Calm After the Storm: Oil Settles at $65 as Ceasefire Cools Geopolitical Risk

Crude oil markets have stabilized following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, easing fears of a broader regional conflict. Prices have settled around $65 per barrel—well below worst-case projections—as markets shift their focus from geopolitical risk to underlying demand and supply dynamics. With no major energy infrastructure damage reported, traders are now recalibrating expectations around global economic growth, monetary policy, and OPEC+ output.

Ceasefire Calms Oil Markets: Prices Settle Around $65 After Trump’s Announcement

Oil prices are expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, easing fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East.

Analysts had outlined three potential scenarios based on how tensions might unfold. In the worst case, oil prices could have surged above $130 if the conflict had escalated dramatically. A more moderate outcome would have kept prices between $80 and $90. With the ceasefire now in place, the most optimistic scenario is playing out, pointing to lower and more stable prices.

This is good news for oil-importing countries, as cheaper oil can help reduce trade deficits and support economic growth.

Trump Urges Energy Boost

Following US airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, President Donald Trump called on energy producers to boost domestic drilling to help maintain stability. The strikes raised concerns about rising tensions in the Middle East, though the situation appeared to calm shortly afterward. Analysts note that any disruption in regional energy supply could have broader economic implications.

Oil Slides as Trump Brokers Israel-Iran Ceasefire

Crude oil prices fell sharply after a tentative ceasefire was announced between Israel and Iran, with both sides reportedly agreeing under US President Donald Trump’s mediation. The de-escalation eased market fears, especially as no energy infrastructure was targeted during the conflict. Analysts say attention may now return to underlying oil fundamentals, including concerns over weak demand and potential oversupply.

Dollar Dips as Ceasefire Boosts Risk Appetite, Fed Cut Bets Grow

The US dollar weakened as risk sentiment improved following President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, easing fears of wider conflict. Risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars rose, while the yen, euro, and pound gained modestly against the greenback. Additional pressure on the dollar came from growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with investors eyeing upcoming remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for further signals.

Technical Analysis

After reaching a recent high of $76.64 on June 23, crude oil has declined over 16% (from peak to trough), driven by easing geopolitical tensions and renewed optimism surrounding the Israel-Iran ceasefire. The pullback was initially flagged by a bearish Harami candlestick formation, reflecting waning bullish momentum.

The subsequent drop, marked by a decisive bearish candle, saw prices close below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and briefly breach the 50-period EMA intraday—indicating increasing downside pressure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below the neutral 50 level, signaling persistent selling, while the Momentum Oscillator remains above 100, suggesting underlying strength is not fully exhausted.

Notably, a bearish crossover between the 20- and 50-period EMAs has yet to occur, implying the trend remains in flux.

Should buying interest re-emerge, resistance is located at $69.02, followed by $72.23, and the recent high at $76.64. Until then, the near-term bias remains cautiously bearish, with support levels to watch at $63.94, $59.35, and $54.67.

Conclusion

With geopolitical tensions de-escalating and oil prices stabilizing near $65, markets appear to be shifting back to a fundamentals-driven narrative. While the risk of further conflict has diminished for now, sentiment remains fragile, with demand-side concerns, monetary policy shifts, and OPEC+ supply strategies likely to guide the next phase of price action. Technically, the bias remains cautiously bearish until key resistance levels are reclaimed, and traders will be watching closely for any signs of renewed momentum or structural trend shifts.