Bitcoin (BTCUSD) H4 Forecast: Corrective Rally Nears Completion Before Another Bearish Leg

Market Overview

Bitcoin remains under bearish pressure despite a recent corrective rebound from the June low. Price is currently trading inside a corrective structure after completing the initial impulsive decline.

The latest recovery appears to be forming a Wave (iv) correction, which is approaching a significant resistance zone. Unless buyers manage to invalidate the bearish structure, Bitcoin is expected to resume its downward movement and complete Wave (v).

Elliott Wave Analysis

The current price action suggests that Bitcoin has already completed Waves (i), (ii), and (iii) of the current bearish sequence.

Price is now developing Wave (iv), a corrective rally that is testing an important resistance area highlighted on the chart.

Wave (iv) is expected to remain below the previous swing high, maintaining the integrity of the bearish Elliott Wave structure.

If sellers regain control around this resistance, Wave (v) could begin and extend toward the next major support zone.

Key Technical Levels

Resistance

• Wave (iv) resistance zone
• Fibonacci retracement resistance

Support

• Wave (v) projected target
• Fibonacci 423.6 extension zone

A sustained breakout above the Wave (iv) resistance would weaken the current bearish scenario and suggest a deeper corrective recovery.

AO Momentum Analysis

The Awesome Oscillator continues to show improving bullish momentum following the previous bearish convergence.

However, the indicator has yet to produce a confirmed bearish divergence.

As long as divergence has not formed, short-term upside movement remains possible. Traders should monitor the resistance area closely for momentum exhaustion before confirming the next bearish impulse.

Trading Outlook

The overall trend remains bearish despite the ongoing recovery.

The preferred scenario is for Bitcoin to complete Wave (iv) near resistance before initiating Wave (v), targeting the lower Fibonacci extension area shown on the chart.

Confirmation from bearish price action together with momentum divergence would strengthen the probability of the next downward move.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Always apply proper risk management before making any trading decisions.