Inflation Heats Up, Oil Surges and Stocks Slide Despite Strong Earnings (October 12 – 16, 2026, Recap)

Overview

Global financial markets experienced a volatile week as investors reacted to major economic reports, corporate earnings, and ongoing economic uncertainty. Key developments included rising US inflation, strong retail sales, mixed employment figures, and tightening oil supplies. Commodity markets saw significant price movements, while major US stock indices delivered mixed results. Meanwhile, leading US banks and Johnson & Johnson reported generally strong third-quarter earnings, although concerns about inflation, interest rates, and future economic growth continued to influence investor sentiment.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Wednesday, October 14

15:30 – USA: CPI m/m (USD)

US consumer prices rose 0.6% in September 2026, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August. The biggest reason for the increase was gasoline prices, which jumped 9.1%. Overall energy costs rose 5.2%, while housing costs increased slightly by 0.4%. Food prices remained mostly stable, with grocery prices falling slightly and restaurant prices rising. Prices also increased for used cars, clothing, medical care, and airline tickets. Over the past year, energy prices rose 20.4%, while food prices increased 2.5%. Overall, inflation is picking up again, mainly because of higher energy costs, putting additional pressure on household budgets.

EUR/USD gained 0.37% on the day.

Thursday, October 15

03:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

Australia’s job market weakened in September 2026, with employment falling by 39,300 to 14.78 million people. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.7%, while the number of unemployed people increased by 8,900 to 732,000. Full-time employment rose by 34,400, but part-time jobs dropped by 73,700. The participation rate, which measures the share of people working or looking for work, fell to 66.8%. Meanwhile, the underemployment rate increased slightly to 6.3%, indicating more workers wanted additional hours. Overall, the figures suggest Australia’s labor market is losing some momentum, although longer-term trends remain relatively stable.

AUD/USD fell 0.73% on the day.

09:00 am – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)

The UK economy grew by 0.7% in the three months to August 2026, showing stronger growth than the previous three-month periods. The services sector led the expansion, growing by 0.9%, while production fell by 0.2% and construction declined by 1.0%. However, monthly economic growth slowed to just 0.1% in August, down from 0.4% in both July and June. August’s modest growth was mainly supported by a 0.8% increase in production, while services remained unchanged and construction fell by 0.2%. Overall, the UK economy continued to expand, but the slowdown in August suggests that growth remains uneven across sectors.

GBP/USD rose 0.62% on the day.

15:30 – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

US producer prices rose sharply by 1.3% in September 2026, up from 0.5% in August, marking the largest monthly increase since March 2022. Over the past year, prices increased by 6.3%, the fastest annual rise since December 2022. The increase was driven by higher costs for goods, which jumped 2.6%, while services prices rose 0.8%. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, prices increased by 0.5% during the month and 5.0% over the year. Overall, the figures suggest growing inflation pressures for businesses, which could eventually lead to higher prices for consumers.

EUR/USD advanced 0.56% during the session.

15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

US retail sales rose by 0.8% in September 2026, reaching $745.0 billion, indicating continued strength in consumer spending. Compared with September 2025, sales increased by 6.3%, showing solid growth over the past year. Retail sales for the July-to-September period were also 5.5% higher than during the same period last year. Meanwhile, August’s monthly sales growth was revised upward from 1.1% to 1.3%, suggesting stronger spending than initially reported. Overall, the figures indicate that American consumers continue to spend despite higher prices, helping support economic growth.

USD/JPY fell 0.20% on the day.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

New applications for unemployment benefits in the US rose slightly to 199,000 in the week ending October 10, 2026, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week. The four-week average also edged up to 198,500, suggesting that layoffs remain relatively stable. Meanwhile, the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits fell by 4,000 to 1.71 million in the week ending October 3. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.1%. Overall, the figures suggest that the US labor market remains resilient, with relatively few workers filing for unemployment benefits and no significant signs of rising layoffs.

USD/CHF dropped 0.98% on the day.

19:00 – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

US crude oil inventories fell sharply by 8.6 million barrels to 415.6 million barrels in the week ending October 9, 2026, leaving supplies 3% below the five-year average. Total petroleum inventories also dropped by 13.4 million barrels. Meanwhile, oil refineries increased their activity, processing 16.6 million barrels per day, while crude oil imports declined to 6.0 million barrels per day. Gasoline inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels, but distillate supplies, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.5 million barrels. Overall, the report suggests tightening US oil supplies, which could support higher crude oil prices. However, gasoline demand remained slightly weaker than a year earlier.

