Mohd Zulkifli Mohd Din

24 September 2026

ABC Corrective Structure Remains the Main Focus

The XAUUSD Daily chart shows that price may be developing an A-B-C corrective structure following the decline from the recent high around the 4,700 area.

Based on the Elliott Wave count shown on the chart, Wave A appears to have formed the initial decline, while price is now attempting to develop Wave B, representing a temporary recovery before a potential continuation lower through Wave C.

Current price is trading around the 4,286 area, while the right side of the chart shows an attempt to establish a recovery from the Wave A support region.

This structure is important because the current rebound does not necessarily indicate the beginning of a new bullish trend. Instead, it may represent a corrective recovery within the larger bearish ABC structure.

The broader roadmap remains:

Wave A ↓ → Wave B ↑ → Wave C ↓

This type of structure is consistent with the corrective Elliott Wave framework used to analyse the current XAUUSD setup.

Wave B May Target the Pullback Zone

The main zone highlighted on the chart is around 4,450–4,500, which represents the potential target area for Wave B.

This region is important because it coincides with a previous reaction area and the Fibonacci structure marked on the chart.

If XAUUSD manages to continue recovering from the current support area, the following levels become important:

• 4,400 — initial resistance.

• 4,450–4,500 — major potential Wave B target zone.

• 4,520–4,560 — higher resistance area if bullish momentum becomes stronger.

A move toward these levels should still be viewed as a potential corrective pullback rather than automatic confirmation of a new bullish trend.

This distinction is important because a corrective Wave B can produce a relatively strong rebound before the market resumes its larger corrective decline.

Current Support Area Becomes Critical

Price is currently trading close to the green support zone highlighted on the chart.

This area is important because price has already reacted from this region following the Wave A decline.

As long as the current support structure remains intact, there is room for XAUUSD to develop a recovery toward the projected Wave B zone around 4,450–4,500.

However, if price fails to hold this support and breaks below the zone with strong bearish momentum, the Wave B interpretation would need to be reassessed.

In that situation, the market could potentially continue lower before completing a larger Wave B recovery.

Therefore, the immediate focus should remain on how price behaves around the current support area.

Wave C Becomes the Main Downside Target After Wave B

Once Wave B potentially reaches completion, the chart projects a possible Wave C decline.

The main Wave C target is located around the 261.8 Fibonacci extension, approximately in the 4,010–4,055 region based on the levels displayed on the chart.

This area is marked as the potential C target zone.

The projected structure is therefore:

Wave A ↓ → Wave B pullback ↑ → Wave C ↓

If price first reaches the Wave B zone around 4,450–4,500 and subsequently produces a clear bearish rejection, the ABC corrective structure would become more evident.

The reaction around the Wave B zone will therefore be particularly important.

A strong rejection could indicate that the temporary recovery is losing momentum and that sellers are attempting to regain control.

Fibonacci 261.8% Becomes an Important Target

The 261.8 Fibonacci extension is one of the key technical references in this setup.

The projected target area is approximately 4,010–4,055, where the chart identifies the potential completion area for Wave C.

However, a Fibonacci target should not be interpreted as a guaranteed price destination.

Price may react before reaching the exact Fibonacci level if strong support develops, while a temporary overshoot is also possible if bearish momentum becomes particularly strong.

For this reason, price action around the 4,010–4,055 region will be important.

Traders should monitor whether XAUUSD begins to show:

• Strong bullish rejection.

• Bullish reversal candlesticks.

• Loss of bearish momentum.

• Higher lows on lower timeframes.

• A change in the Elliott Wave structure.

These factors can help determine whether the projected Wave C is approaching completion.

Awesome Oscillator Shows Bearish Momentum Remains

The Awesome Oscillator (AO) at the bottom of the chart remains below the zero line.

This indicates that the broader momentum is still carrying bearish pressure.

However, the latest negative AO bars appear smaller compared with the earlier bearish bars.

This suggests that bearish momentum may be losing some of its intensity.

Such a development can support the possibility of a short-term recovery, which would be consistent with the projected Wave B scenario.

Nevertheless, weakening bearish momentum does not automatically confirm a bullish reversal.

As long as AO remains below the zero line and price has not established a stronger bullish structure, bearish pressure should remain part of the analysis.

The most important confirmation will continue to come from price structure, support and resistance behaviour, and the development of the Elliott Wave pattern.

Main XAUUSD Scenarios

Scenario 1 — Wave B Pullback

If the current support area holds, XAUUSD could develop the following structure:

Current support → price rises → Wave B → 4,450–4,500 → bearish rejection → Wave C

This is the main corrective structure projected on the chart.

Under this scenario, the recovery toward 4,450–4,500 would represent a corrective rebound rather than confirmation of a new long-term bullish trend.

If price reaches the zone and begins forming lower highs or bearish rejection candles, attention would shift toward the potential Wave C decline.

Scenario 2 — Price Continues Lower

If the current support fails, XAUUSD could continue declining without developing a large Wave B rebound.

In this situation, the 4,200 region becomes an intermediate area to monitor, followed by the major projected Wave C target zone around 4,010–4,055.

A decisive breakdown would therefore require the current Elliott Wave count to be reassessed, particularly if price begins producing a series of lower lows.

Key Levels to Watch

Current Support:
4,270–4,300

Initial Resistance:
4,400

Potential Wave B Target:
4,450–4,500

Higher Resistance Area:
4,520–4,560

Potential Wave C Target:
4,010–4,055

Major Fibonacci Target:
261.8%

Invalidation and Structure Risk

The projected ABC structure remains dependent on price respecting the key support and resistance areas identified on the chart.

If XAUUSD produces a sustained bullish breakout well above the projected Wave B resistance area and continues establishing higher highs and higher lows, the bearish Wave C projection would need to be reassessed.

Likewise, an immediate breakdown through the current support area would weaken the expectation of a significant Wave B recovery.

Therefore, the Elliott Wave count should be treated as a dynamic structure, with confirmation coming from actual price action rather than the wave count alone.

Conclusion

The XAUUSD Daily chart continues to show a potential ABC corrective structure following the significant decline from the approximately 4,700 high.

Price is currently positioned around the 4,286 area, close to an important support zone that could potentially provide the foundation for a Wave B recovery.

If this support holds, XAUUSD could recover toward the 4,450–4,500 region, which represents the main projected Wave B pullback zone.

A bearish rejection from this area would then strengthen the possibility of a subsequent Wave C decline, with the major projected target located around 4,010–4,055, corresponding to the 261.8 Fibonacci extension.

The overall roadmap is:

Support holds → Wave B recovery → 4,450–4,500 → bearish rejection/pullback → Wave C decline → 4,010–4,055.

The key areas to monitor are therefore the 4,270–4,300 support zone, the 4,450–4,500 Wave B area, and the 4,010–4,055 Fibonacci 261.8 target zone.

This interpretation remains dependent on the price structure continuing to respect the projected Elliott Wave scenario.

Mohd Zulkifli Mohd Din

Market Analyst at FXGT

Mohd Zulkifli Mohd Din, also known as Coach Zul, has over 15 years of experience in forex trading. He is a developer of the FMCBR Trading Method, which combines two methods to analyse the market. The first one is Fibo Musang (FM), and the second is Candlesticks Break and Retest (CBR). Together, they form FMCBR, a combination of both abbreviations. These two methods complement each other and help traders enter the market. Coach Zul is one of the top ShowFx World Online speakers. He brings together over 1,000 participants at every webinar. He has a network of over 5,000 students from Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei.

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