XAUUSD Daily Analysis: Wave (iv) Pullback May Complete Before Final Wave (v) Decline 

Introduction 

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to trade within a well-defined bearish corrective structure after completing a larger ABC correction. The current price action suggests that the market is developing Wave (iv) of a five-wave bearish impulse before initiating the final Wave (v) toward a major Fibonacci support zone. 

Although buying momentum has improved in the short term, the broader trend remains bearish while price stays below the descending resistance trendline. 

Wave (iv) Pullback Testing Key Resistance 

Following the completion of Wave (iii), Gold has staged a corrective rally identified as Wave (iv). 

This rebound has reached an important confluence area where several technical factors meet: 

• Descending trendline resistance.  

• Fibonacci 161.8% projection.  

• Previous swing resistance.  

• Potential supply zone.  

This resistance cluster is expected to limit further upside. As long as price remains below this zone, the current recovery is viewed as a temporary pullback rather than the beginning of a new bullish trend. 

Wave (v) Expected to Complete Larger Correction 

Once Wave (iv) is completed, Gold is expected to begin Wave (v), extending the bearish impulse toward the highlighted green target area. 

The projected downside target aligns with: 

• Fibonacci 261.8% extension.  

• Major historical support zone.  

• Completion of the five-wave bearish impulse.  

• Completion of the larger Wave (C) corrective structure.  

This technical confluence increases the probability that sellers will regain control once the current rebound loses momentum. 

Awesome Oscillator Indicates Recovery but Bearish Risk Remains 

The Awesome Oscillator (AO) has continued to recover after previously forming a bullish convergence, indicating that bearish momentum has weakened. 

However, the oscillator remains near the zero line and has yet to confirm a strong bullish breakout. Traders should monitor for fresh bearish momentum or divergence near the resistance area, as this would strengthen the probability that Wave (v) is beginning. 

Trading Outlook 

The preferred scenario is for Gold to complete Wave (iv) near the highlighted resistance zone before resuming its broader bearish trend. 

Traders should monitor bearish reversal candlestick patterns such as: 

• Bearish Engulfing  

• Shooting Star  

• Evening Star  

Additional confirmation from the Awesome Oscillator turning lower would provide stronger evidence that the final Wave (v) decline has started. 

A sustained breakout above the descending trendline and resistance zone would invalidate the current bearish wave count and suggest that a larger bullish correction is developing instead. 

Conclusion 

XAUUSD remains technically bearish despite the ongoing recovery. The current advance is viewed as Wave (iv) within a larger five-wave decline. Unless buyers successfully break above the descending resistance, the probability remains high that Gold will resume its downward movement in Wave (v) toward the major Fibonacci support zone, completing the broader corrective structure.