Jobs on Edge: Openings Drop, Hiring Slows, Eyes on Payrolls

Markets are bracing for Friday’s US jobs report as a string of labor market indicators paints a mixed picture. Job openings, hiring, and jobless claims are all showing signs of strain, with trade tensions, cautious business sentiment, and federal cuts adding pressure. Meanwhile, EURUSD continues its upward climb, backed by strong momentum—though technical signals suggest a potential pause ahead. With macro uncertainty rising, Friday’s data could play a key role in shaping sentiment going forward.

US Job Openings Slide as Trade Tensions Weigh on Outlook

US job openings declined to 7.2 million in March, the lowest since September, as trade tensions under President Trump cast a shadow over the economic outlook. While hiring held steady and layoffs dropped to their lowest level since June, openings were down from 7.5 million in February and 8.1 million a year earlier. Despite the drop, quits edged higher, suggesting worker confidence and the labor market remains historically strong. Economists warn, however, that further layoffs may be on the horizon as tariffs, federal job cuts, and economic uncertainty continue to build.

Hiring Hits the Brakes: US Companies Add Just 62,000 Jobs in April

Private-sector hiring in the US rose by only 62,000 in April, marking the slowest monthly gain since July 2024, according to ADP data. Key sectors like education, health services, and professional business services saw job losses, reflecting growing caution among employers. Wage growth was mixed, with job switchers earning 6.9% more, while those staying put saw a 4.5% increase. Tariff-related uncertainty and broader economic concerns are clouding the labor outlook ahead of Friday’s official jobs report.

April Jobs Report Preview: Slower Hiring, Bigger Questions for the Fed

US job growth is expected to slow sharply in April, with economists forecasting just 130,000 new nonfarm payrolls, down from March’s strong 228,000 gain. While the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.2%, concerns are mounting over weakening consumer confidence, softening business demand, and tariff-related uncertainty. Analysts warn the jobs figure could fall short of expectations, citing cautious hiring sentiment from manufacturers. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve faces a tough choice between supporting growth and containing inflation, with fewer rate cuts now likely in 2025.

Jobless Claims Jump to 241K, Hinting at Labor Market Strain Ahead of Payrolls Report

US jobless claims climbed to 241,000 last week, the highest since February, largely due to a temporary increase in filings from New York, where school-related employment patterns affected totals. While economists had expected fewer claims, recurring seasonal employment shifts—like school staff applying for benefits during spring recess—likely drove the surge. More importantly, continuing claims rose to 1.92 million, suggesting it’s taking longer for job seekers to find employment. Although some of the increase stems from predictable seasonal trends, the rise in ongoing claims could point to a labor market losing some momentum. Attention now shifts to Friday’s employment report for clearer direction.

EURUSD Eyes Higher Ground, but Momentum Signals Caution

EURUSD has advanced over 11% since establishing a low at 1.01768 on January 13, driven by a constructive blend of technical confirmation and macroeconomic tailwinds.

The initial shift in market structure was identified through a failure swing pattern, as a higher low at 1.02760 preceded a breakout above 1.04418—signaling the onset of a bullish trend. The subsequent formation of a “Golden Cross,” where the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed above the 50-period EMA, added further technical validation.

Momentum indicators continue to support the bullish case. The Momentum Oscillator remains anchored above the 100 threshold, underscoring persistent upward pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds firmly above the 50 level, indicative of sustained buying interest.

However, a developing bearish divergence between the RSI and recent price action warrants caution. While this does not yet invalidate the broader uptrend, it may point to a potential loss of short-term momentum.

If bullish momentum resumes, the next key resistance levels to monitor lie at 1.14133, 1.15724, and 1.17853. These zones represent potential upside targets should the rally extend.

On the downside, initial support is seen at 1.11446, followed by 1.09538 and 1.05279. A break below these levels would shift the near-term bias and raise the risk of a deeper retracement.

Conclusion

In summary, while the labor market remains historically strong, fresh data is revealing signs of cooling under the weight of trade tensions, cautious hiring, and federal job cuts. Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report could be a turning point—either reinforcing market resilience or signaling deeper challenges ahead. Meanwhile, EURUSD continues its bullish run, but emerging technical signals urge caution. With sentiment on edge, the next wave of data will be critical in shaping market direction.