USD/CAD fell 0.37% on the day.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil

1. Crude oil prices rose 8.05% over the past week

2. Brent Oil

1. Brent was up 5.18% compared to the previous week

3. Gold

1. Gold (XAU/USD) ended the week on Friday with a loss of 0.70%

4. Silver

1. XAG/USD fell by 6.33% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 fell 2.00%

2. DJIA was up 0.53%

3. NASDAQ 100 declined by 5.58%

Top Gainers

1. Alaunos Therapeutics, Inc. (TCRT) 234.69%

2. JBDI Holdings Limited (JBDI) 159.00%

3. Exascale Labs Holdings Inc. (XLAB) 141.30%

Top Losers

1. WF Holding Limited (WFF) -99.13%

2. Republic Power Group Limited (RPGL) -82.78%

3. CL Workshop Group Limited (NWGL) -80.00%

Company Earnings (October 12-16)

Tuesday, October 13: JPM (JPMorgan Chase & Co.)

Tuesday, October 13: JNJ (Johnson & Johnson)

Tuesday, October 13: WFC (Wells Fargo & Company)

Tuesday, October 13: C (Citigroup Inc.)

Wednesday, October 14: BAC (Bank of America Corporation)

Wednesday, October 14: MS (Morgan Stanley)

JPMorgan Chase reported strong third-quarter results, earning $15.3 billion in profit, with earnings per share of $5.57 and revenue rising 8% from a year earlier. Growth was supported by strong trading activity, higher customer deposits, and increased investment-management fees. Consumer spending rose 10%, while investment banking and wealth management also performed well. Looking ahead, JPMorgan expects interest income to remain strong but warned about economic uncertainty, high interest rates, and potential pressure on consumers. The bank also reduced share buybacks to focus on business investments. Overall, the results showed solid performance, although management remains cautious about future economic risks.

JPM shares rose 2.02% over the past week.

Johnson & Johnson reported a 6% increase in third-quarter sales to $25.4 billion, beating expectations, driven by strong demand for its medicines. The company raised its full-year sales and earnings forecasts, reflecting confidence in continued growth. However, its medical technology business grew more slowly than expected, while reported profits fell sharply to $210 million due to legal and acquisition-related costs. Overall, the results showed strong pharmaceutical performance, although weaker medical technology sales and rising expenses remain concerns.

JNJ shares fell 2.25% over the past week.

Wells Fargo reported strong third-quarter results, with earnings per share rising 13% to $1.87 and revenue increasing 2%. Loans and deposits both grew 11%, while wealth management and investment banking performed well. The bank also reported fewer credit losses and increased shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends. However, trading revenue remained weaker than expected, while management warned about inflation, high interest rates, and commercial real estate risks. Overall, the results showed solid financial performance despite economic uncertainties.

WFC shares rose 0.38% over the past week.

Citigroup reported strong third-quarter results, with revenue rising 8% to $23.8 billion and net income increasing 17% to $5.2 billion. Growth was driven by strong performance in wealth management, financial services, and trading. The bank also returned over $4 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. However, its consumer credit card business remained weak, while a potential $9 billion loss related to Banamex could affect future earnings. Overall, Citi delivered solid results despite ongoing challenges.

C shares declined 4.15% over the past week.

Bank of America reported solid third-quarter results, earning approximately $8.1 billion before a $1.2 billion regulatory settlement charge. Loans continued to grow, deposits exceeded $2 trillion, and consumer spending increased 5%. The bank also reported improved credit quality and returned $8.3 billion to shareholders. However, trading and investment-banking revenues weakened, partly due to higher interest rates. Overall, the results showed strong core banking performance despite regulatory costs and weaker financial market activity.

BAC shares fell 5.69% over the past week.

Morgan Stanley reported strong third-quarter results, with revenue reaching $20.3 billion and earnings per share of $3.03. Its wealth management business achieved record revenue of $9.1 billion, supported by strong client investment inflows. Investment banking and trading also performed well, with equities revenue rising 41%. The bank maintained a strong financial position, providing flexibility for future growth. However, management warned that higher interest rates, rising energy prices, and geopolitical tensions could affect market activity. Overall, Morgan Stanley delivered strong results despite ongoing economic uncertainty.

MS shares fell 4.97% over the past week.

Conclusion

Overall, the week of October 12–16, 2026, highlighted a mixed economic outlook and continued market uncertainty. Rising US inflation and energy prices raised concerns about future interest rates, while strong consumer spending and corporate earnings showed economic resilience. Stock markets experienced volatility, with technology shares facing significant pressure, while oil prices climbed sharply. Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor inflation, central bank policies, economic growth, and corporate performance for clearer signs of market direction.