GBPUSD Under Pressure Amid Key PMI Data

The GBPUSD pair has faced notable volatility, declining sharply from its September 26 peak of 1.34332. Technical indicators, including the “Death Cross” double crossover and bearish signals from the RSI and Momentum Oscillator, underline the currency pair’s current downward trajectory. Traders are closely watching key support and resistance levels for potential inflection points.
Fundamentally, the pair remains influenced by speculation on US policy shifts under President-elect Trump and cautious market expectations for Bank of England rate adjustments. Adding to the market focus, today’s anticipated release of the UK’s flash manufacturing and services PMI for November could provide fresh insights into economic activity, potentially impacting short-term sentiment for the pound. These figures will be pivotal in shaping expectations around growth momentum and monetary policy adjustments moving forward.

Friday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)
Friday 10:15 am (GMT+2) – Europe: French Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
Friday 10:15 am (GMT+2) – Europe: French Flash Services PMI (EUR)
Friday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Europe: German Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
Friday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Europe: German Flash Services PMI (EUR)
Friday 11:30 am (GMT+2) – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)
Friday 11:30 am (GMT+2) – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: Retail Sales m/m (CAD)
Friday 16:45 (GMT+2) – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Friday 16:45 (GMT+2) – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

After reaching a peak of 1.34332 on September 26, the Pound Sterling (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD) experienced a sharp decline, influenced by various technical indicators.
Specifically, the GBPUSD exchange rate fell below both the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), leading to the formation of a “Death Cross” double crossover reversal that intensified the downward momentum.
Furthermore, the Momentum Oscillator and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) support the downward trend of the currency pair. The Momentum Oscillator is currently below the 100 threshold, and the RSI has entered the oversold territory, indicating strong bearish momentum.
If downward momentum continues, the first price target is anticipated to be 1.25212. Conversely, if bullish sentiment emerges, traders may focus on the resistance level at 1.27136.

If buyers take control of the market, traders may shift their focus to the following four potential resistance levels:
1.27126: The first level of resistance is determined at 1.27136, which reflects a peak marked on November 21.
1.28331: The second resistance level is observed at 1.28331, which aligns with the trough from November 6.
1.30420: The third price target is established at 1.30420, which corresponds to the peak marked October 30.
1.31582: An additional price objective is projected at 1.31582, representing the weekly resistance, R3, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.

If sellers maintain control of the market, traders may focus on the following four key support levels:
1.22512: The initial support level is estimated at 1.22512, representing the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low, 1.25947, to the swing high, 1.27136.
1.23815: The second support level is determined at 1.23815, aligning with the weekly support, S2, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
1.22988: The third downside target is observed at 1.22988, corresponding to a weekly trough.
1.22099: An additional downside target is noted at 1.22099, reflecting the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low, 1.25947, to the swing high, 1.27136.

The British pound edged lower against the dollar, trading down 0.2% at $1.25679, as the US currency gained momentum amid speculation about President-elect Donald Trump’s Treasury Secretary choice and its potential impact on growth, trade, and tax policies.
While the pound rose 1.3% against the euro, supported by concerns over eurozone growth and potential tariff pressures, it has fallen nearly 2.6% against the dollar this month and turned negative for the year. UK inflation data showing an October increase briefly boosted sterling but reinforced expectations that the Bank of England will proceed cautiously with rate cuts.
Markets anticipate a 68-basis-point rate reduction by late 2025, though no changes are expected at the December 19 meeting. A February rate cut remains possible if inflation pressures continue to build.
Attention now turns to November’s business activity surveys, with Britain’s PMI expected to ease slightly to 51.8, still indicating growth and maintaining the UK’s competitive position among global economies.

The GBPUSD pair remains under pressure, with technical and fundamental factors aligning to signal continued volatility. Key support and resistance levels provide a roadmap for traders navigating the currency pair’s trajectory, while today’s anticipated release of the UK’s flash manufacturing and services PMI will offer critical insights into economic conditions and near-term sentiment. As markets digest these developments alongside broader monetary policy expectations, the outlook for GBPUSD will hinge on whether bearish momentum persists or a recovery gains traction.