (GMT+3) Wednesday 3^rd July
• US FOMC Minutes 21:00 (GMT+3) Wednesday 3^rd July
• US Non-Farm Payrolls 15:30 (GMT+3) Friday 5^th July

US Economic Calendar: In the holiday-shortened week ahead with the July 4th US bank holiday on Thursday, key data releases include ISM PMI data from Manufacturing and Services, and FOMC minutes. Emphasis during the week will be on employment data, with JOLTS on Tuesday and ADP’s report on Wednesday, leading up to Friday’s crucial NFP. June’s jobs report is expected to show 185,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate steady at 4% and wages up 0.3% month-on-month.

UK Election: The UK heads to the polls on July 4th, coinciding with US Independence Day. Pre-election jitters may impact the pound and FTSE Index. Current polls suggest a potential landslide victory for Labor, but surprises are possible. Market participants should be cautious of volatility in the pound and FTSE Index around election results.

Eurozone Inflation Focus: The Eurozone inflation rate flash for June is due, with expectations of a slight drop to 2.5% headline inflation and 2.8% core inflation. May saw core inflation at 2.9% and headline at 2.6%. Tuesday’s CPI readings and the three-day ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal, featuring ECB President Lagarde and Fed Chair Powell, will be key focuses.

RBA Meeting Minutes: At its June Board Meeting, the RBA kept the official cash rate on hold. The Board noted that high rates are working to rebalance demand and supply, with services price inflation remaining a key uncertainty. Following last week’s hotter-than-expected May inflation data, the minutes will be scrutinized for any hints of a rate hike in August.

This week the markets will be closely following economic data & earnings reports such as:

Monday:

• DE Inflation Rate Prel JUN        
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI JUN

Tuesday:

• AU RBA Meeting Minutes
• EU Inflation Rate Flash JUN
• EU Unemployment Rate MAY  
• US Fed Chair Powell Speech
• US JOLTs Job Openings MAY    
• Earnings Reports:
  • MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.
  • Simulations Plus, Inc.
  • Radius Recycling, Inc.

Wednesday:

• US ADP Employment Change JUN
• US ISM Services PMI JUN         
• US FOMC Minutes
• Earnings Reports:
  • Constellation Brands, Inc.

Thursday:

• US Bank Holiday – US Independence Day
• GB UK General Election

Friday:

• EU Retail Sales MAY
• CA Unemployment Rate JUN
• US Non-Farm Payrolls JUN
• Earnings Reports:
  • KalVista Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

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