A series of high-impact economic events is expected to influence major financial markets, including crude oil, currencies, and equities. Key data releases such as UK CPI, U.S. CPI, and U.S. crude oil inventories are likely to shape market sentiment, with traders closely monitoring these reports for potential price movements. In the oil market, heightened volatility follows a sharp increase in supertanker rates driven by U.S. sanctions on Russia, adding upward pressure on crude prices. Against this backdrop, critical technical levels in crude oil will play a significant role in guiding trading strategies.
High Impact Economic Events
Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)
Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: CPI m/m (USD)
Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)
Thursday 02:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)
Thursday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)
Chart Analysis
Crude has broken out of a seventeen-week consolidation, setting the stage for further price gains underpinned by key technical indicators and momentum oscillators. Notably, the trough at 68.30 did not breach the previous low, and prices then surpassed the peak at 70.89, signaling a bullish failure swing and the start of a new uptrend.
Since then, the commodity has reached both the 161.8% and 261.8% Fibonacci Extension levels, with the 423.6% target now in focus. Upward momentum is bolstered by a “Golden Cross” double crossover, where the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has crossed above the 50-period EMA.
Meanwhile, the Momentum oscillator remains above the 100 threshold, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 50—both suggesting that positive momentum will likely persist in the near term.

Key Resistance Levels
If buyers maintain control of the market, traders may shift their focus to the following four potential resistance levels:
77.73: The first level of resistance is identified at 77.73, which aligns with the daily high marked on January 13.
79.27: The second price target is determined at 79.27, corresponding to the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing high, 70.89, to the swing low, 68.30.
82.22: The third price target is established at 82.22, representing the weekly resistance, R3, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
87.43: An additional price objective is estimated at 87.43, mirroring a peak from the weekly timeframe.
Key Support Levels
If sellers take control of the market, traders may focus on the following four key support levels:
74.58: The initial support level is seen at 74.58, representing the peak recorded on January 8.
72.90: The second support level is positioned at 72.90, aligning with the weekly support, S1, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
70.89: The third downside target is noted at 70.89, corresponding to the high point marked on December 13.
68.30: An additional downside target is determined at 68.30, reflecting the swing low from December 20.
Fundamentals
Oil-freight derivatives trading soared to its highest level in over a decade as U.S. sanctions on Russia drove supertanker rates sharply higher, according to a report by Bloomberg. Nearly 30,000 crude tanker forward freight agreements (FFAs) were traded in a week, the most since 2014, reflecting increased hedging and speculative activity. Daily earnings for 2 million-barrel supertankers saw their largest two-day surge in 19 months, with Middle East-to-China route earnings hitting nearly $50,000 per day. As sanctions tighten supply chains, Asian refiners scramble to secure barrels, pushing tanker rates up by over 40% since Friday. The sudden surge in rates is also fueling speculative sentiment in the oil market, adding further upward pressure on crude prices. Meanwhile, traders are closely watching the Crude Oil Inventories report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, due later today, for further insights into supply dynamics.
Conclusion
Crude oil’s breakout from a prolonged consolidation, coupled with rising freight rates and sanctions on Russian shipping, adds upward pressure on prices. As market participants closely monitor data releases such as UK CPI, U.S. CPI, and crude oil inventories, the focus remains on critical support and resistance levels to navigate potential price swings. The combination of fundamentals and technical momentum suggests that market conditions will remain dynamic, offering both risks and opportunities.