The week ahead – ECB Rate Decision & US Non-Farm Payrolls

Key Upcoming Events:

• US ISM Services PMI 17:00 (GMT+3) Wednesday 5^th June
• EU Interest Rate Decision 15:15 (GMT+3) Thursday 6^th June
• US Non-Farm Payrolls 15:30 (GMT+3) Friday 7^th June

US Jobs Report: The main event in the US will be the May job market report. Nonfarm payrolls are anticipated to have grown by 190k, a slight increase from April, with the unemployment rate expected to remain steady at 3.9%. ISM data on Monday and Wednesday will also be closely watched.

ECB Interest Rate Decision: The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. The focus will be on future rate cuts, with some members advocating multiple reductions. President Lagarde’s press conference will be crucial, while Eurozone PMI and German industrial data will also be monitored.

BoC Rate Decision: With inflation having reached a three-year low, the Bank of Canada may start its rate-cutting cycle. Chances of an imminent rate cut increased following last week’s weaker-than-expected GDP data. With a rate cut not considered a certainty, such a move by the BoC will likely trigger significant volatility for the USD/CAD pair.

Asia’s Economic Data: Japan will release wage growth data, potentially supporting the yen if pay growth increases. China will report Caixin PMIs, crucial for monitoring the recovery in Chinese and Hong Kong stocks. The Australian dollar will react to GDP data and Chinese economic reports.

This week the markets will be closely following economic data & earnings reports such as:

Monday:

• EU HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final MAY
• GB S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final MAY 
• US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final MAY
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI MAY            

Tuesday:

• DE Unemployment Rate MAY
• US JOLTs Job Openings APR    
• Earnings Reports:
  • CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.
  • Ferguson plc
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company

Wednesday:

• AU GDP Growth Rate Q1          
• EU HCOB Services PMI Final MAY
• GB S&P Global Services PMI Final MAY
• CA BoC Interest Rate Decision
• US S&P Global Composite PMI Final MAY
• US ISM Services PMI MAY
• Earnings Reports:
  • Lululemon Athletica Inc.
  • Dollar Tree, Inc.
  • Brown-Forman Corporation

Thursday:

• EU Retail Sales APR     
• EU ECB Interest Rate Decision              

Friday:

• DE Industrial Production APR
• EU GDP Growth Rate 3rd Est Q1
• CA Unemployment Rate MAY  
• US Non-Farm Payrolls MAY

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